Selling Options on Futures? - Options on Futures | futures io social trading
futures io futures trading


Selling Options on Futures?
Updated: Views / Replies:638,675 / 6,046
Created: by ron99 Attachments:688

Welcome to futures io.

Welcome, Guest!

This forum was established to help traders (especially futures traders) by openly sharing indicators, strategies, methods, trading journals and discussing the psychology of trading.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading forums:
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive on our forums.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendor advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in openness and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, it is not something tangible you can download.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.


You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free and simple, and we will never resell your private information.

-- Big Mike

Reply
 688  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

Selling Options on Futures?

  #2521 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Cleveland, OH
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: QST
Broker/Data: QST, DeCarley Trading, Gain
Favorite Futures: Options on Futures
 
Posts: 2,551 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 724 given, 4,384 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

I just talked to someone who is in the NG well business. He drills and owns wells.

He said he didn't have a clue why it was this high.

Reply With Quote
 
  #2522 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Los Angeles, CA USA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: N/A
Favorite Futures: Options
 
Posts: 9 since Nov 2013
Thanks: 14 given, 1 received

Wow... the NGH14 7.00 strike price going for a 0.07 premium.

Reply With Quote
 
  #2523 (permalink)
Elite Member
Brisbane/Australia
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Jtrader.
Favorite Futures: Futures
 
Posts: 22 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 6 given, 7 received


Ouch, just woke up here in Aus and checked my NG positions. Not a good start to the day. I ended up buying back half of my Feb 5.2s and then went on to sell some Mar 6.5s for 0.013.



This has been my first losing trade for the year. Bugger. This is purely from following the methodology that Ron uses, more or less.

A big difference i have noticed is my approach to the loss. Previously i would just dump and run and get out of the position. This time i am more looking to manage the loss and looking for opportunities that the rise in NG has given to try and recoup those losses.

I think i remember Ron posting a few weeks ago that he was selling NG Puts and i thought, why would he being doing that NG will probably go down. I should have taken notice of the master!

Bakes

Reply With Quote
 
  #2524 (permalink)
Elite Member
Brisbane/Australia
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Jtrader.
Favorite Futures: Futures
 
Posts: 22 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 6 given, 7 received

just sold some Mar 7.00 @ 0.008

thanks for the heads up

Reply With Quote
 
  #2525 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Cleveland, OH
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: QST
Broker/Data: QST, DeCarley Trading, Gain
Favorite Futures: Options on Futures
 
Posts: 2,551 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 724 given, 4,384 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


Bakes View Post
Ouch, just woke up here in Aus and checked my NG positions. Not a good start to the day. I ended up buying back half of my Feb 5.2s and then went on to sell some Mar 6.5s for 0.013.



This has been my first losing trade for the year. Bugger. This is purely from following the methodology that Ron uses, more or less.

A big difference i have noticed is my approach to the loss. Previously i would just dump and run and get out of the position. This time i am more looking to manage the loss and looking for opportunities that the rise in NG has given to try and recoup those losses.

I think i remember Ron posting a few weeks ago that he was selling NG Puts and i thought, why would he being doing that NG will probably go down. I should have taken notice of the master!

Bakes

I sold more calls than puts. I am feeling a lot of heat too.

Reply With Quote
 
  #2526 (permalink)
Elite Member
Prague, Czech Republic
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: AgenaTrader, Track'nTrade
Broker/Data: DeCarley/OEC, IBKR, IQFeed
Favorite Futures: futures, options
 
Posts: 180 since Sep 2010
Thanks: 66 given, 83 received


ron99 View Post
I just talked to someone who is in the NG well business. He drills and owns wells.

He said he didn't have a clue why it was this high.

Maybe be they are hedges because of the situation in Ukraine, at least here in Europe?

Reply With Quote
 
  #2527 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Cleveland, OH
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: QST
Broker/Data: QST, DeCarley Trading, Gain
Favorite Futures: Options on Futures
 
Posts: 2,551 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 724 given, 4,384 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


rani View Post
Maybe be they are hedges because of the situation in Ukraine, at least here in Europe?

There is almost no imports/exports of US NG. So world situations have no affect on US NG prices.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to ron99 for this post:
 
  #2528 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Houston TX
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: XTrader
Broker/Data: Advantage Futures
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
Posts: 1,862 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 1,585 given, 2,804 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


ron99 View Post
It sure looks to me like manipulation is going on in NG futures now like it did in April 2013.

Last April the price shot skyward. Far too high. And then it dropped 30 cents in one day.

