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Selling Options on Futures?
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Selling Options on Futures?

  #2781 (permalink)
Elite Member
amsterdam
 
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thanks Barrington,

can anybody tell me the IM & MM for the put 90 (CL h)?
i wonder what happens (on both IB & OX if eg. the fut goes down $10) (so my put 80 get the (im&mm) values of the put 90, ignoring time decay)

for IB,
for the put 90, IM=4233, MM=3380
So IM would go from $1902 -> $4233 and MM from $1522 -> $3380 (premium from $90 to $640)

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  #2782 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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crito View Post
thanks Barrington,

can anybody tell me the IM & MM for the put 90 (CL h)?
i wonder what happens (on both IB & OX if eg. the fut goes down $10) (so my put 80 get the (im&mm) values of the put 90, ignoring time decay)

for IB,
for the put 90, IM=4233, MM=3380
So IM would go from $1902 -> $4233 and MM from $1522 -> $3380 (premium from $90 to $640)

OX
1068 IM 971 MM

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  #2783 (permalink)
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crito View Post
thanks Barrington,

can anybody tell me the IM & MM for the put 90 (CL h)?
i wonder what happens (on both IB & OX if eg. the fut goes down $10) (so my put 80 get the (im&mm) values of the put 90, ignoring time decay)

for IB,
for the put 90, IM=4233, MM=3380
So IM would go from $1902 -> $4233 and MM from $1522 -> $3380 (premium from $90 to $640)

Crito-

Check out this thread on futures.io (formerly BMT).

https://futures.io/options-cfd-trading/29125-pc-span.html

It is a discussion about SPAN margin and you'll find in the later parts of this thread an excel spreadsheet that you can download to calculate your own SPAN margins. Everything you need to know about calculating SPAN margin is in this thread. It just takes time to go through it.

As you're aware, IB and a a lot of other brokers require slightly more to a LOT more (in the case of IB) in margin, but it is nice to know what the exchange minimum is. There are good brokers out there who charge SPAN minimum. DeCarley is one example.

mu2pilot

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  #2784 (permalink)
Elite Member
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ron99 View Post
OX
1068 IM 971 MM

thanks Ron.

ok, its obvious that from a ROI point of view OX is far better.
also i read (still catching up, now at page 50) that you can talk down those transaction costs.

But on excess money point...

At IB the IM goes from 1902 to 4233 (=2,2x) (if the fut drops $10, put 80 vs put 90)
At OX the IM goes from 208 to 1068 (=5,1x)

i guess it depends if you would act before the CL drops $10 but it would mean that if you keep 2 times excess at IB you need (just below) 5x at OX.
so relatively OX margin rises faster than on IB
If you diverse enough that wouldn't be a problem, and also depends on how often a position goes against you and how soon you like to react...

so i guess its better to start with IB and by the time you reach the master level its time to switch

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  #2785 (permalink)
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mu2pilot View Post
Crito-

Check out this thread on futures.io (formerly BMT).

https://futures.io/options-cfd-trading/29125-pc-span.html

It is a discussion about SPAN margin and you'll find in the later parts of this thread an excel spreadsheet that you can download to calculate your own SPAN margins. Everything you need to know about calculating SPAN margin is in this thread. It just takes time to go through it.

As you're aware, IB and a a lot of other brokers require slightly more to a LOT more (in the case of IB) in margin, but it is nice to know what the exchange minimum is. There are good brokers out there who charge SPAN minimum. DeCarley is one example.

mu2pilot

thanks mu2pilot, (was typing the other post) will check it out.

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  #2786 (permalink)
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MJ888 View Post
Seasonal Overview | Signal Financial Group

Hey guys check out this link for seasonal charts. It seems Signal charts are more up to date than the CSS charts.

i just found this old post (thanks mj888)
the seanoal charts are great also nice to see the current fut

here a coffee chart with current trend.
Seasonal Charts: Coffee | Signal Financial Group

Anybody have a trade idea on coffee?, if we believe the seasonals, it seems we have reached a bottom but puts are not worth selling (at least the ones i found).
Both sesonal & current bottoms out around first half of nov.

if you look at H, K N, U & Z contracts they all go higher...
Just no idea how to make a nice trade (apart from buying the fut or buy a call which i refuse

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  #2787 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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ron99 View Post
FYI

The last 5 first trading days of the new year the March ES contract has been up double digits.

09 +25.50
10 +18.00
11 +12.25
12 +19.50
13 +37.00 This was affected by Congress waiting until Jan 1st to pass bill.

Cashin: 'Mild bafflement' on stock drop


Quoting 
Art Cashin says there's "mild bafflement" on the NYSE floor about why stocks are down on this first trading day of the year.

Cashin, UBS' director of floor operations at the NYSE, told CNBC's Bob Pisani around midday that "you have some disjointed things. Gold has popped. We were kind of looking forward to that given the tax selling... But they're also looking for prefunded IRAs and other things to take the stock averages higher and that hasn't occurred."

Cashin adds, "I've been hearing convoluted theories about it having something to do with the pop in the (U.S.) dollar but I can't get anyone to explain to me where that arbitrage lies."

He does think there could be something to the theory that U.S. stock are reacting to weak economic data from China. "It could be that China overrides everything."

Watch Cashin: 'Mild bafflement' on stock drop

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  #2788 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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EIA Natural Gas Storage Report Expectations 3-Jan-14 for week ending 27-Dec-13

The largest survey I see (34 respondents) shows
Average -114
Median -114
Range -99 to -139
Std Dev 10.0

This week last year -126
5yr Average -121

Note that several of the smaller surveys I've seen have much higher expected draws but they all seem to suffer from very low respondent count.

Actual report will be available at Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report - EIA at 1030 EPT

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  #2789 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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SMCJB, why do so many analysts and media want to compare a highly variable number like last year's weekly withdrawal with this year's? Statistically it is not significant data. I fail to see anything that can be gained from looking at that comparison. Obviously the weather is not the same weekly one year to the next.

It is like comparing what a baseball hitter did the first week of June with the prior year. Nothing can be gained from it.

I can see comparing inventory at the start and end of winter with prior years. That is valuable. Or withdrawals so far this winter. But weekly numbers? Nope.

Even the 5 year average is being highly skewed by the highest in history inventory numbers from 2012 and has lost value as a comparison.

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  #2790 (permalink)
Market Wizard
St Thomas, USVI
 
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Favorite Futures: Energy
 
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I agree completely.

What's a lot more interesting,, and more important, is comparing the actual withdrawal with the actual weather, imports, exports etc and hence what the 'unexpected' change in storage was. That's actually available out there as well but you have to dig for it a lot more.

Other thing to consider is, while some of these analyst estimates are the result of some sophisticated analysis and models, some of them are also very little more than throwing darts at dartboards.


Last edited by SMCJB; January 3rd, 2014 at 09:38 AM. Reason: added last paragraph
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