Selling Options on Futures? (Page 260) - Options on Futures | futures.io
futures.io futures trading
 

Go Back   futures.io

> Futures Trading, News, Charts and Platforms > Traders Hideout > Options on Futures


Selling Options on Futures?
Started:July 19th, 2011 (06:16 PM) by ron99 Views / Replies:568,106 / 5,727
Last Reply:December 2nd, 2016 (12:40 PM) Attachments:642

Welcome to futures.io.

Welcome, Guest!

This forum was established to help traders (especially futures traders) by openly sharing indicators, strategies, methods, trading journals and discussing the psychology of trading.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading forums:
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive on our forums.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendor advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in openness and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, it is not something tangible you can download.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.


You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free and simple, and we will never resell your private information.

-- Big Mike
     

Reply
 642  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread

Selling Options on Futures?

Old December 13th, 2013, 01:29 PM   #2591 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Houston TX
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: XTrader
Broker/Data: Advantage Futures
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
Posts: 1,580 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 1,392 given, 2,352 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


ron99 View Post
SMCJB, are you looking for

Category=End of Day Report
Market=ICE Futures US-Energy Division
Report=DMR IFED Futures?

Which contract would you look at?

That's it. Thanks Ron
Symbol is H.
H- Henry LD1 Fixed Price Swap Future

Shows ICE OI increased 88,894 lots for report date Dec 12th, which I assume is todays report for trading on 12th since the settlement prices agree.
Note ICE contract is 2500 MMBtu vs NG 10000 MMbtu so 88,894 ice lots = 22,223 NG Lots.

Reply With Quote
     
The following 2 users say Thank You to SMCJB for this post:
     

Old December 13th, 2013, 01:35 PM   #2592 (permalink)
Elite Member
Steubenville Ohio
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: OX, OEC, RJO
Favorite Futures: Options on Futures
 
Posts: 179 since Sep 2012
Thanks: 24 given, 198 received

20 day RSI is 73, 14 day 80... usually just touching 70 has folks saying a market is overbought.

Sent from my Nexus 5 using Tapatalk

Reply With Quote
     
The following user says Thank You to Dudetooth for this post:
     

Old December 13th, 2013, 01:41 PM   #2593 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
west palm beach + Florida
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 31 since Mar 2013
Thanks: 10 given, 38 received

NG Technicals



ron99 View Post
Hey tech traders. How over bought is NG now?

I called for continuation of bullish move last week and I think the spike phase is ending/about to end now which usually is followed by channel up or down...My take is that it still can go for 50-60 cents (and 3-4 weeks) before turning down for good unless weather warms up greatly causing the channel to go down...More probabilities of it going higher...

One very interesting observation is super high volatility of March contact - March 6 calls are about same price April 5 calls even though March futures are only about 20 cents more. Done any have any thoughts regarding it? What causing it ? How to use it (other than writing naked....)

It is the volatility going through roof that is making holding very hard....

Regards
Sam

Reply With Quote
     
The following user says Thank You to seemasp for this post:
     

Old December 13th, 2013, 01:57 PM   #2594 (permalink)
10 out of 10
Sacramento, CA
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: None
Broker/Data: OX and DeCarley
Favorite Futures: Futures options
 
eudamonia's Avatar
 
Posts: 310 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 299 given, 423 received


rosho01 View Post
Cheers for the TA.

Out of interest why do these moves have to happen before xmas / this week?

Using TA i see prices potentially nudging up to 4.9, its a trend & you know what they say about them, i just dont get the deadlines you have noted with re to post Xmas/pre NY volumes (across many instruments) are often v low & if participants have business to do pre year end, then price & or volatility can move.

From a technical standpoint nothing "has" to happen before Christmas. That being said sustained trends don't just go straight up with no pullbacks which is exactly what NG is currently doing. I don't see anything right now that suggests that the current NG move is a "sustainable trend". It is highly probably that the next "correction" will be a strong reversal.

My statement about xmas was based on the following:

From a seasonal standpoint all of the past 23 years have experienced a precipitous decline in NG during the last week of December and/or first week of January.

The current weather and supply fundamentals.

Reply With Quote
     

Old December 13th, 2013, 01:58 PM   #2595 (permalink)
Elite Member
Sacramento CA/USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Infinity, TOS, OX, Lightspeed
Favorite Futures: Options
 
Posts: 3 since Apr 2013
Thanks: 1 given, 2 received

Futures Edge on FIO

ron99 View Post
Hey tech traders. How over bought is NG now?

Having spent a lot of time in the equities world where manipulation is the name of the game (and very little in NG), I find this discussion very interesting. I would love to think that NG price is microscopically linked to supply. However, is this market manipulateable? Can price overshoot by $1? $2 Looking at a chart back to 2009, this thing can get to 5/5.5 easily. Can suppliers hold back supply to cause price shocks? For you experienced NG traders, is supply well known enough and supply linked to price enough for traders to call prices within $1? thanks

Reply With Quote
     

Old December 13th, 2013, 01:59 PM   #2596 (permalink)
Market Wizard
OH
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: QST
Broker/Data: QST, DeCarley Trading, Gain
Favorite Futures: Options on Futures
 
Posts: 2,323 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 634 given, 3,902 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Fundamentals overrule technicals.

NG will only go to 5.00 if the weather from the north pole settles on the US.

