Very important stuff here for seasonal tendencies.
As for the grains: the crop progress report came out today with a bullish bias. However corn (May in particular) settled about 14 cents below the reaction high. The current price is almost at the 50% retracement level. The seasonal tendency for corn this time of year is for prices to be range-bound, pull back towards July, then move up in the summer.
My 2 cents is still range-bound here. I'm giving the grains a few more days to digest this news and see how this snow front will affect wheat prices too. No worries, selling options gives you plenty of time to decide what to do....pun very well intended here.
The following user says Thank You to opts for this post:
Yeah, I am delighted too and didn't think OX would go that low. But I did start the conversation by telling them that I only pay a flat rate of $2.32 at IB and that is also inclusive of all fees and paying $12.99 plus fees is unjustified no matter how great the services were at OX. They put me on hold for a few minutes and then came back with $3.99 no strings attached. I am glad I asked.
The following user says Thank You to MJ888 for this post:
In 2012 Mar corn was down 40 cents on the bearish report on Jan 12th. The next day it was down 12 more cents. From that point to the end of Feb it was up 54 cents even though there was a bearish report.
In 2011 Mar corn was up 24 cents on a bullish report. From 1/12 to 2/25 Mar corn was up 81 more cents.
Corn OI gained 80-90,000 in those 6 weeks. Hedging and speculating for the new year.
With the bullish report, I can easily see corn running higher for 6 weeks.
The following user says Thank You to ron99 for this post:
I leave the market price line checked and click calculate. If you then hit the Trade Now button it will bring up the correct futures options order form. If you click on the bid price, if that is the price you want to sell the option, it puts that price in the limit price box.
I suspect the limit price on trade calc are for something other than futures options.
I have said previously that I was bullish on Oil and twice bought calls which made a couple of dollars each.
The reason for my bullish mode can be seen from the chart below.
There was massive buying in October when consolidating at the 90-95 range. These buyers mainly held despite the crash down to 85's where they rebought or new buyers entered.
The subsequent pushes to 90 have been met with selling creating a distribution effect. The resolution of the Fiscal Cliff has rocketed prices as high as 94. At the same time the selling has continued and the volume delta has now touched the blue line. From a delta analysis point of view this says that the buyers from the lows at 85 have mainly covered their longs, or an inventory grab has occured.
This means we need new buyers to come in (or sellers to buy to cover) for prices to move on up. There aren't many sellers holding shorts as much of the selling was long covering. What there still is though, is 40000 buyers holding from the 90-95's area, so they are basically at break even at the moment.
It maybe they are long term bulls waiting for the 100's. I would expect some further consolidation in this range and it will be interesting to see if the delta bleeds off further or a seaonal dip down is bought into.
On a personal note I missed the latest advance due to fiscal cliff worries so I would love to see a pull back to 90-91 area, resistance becoming support, as an area to buy calls again or at least sell puts.
Last edited by britkid99; January 13th, 2013 at 10:59 AM.