If you want to see how CL option prices and margin behaved during recent price swings you can get some free data from CME. They have 2013-2014 option data available as SPAN files. You'll need some tools to sift through the data, though ... check out the PC-SPAN thread if you are interested.
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As above has said, experience is better than backtest but why not do both. You can find free data from since April 1983 till now. I chose a specific OTM strike away from futures price at the specific premium and a set stop loss based on premium level and extracted the range for different IV levels to extrapolate a rough formula for backtesting then comparing it against actual price movements. It's simpler than it sounds but quite a fair bit of work/number crunching to do especially if you do different "out of money-ness" and different stops all the way back to 1983 but a good study I think to get a rough feel then compare it in the live market going forward.
I start study HE futures prices for long term trend. Are there any connection between front month futures price and price behaviour? I didn't catch any...
For example, HE forward curve show decline. Does it mean that HE price will be do the same?
In attachment HE Forward curves (prices from Barchart).
My plan is to get back into selling options on futures; I did it very successfully last year (from a lot of help from people on here) and at that time i was on TOS---which due to very personal reasons I dont plan on going back to. I have a portfolio that I sell puts and covered calls as well as mutual funds on.
Which provider do you guys think is the best to move my money to? Right now im at fidelity-----
Portfolio Margin doesn't apply to options on futures. You are looking for "SPAN Minimum" margin. IB, TOS, OX and most of the other big guys don't offer SPAN minimum nor are they particularly friendly to sellers of DOTM options.
I have had good success with Carley Garner at DeCarley Trading Group. Carley is an Introducing Broker and can open an account with several different FCMs. I have 2 accounts with Carley, one with Open E Cry which is owned by Gain Capital and Crossland Futures, which was just bought out by Wedbush.
My account at OEC has been easier to manage just because their risk control mechanisms work differently than Crossland/Wedbush. I have had issues getting trades done in my Crossland account because of their risk control setup. I wasn't using very much of my cash balance in margin (less than 33%), but Crossland required DeCarley to manually put my trades in for awhile. Carley worked out a resolution with them and its smooth sailing, at the moment.
I can unequivocally recommend Carley Garner at DeCarley Trading. GREAT customer service.
I have no affiliations or connection with her firm. I'm just a satisfied customer.
Last edited by mu2pilot; September 15th, 2014 at 04:56 PM.
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