This morning at 8:15am ET NG was down .060. Then it jumped up 15 cents from there. This pattern of down overnight then rising late in the morning has been happening several times lately. Strange.

The long range US weather forecasts have normal to above normal temps for the majority of the country 8-14 days out. US oil production hit a new 25 year high last week. So wells aren't being hampered much by the cold weather.

But as the saying goes, "the market can be wrong longer than you can hang in there" certainly applies here.

The new weather models come out mid-morning. This mornings model showed an 11-15 day colder than it did yesterday. Note that it's not necessarily important as to how cold that actually is, but that the forecast got colder day on day. I believe that was the catalyst for NG swinging from negative to positive this morning.

For what its worth...

In the EIA report released Thursday 14th November for week ending Friday 8th November we had 3,834 BCF of Natural Gas in working storage. This was 80 BCF lower than the same week last year and 58 BCF above the five year average.

Tomorrow we expect the EIA to announce stocks dropped 90 BCF in the last week to 3524 BCF which would be 282 BCF below last year and 145 BCF below the five year average.

Observation >> in the last 4 weeks we have depleted Natural Gas storage by about 200 BCF more than normal for this time of year.

Natural Gas Prices for physical Delivery TOMORROW
(These are real prices for physical gas that is going to flow down a pipeline, not some financial product)

Northeast
- New England $20.29 (Algonquin)
- New York City $17.10 (Transco Z6)
Gulf Coast
- Louisiana $4.23 (Henry)
- Houston $4.19 (HSC & Katy)
Mid-continent
- Chicago $4.58
West
- San Fran $4.71 (PG&E)
- Southern California $4.72 (Socal Border)

Observation >> All of these prices were set this morning before prices rallied. Futures prices are in line with Gulf Coast supply area spot physical gas prices. Spot physical prices at market areas are considerably higher than supply areas/futures prices.

I'm not saying that prices should go up, just saying that there is a strong argument that fundamentals support current Natural Gas Futures Prices.

Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to SMCJB for this post:
 
  #2529 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Houston TX
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: XTrader
Broker/Data: Advantage Futures
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
Posts: 1,862 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 1,585 given, 2,804 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Something else effecting the market is the huge selling in Cal 14 and Cal 15.
When Cal 14 rallied thru $4 last week it traded three times its normal trading volume on ICE.
I believe this is why we have seen the Jan14-Apr14 spread widen almost 15c in the last week.
If there wasn't the selling in the back I suspect the curve in general would be even higher, and probably the prompt as well

Reply With Quote
 
  #2530 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Cleveland, OH
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: QST
Broker/Data: QST, DeCarley Trading, Gain
Favorite Futures: Options on Futures
 
Posts: 2,551 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 724 given, 4,384 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary



SMCJB View Post
Natural Gas Prices for physical Delivery TOMORROW
(These are real prices for physical gas that is going to flow down a pipeline, not some financial product)

Gulf Coast
- Louisiana $4.23 (Henry)
- Houston $4.19 (HSC & Katy)

Observation >> All of these prices were set this morning before prices rallied. Futures prices are in line with Gulf Coast supply area spot physical gas prices.

Futures prices are 7 to 11 cents higher than GC prices.

Here is the NWS 8-14 day forecast from yesterday
Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



Here is today's 8-14 just released.
Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


I would call that a warmer forecast.


Last edited by ron99; December 11th, 2013 at 05:49 PM. Reason: Had wrong map
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to ron99 for this post:

Reply



futures io > > > > Selling Options on Futures?

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

FIO Journal Challenge featuring NinjaTrader ($2,000+ of prizes)

May
 

Prototyping Python Strategies (part 2: Backtesting) w/Ran Aroussi [special time: 1PM ET]

Elite only
 

Portfolio Diversification w/Brendon Delate @ Diversify Portfolio

Elite only

An Afternoon with FIO member Softsoap (being rescheduled)

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Crude Oil (CL) futures inverse pairing options Big Mike Commodities Futures Trading 8 December 12th, 2013 11:00 AM
Recommend futures, options Broker? sam1197 Brokers and Data Feeds 17 March 27th, 2013 12:42 AM
Trading Futures with options as protection Gooffy2010 Commodities Futures Trading 6 October 2nd, 2012 04:55 PM
Selling Njniatrader sam1197 NinjaTrader 22 June 28th, 2012 12:40 PM
Zen-Fire Futures options tici88 Brokers and Data Feeds 1 July 30th, 2011 09:16 AM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 09:45 AM.

Copyright © 2017 by futures io, s.a. Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2017-05-24 in 0.10 seconds with 19 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.196.68.10