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Selling Options on Futures?
Started:July 19th, 2011 (06:16 PM) by ron99 Views / Replies:568,200 / 5,727
Last Reply:December 2nd, 2016 (12:40 PM) Attachments:642

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Selling Options on Futures?

Old June 19th, 2013, 04:52 PM   #1721 (permalink)
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ron99 View Post
Anybody got an answer to this question?

Right now ESu3 is down 11.00. The Jul 1400 put settled at 1.05 yesterday.

So why is the ask only 0.95? It's the same for most of the options. The ask is less than yesterday's settlements when futures are way down.

Right about now - VIX is flat, you should see it reflected.

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Old June 19th, 2013, 07:52 PM   #1722 (permalink)
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ron99 View Post
Anybody got an answer to this question?

Right now ESu3 is down 11.00. The Jul 1400 put settled at 1.05 yesterday.

So why is the ask only 0.95? It's the same for most of the options. The ask is less than yesterday's settlements when futures are way down.


I saw a lot of things out of whack after the FOMC statement. Calls and puts were priced like you say...weird. I sold June call credit spreads about about 30 mins after the statement on the SPX at 1675/1680 that expire on Friday for .25 each, just under 5% return per. The SPX was at about 1645 when I entered.

Guess it was all about the VIX and overall volatility like UnZ said.



Currently flat futures options but looking at the crude calls now:

" Oil futures were also pressured by data from the Energy Information
Administration, which said crude oil inventories in the U.S. rose 300,000
barrels to 394.1 million barrels for the week ended Friday. Analysts had
estimated that crude-oil stocks would go in the other direction, falling
400,000 barrels."

That's an error in estimation of over 200%!!! How much do 'analysts' get paid?!?!?!?

Bottom in for wheat?.....watching.

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Old June 20th, 2013, 11:52 AM   #1723 (permalink)
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" Oil futures were also pressured by data from the Energy Information
Administration, which said crude oil inventories in the U.S. rose 300,000
barrels to 394.1 million barrels for the week ended Friday. Analysts had
estimated that crude-oil stocks would go in the other direction, falling
400,000 barrels."

That's an error in estimation of over 200%!!! How much do 'analysts' get paid?!?!?!?

I guess you can find an analyst to tell you pretty much anything you want. Over at FF Forex Calendar @ Forex Factory the forecast was +0.5M, which doesn't seem too far out.

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Old June 20th, 2013, 02:20 PM   #1724 (permalink)
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So is this crash a one day deal or a long term trend?

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Old June 20th, 2013, 02:58 PM   #1725 (permalink)
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ron99 View Post
So is this crash a one day deal or a long term trend?

It really depends where we close. From a technical perspective this is the 3rd attempt at a breach of the 1600 level which is the first key support. Below that is 1540 and then 1500. We have been in an uptrend long enough that should we crack 1600 and hold it overnight it is very likely we will visit the 1540 support level and modestly likely that we visit 1500. 1500 if visited is likely to provide substantial support in the short-term.

As stated previously the VIX has been rising (up 2 points today) and has been divergent against the uptrend for some time. This helps reinforce the technical picture described above.

For trading OTM options I am waiting for us to test 1540 and as the VIX spikes up I will be scaling in. Scale in fully should we visit 1500 (at that point likely going to have 1150 puts). This means I am protected as long as the market doesn't fall below 1420 and 1380 respectively. These are very safe spots for an intermediate (couple month) holding time and likely to have very nice premium and ROI.

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Old June 20th, 2013, 07:14 PM   #1726 (permalink)
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I guess you can find an analyst to tell you pretty much anything you want. Over at FF Forex Calendar @ Forex Factory the forecast was +0.5M, which doesn't seem too far out.


saw that too...thanks

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Old June 20th, 2013, 07:18 PM   #1727 (permalink)
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So is this crash a one day deal or a long term trend?

I was waiting for this week to 'happen'. By that I mean to make sure that I was flat everything until the news came out then let the market react before selling call spreads.

eud. has the support levels down for the 500

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Old June 21st, 2013, 10:30 AM   #1728 (permalink)
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After all of the volatility in the markets, KC is the only commodity that OX raised their excess margin multiplier. Up to 30% above SPAN from 10%.

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Old June 21st, 2013, 12:36 PM   #1729 (permalink)
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That is pretty funny that Coffee is the only one being bumped up.

What are your thoughts on Crude oil for the next few months now that the stock market isn't holding things up?

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Old June 21st, 2013, 05:51 PM   #1730 (permalink)
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I'm thinking that CL is more likely to move lower than up (barring extraordinary circumstances) because of plenty of supply and lower usage. But I don't think it crashes too low. I would doubt it goes below $75. So a 80-100 range is most likely.

See my chart showing low US oil usage.
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US imports
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US oil production
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