I think people can sign up for Dough.com for free. With it, you can get great info on your options positions or potential trades. I think it uses info from Thinkorswim so your margins may be different and thereby complicate your analysis.
Dough is a recent platform just rolled out by the same guys who originally created ThinkorSwim -Tom Sosnoff, Tom Preston, et.al.
I'm a Spread/Arb/Quant/Relative Value trader so I don't have strong directional opinions.
Not sure there is a difference between a fear of running out and speculators driving up! One leads to the other.
Talking to people in the industry, people seem very concerned about their ability to buy real physical molecules. It's almost a "well, we may run out but I'll have already bought mine" attitude. Nobody wants to be the person who doesn't have the physical if the proverbial S hits the Fan. While they may not be the people buying and selling NG futures, that sure does give the financial bulls confidence.
While I did quietly laugh at Ron's comment yesterday about manipulation, one does have to wonder what is driving prices when we are up 50c one day and then immediately down 25c-30c the next day on nothing at all. (while Feb may not be down quite as much as H, Feb prices are down 20c with H printings -27c)
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NG trading Friday(+.452)/Monday(-.335) and Wed(+.524)/Thu(-.294 now) are prime examples of markets being influenced more by trading of specs than trading on fundamentals.
Friday was last trading day for large traders to get to the 1,000 position limit for the last 3 days of trading. Prices skyrocket. Next day prices crash when temps are about to be below zero in many places for several days.
Wed is last trading day and prices skyrocket. Next day prices crash. That's not fundamentals.
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I know some of you still have some NG calls on so I'll continue to post this at least for the next few weeks.
6-Feb EIA Release EARLY Estimates.
First estimates coming in, still subject to a lot of changes.
First survey I have seen had 13 respondents and an average of -268.2 & a median of -270 Range was -250 to -382 with standard deviation 9.7
Last year same week -129
5 year average same week -151
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