Ouch, just woke up here in Aus and checked my NG positions. Not a good start to the day. I ended up buying back half of my Feb 5.2s and then went on to sell some Mar 6.5s for 0.013.
This has been my first losing trade for the year. Bugger. This is purely from following the methodology that Ron uses, more or less.
A big difference i have noticed is my approach to the loss. Previously i would just dump and run and get out of the position. This time i am more looking to manage the loss and looking for opportunities that the rise in NG has given to try and recoup those losses.
I think i remember Ron posting a few weeks ago that he was selling NG Puts and i thought, why would he being doing that NG will probably go down. I should have taken notice of the master!
The new weather models come out mid-morning. This mornings model showed an 11-15 day colder than it did yesterday. Note that it's not necessarily important as to how cold that actually is, but that the forecast got colder day on day. I believe that was the catalyst for NG swinging from negative to positive this morning.
For what its worth...
In the EIA report released Thursday 14th November for week ending Friday 8th November we had 3,834 BCF of Natural Gas in working storage. This was 80 BCF lower than the same week last year and 58 BCF above the five year average.
Tomorrow we expect the EIA to announce stocks dropped 90 BCF in the last week to 3524 BCF which would be 282 BCF below last year and 145 BCF below the five year average.
Observation >> in the last 4 weeks we have depleted Natural Gas storage by about 200 BCF more than normal for this time of year.
Natural Gas Prices for physical Delivery TOMORROW
(These are real prices for physical gas that is going to flow down a pipeline, not some financial product)
- New England $20.29 (Algonquin)
- New York City $17.10 (Transco Z6)
- Louisiana $4.23 (Henry)
- Houston $4.19 (HSC & Katy)
- Chicago $4.58
- San Fran $4.71 (PG&E)
- Southern California $4.72 (Socal Border)
Observation >> All of these prices were set this morning before prices rallied. Futures prices are in line with Gulf Coast supply area spot physical gas prices. Spot physical prices at market areas are considerably higher than supply areas/futures prices.
I'm not saying that prices should go up, just saying that there is a strong argument that fundamentals support current Natural Gas Futures Prices.
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Something else effecting the market is the huge selling in Cal 14 and Cal 15.
When Cal 14 rallied thru $4 last week it traded three times its normal trading volume on ICE.
I believe this is why we have seen the Jan14-Apr14 spread widen almost 15c in the last week.
If there wasn't the selling in the back I suspect the curve in general would be even higher, and probably the prompt as well