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Most of the huge movement in KC futures has been specs short covering and not buying longs. They cut their number of shorts from 44k to 14k (as of 2/25) in 4 weeks.
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Here are margins for NG $6.00 calls. Apr IM is 1.35 times June IM even though futures are about the same price.
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Those ROI numbers are not correct because they are using the IM for the whole period instead of the increased IM required as it gets closer to expiration. The Apr one is correct. But I wouldn't be selling Apr 6.00 NG with the below normal temps predicted.
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I have tried the demo for Seasonalgo HTTP://www.seasonalgo.com/advantages It is far better than Moore's Research Center for seasonal charts and data. I am going to switch when my MRCI subscription expires.
They just sent me this email (below) with a free offer to try a full access demo for a month. Normally they just give you corn for the demo.
I've been using SeasonalAlgo.com since October and agree that they provide a lot more analysis capabality than MRCI. I've been primarily using them for outright futures spreads (rather than options).
Eudamonia,
I have been trying to work seasonality analysis into my trading for the past 6 months. I started by just coming to terms with what this meant. So I did some coding and started charting in excel seasonal charts for different future option series. I would appreciate hearing from you to learn how you use this website. I also only trade future options and would appreciate knowing what part future spread trading plays in your overall trading. This may help me continue to look at diversifying my activities. Thanks in Advance.
I would recommend reviewing the spread trades recommended at MRCI and SeasonalAlgo and do your own testing to see how they would suit you. That is what I did. If you want to discuss this further please start a new thread and send me an @. Don't want to clutter Ron's thread here.
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