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Selling Options on Futures?
Started:July 19th, 2011 (06:16 PM) by ron99 Views / Replies:568,490 / 5,727
Last Reply:December 2nd, 2016 (12:40 PM) Attachments:642

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Selling Options on Futures?

Old September 9th, 2015, 12:33 AM   #4991 (permalink)
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Selling Deep OTM options video trade review

I said I would create a separate futures.io (formerly BMT) journal to share on this subject, that hasn't happened yet. In the mean time I have created this trade review - https://youtu.be/SEcpw2-b8Vs and I will follow up with another video comparing a spread trade.

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Old September 9th, 2015, 02:47 AM   #4992 (permalink)
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Chubbly View Post
I do not advocate or endorse either of these 2 websites. I am merely posting for comparison.

I just did some quick searching around to see if I could find anyone else posting results that were selling options on the major index in 2008 to compare to the one CafeGrande posted. I have no way of verifying either website results.
Both posted about the same loss of -30% in Oct 2008 and they both did poorly in 2014 which isn't surprising as they seem to be following pretty much the same strategy. Both are newsletter/signal services. You could likely do better without paying them and by learning what you are doing which is more important than following signals blindly.

10PercentPerMonth.com

Return on Investment | Monthly Cash Thru Options

Edit - It also looks like LJM did poorly in 2014 on their 3 funds 2.35% 3.24% 0.98% which makes me wonder how much different their strategy is compared to these little newsletter guys...
FYI - S&P in 2014 was 13.69%

10PercentPerMonth.com

March to May 2010, that draw down...

At least they're frank about it

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Old September 9th, 2015, 09:26 AM   #4993 (permalink)
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Yes, a 69% loss could be the type of loss that ends your trading career.
I would say this reinforces the need to be mechanical in your stops with Options, although not always possible in a true crash like we had where there are moves that cause the market to hit the breaker. I had Stop Limits in place but the crash jumped over them and in one instance the Bids completely disappeared for hours on end so I wasn't getting out no matter how bad I wanted to.

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Old September 9th, 2015, 09:56 AM   #4994 (permalink)
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That other service also had a bad May 2010

index etf credit spread iron condor option advisory options trading system service using puts and calls, spreads and condors trader strategies

What I don't like is that they keep say "we were forced to roll our spreads at no cost" when in reality When you roll a position, you’re buying to close an existing position and selling to open a new one.

Someone who is naive would think you could just roll forever to get out of bad positions

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Old September 9th, 2015, 09:57 AM   #4995 (permalink)
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Hills View Post
I have been using Ron's strategy for a while till 2 weeks ago (as many guys here). I preferred to close my positions 2 days before black monday and saved a lot of money. I just lost 10% of my account. Now I am pretty sure we should wait at least 1 year to continue using it. My vision is bullish.

On the other hand, if you risk 1% of your account in a trade buying options, and you thinkmyou can make 30-50% of profits, why not to try? In my case, if CL starts its final capitulization I thinkmwe can see it at 30$ or less. My Nov CL 39 options could settle at 9. I bought them at 0,49. It's 18 times my investment. I think it makes sense that trade.

I have closed my positions at 0,53. I guess it will take longer to settle at 30 so theta will erase value very fast

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Old September 9th, 2015, 11:03 AM   #4996 (permalink)
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Number of 2% moves in S&P in the past 13 sessions: seven.

Number of 2% moves in prior 167 sessions: one.

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Old September 9th, 2015, 11:13 AM   #4997 (permalink)
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ron99 View Post
Number of 2% moves in S&P in the past 13 sessions: seven.

Number of 2% moves in prior 167 sessions: one.

A similar thing happened in 2007 - I measured moves in terms of ATR, i.e. 1ATR, 2ATR, etc. Before the crisis began moves of greater than 2ATR were highly unlikely. Once it got into full swing moves greater than 2ATR were much more common.

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Old September 9th, 2015, 12:44 PM   #4998 (permalink)
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Downtrends If/When


ron99 View Post
Number of 2% moves in S&P in the past 13 sessions: seven.

Number of 2% moves in prior 167 sessions: one.

Michael Harris just posted a piece on the frequency of 2 1/2% moves in a downtrend.
As he states he is using close < 200-day moving average to define one.

No specific point to me posting this other then a tie in with the 2% moves.


://tinyurl.com/nb79wgf

PS Can't post links yet so add http
PSS Sorry. No bad intent meant by workaround.

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Old September 9th, 2015, 12:52 PM   #4999 (permalink)
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This is the 5,000th post in this thread.

Thanks to all that contributed!

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Old September 9th, 2015, 01:04 PM   #5000 (permalink)
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Chubbly View Post

Someone who is naive would think you could just roll forever to get out of bad positions

Probably because that's what they hear on TastyTrade.

(I'm paraphrasing and being a little bit of a smart alec, but based on some conversations I've followed about TastyTrade, they have a tendency to stick with a losing options trade, convinced it will come around eventually).

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