Hard to give you an exact number. I use all data that I can get related to that futures contract. DCOT futures only data for Managed Money trends. OI direction. Seasonal trends. Past performance of the futures. General economy direction. New fundamental info (this is probably the most important). All of these plus probably some others I'm not thinking of right now go into the decision. Then that is what goes into my gut decision.
I do find that my gut decision is better over the years.
Today the grains crashed. Seasonal trend is downward into the end of Sep grain reports. Traders taking profit before the report.
Also this year the Managed Money (specs) are very heavy on the long side. 94% long positions in Corn. 97% long in S. So when the longs start bailing it will be a big drop.
I knew when the US drought became as strong as it was that the futures would be extremely volatile. I had sold July grain puts and then decided that things were too volatile to do any thing else in grains the rest of the summer. That's the experience talking.
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Enjoy the perfect trade. That doesn't happen too many times.
Normally grains are down into the end of Sep and then rebound in Oct. They might not rebound too much this Oct because US farmers will be selling grains right out of the field. But be aware of this seasonal trend.
I know I was extremely fortuitous in my timing on the beans. Had also received an email from Mr Cordier suggesting farmers were being forced to liquidate livestock early due to costs of feeding. His suggestion was selling the 2300 level but I went a bit closer.
Congratulations on the thread getting over 12000 views, someone must be watching us.
I am still getting his "email seminar" series where he talks about things in the book and sometimes gives some suggestions for possible trades and also recently received the Aug/Sept pdf newsletter for prospective clients which talked about grains and livestock and possible live cattle trade on further weakness.
Take a look at the chart attached which shows my recent CL Nov 80 Put, and some of my analysis and thoughts behind it.
I have a SIPP with Stadia as the trustees. They are the only one I could find that gave me good access to US markets through IB. So you get low SIPP costs about £250/yr i think, plus low cost access to US. The only downside is the 150% margins they impose on top of their full exchange requirements. You can trade freely with Futures and Options on Futures but not allowed to short stocks and it is a cash account so no stock marginning allowed either. Stock options ie covered call etc can be requested.
Last edited by britkid99; September 21st, 2012 at 10:21 AM.
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I am new to selling options ,particularly options on futures.Can we do credit spread with 1 or 2 month out and still be able to collect decent credit instead of selling naked options? Coz the idea of unlimited loss should the position goes again you is pretty scary to me.