Reply With Quote
     

Old December 13th, 2013, 02:18 PM   #2597 (permalink)
Market Wizard
OH
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: QST
Broker/Data: QST, DeCarley Trading, Gain
Favorite Futures: Options on Futures
 
Posts: 2,323 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 634 given, 3,902 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


john99 View Post
Having spent a lot of time in the equities world where manipulation is the name of the game (and very little in NG), I find this discussion very interesting. I would love to think that NG price is microscopically linked to supply. However, is this market manipulateable? Can price overshoot by $1? $2 Looking at a chart back to 2009, this thing can get to 5/5.5 easily. Can suppliers hold back supply to cause price shocks? For you experienced NG traders, is supply well known enough and supply linked to price enough for traders to call prices within $1? thanks

Are NG futures manipulatable? Oh yeah. Just google Amaranth 2006.

Suppliers (owners of NG in current storage) hold back supplies? Doubtful. Or else the inventory report this week wouldn't have been below predictions for the amount of withdrawal.

Now the owners of wells (suppliers of storage) could shut them down to increase price. But even in 2012 when prices were very low, NG production increased.

The US EIA gives out weekly inventory numbers so that supply is well known.

A lot of users of NG are locked into using it and using more of it when it gets colder. The wild card is electric generating plants that can switch from NG to coal and back. If NG gets too expensive they will switch to coal. If NG gets cheap they will switch to NG.

Coal is the cap for NG prices.


Quoting 
In early 2013, coal recovered some market share as natural gas prices rose. By late March, wholesale natural gas prices at the Henry Hub trading center were back to $4 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). In response, electricity generators used 16% less natural gas this March compared with March 2012.

Year-to-date natural gas use for electric power generation is down from 2012 - Today in Energy - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Reply With Quote
     
The following 2 users say Thank You to ron99 for this post:
     

Old December 13th, 2013, 02:28 PM   #2598 (permalink)
Elite Member
Prague, Czech Republic
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: AgenaTrader, Track'nTrade
Broker/Data: DeCarley/OEC, IBKR, IQFeed
Favorite Futures: futures, options
 
Posts: 180 since Sep 2010
Thanks: 66 given, 83 received


ron99 View Post
Fundamentals overrule technicals.

NG will only go to 5.00 if the weather from the north pole settles on the US.

I am a tech trader (as you may already know from my previous noob fundamental comments) and may agree with you that fundamentals overrule technicals here. However if that is not the case, here are my two cents:

First the move to the bullish territory on 11/29 had almost no resistance, therefore such strong action. We are greatly overbought right now on the daily (50 days CCI over 210 and heading down with current price action, nice divergence on the 14 days CCI). This does not mean the market cannot stay overbought for an extended period of time, however I would expect short-term pullback to the 4.100-ish levels.
Unfortunately the weekly charts show a different picture. 14 period CCI is overbought, just touching 200, but the 50 period CCI just crossed 0 couple of days ago. We have just switched from bearish to bullish territory on the weekly, so that there is A LOT of upside action possible. There is a strong resistance at the 4.690 levels, which may cap any further movement. To do this we have to break 4.490 levels first and stay above (May 2011 - April 2013 trendline). In case it will not hold the 4.490 levels, measured move will bring us just notch over 5.000 price levels.

Summary: if we break and stay above 4.490, there is nothing to stop NG to go to 4.690 level. In case this will not hold either - say hello to "polar weather" and 5.000 mark!
In case either of these levels (4.490 or 4.690) hold, we should be back at 3.825 or lower. This might be supported by seasonals as well. As there was almost no resistance on the move up, there would be a little support on the move down, therefore the move might actually be quite hysterical.
BTW, NG nicely respects cycles, which support pullback theory starting about week from now. Last but not least, measured cyclical move should not break 4.490-ish level (note that it is the same as above mentioned trendline breakout), which seems to be the key price level for next days.


Last edited by rani; December 13th, 2013 at 02:53 PM.
Reply With Quote
     
The following user says Thank You to rani for this post:
     

Old December 13th, 2013, 02:46 PM   #2599 (permalink)
Market Wizard
OH
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: QST
Broker/Data: QST, DeCarley Trading, Gain
Favorite Futures: Options on Futures
 
Posts: 2,323 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 634 given, 3,902 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

The 22 largest areas by vol traded (>200k) on the ICE Day Ahead Natural Gas Price Report (after deleting the one that dropped 0.780) averaged a 0.086 drop in prices today.

Henry dropped 0.045

Reply With Quote
     

Old December 13th, 2013, 02:55 PM   #2600 (permalink)
Market Wizard
OH
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: QST
Broker/Data: QST, DeCarley Trading, Gain
Favorite Futures: Options on Futures
 
Posts: 2,323 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 634 given, 3,902 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


I wish I could figure out a way to know when to buy options and make the big bucks.

Mar 7 NG calls were at 1 tick. Now they are at 30 ticks.

2,900% ROI with minimal risk.

Reply With Quote
     

Reply



futures.io > Futures Trading, News, Charts and Platforms > Traders Hideout > Options on Futures > Selling Options on Futures?

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)
 

NinjaTrader 8: Features and Enhancements, Tips and Tricks

Dec 6
 

Al Brooks: Stop Losing when a Good Trade goes Bad, Correcting Mistakes

Elite only
 

Trading Technologies: Algo Design Lab hands-on

Dec 13
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Crude Oil (CL) futures inverse pairing options Big Mike Commodities Futures Trading 8 December 12th, 2013 12:00 PM
Recommend futures, options Broker? sam1197 Brokers and Data Feeds 17 March 27th, 2013 01:42 AM
Trading Futures with options as protection Gooffy2010 Commodities Futures Trading 6 October 2nd, 2012 05:55 PM
Selling Njniatrader sam1197 NinjaTrader 22 June 28th, 2012 01:40 PM
Zen-Fire Futures options tici88 Brokers and Data Feeds 1 July 30th, 2011 10:16 AM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 02:07 AM.

Copyright © 2016 by futures.io. All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
 
no new posts

Page generated 2016-12-04 in 0.16 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.146.141.60