Also bearish divergence showing on cummulative delta volume (bottom pane). Currently about 100,000 contracts still holding short from the 1525 push down despite price rising 40 points.
Not saying it is imminent as these things take time to play out, the market may want to push those shorties out before rolling over. Could take till Sell in May, or geopolitical events may force it sooner. Either way I think we soon see 1480 again and then maybe 1380 and we wipe out all of this years gains.
James Cordier wrote in his latest article, talking about mistakes selling options close to the money: “Just select options that are at least 50% out of the money and preferably 75% to 100% out of the money. This means looking for markets with a little more volatility and being willing to write them further out in time. Remember that you can sell options four, five or even six months out and still take profits in 60-90 days.”
I could not find even one commodity where you could apply even the 50% out of the money, much less the 75-100%, to get at least a $200 premium going further out in time as much as you can. I would like to see just one example.
Here are all the trades I have taken this year (I started Feb 1). I didn't calculate the X% out of the money these options initially were (to be honest, I don't even know what this means - maybe someone could provide an example), but all these were around .02 delta.
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When you take all these together, from 2/1 to 5/16 the annualized rate of return is around 36.7%.
Of course, I have to start selling a bunch more soon to keep this rate of return up.
If you have any questions please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
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Remember, you are reading a trading method that someone else trades. Like Kevin posted, there are no rules that say you must trade Cordier's way. Looking at my trades so far, with all of the fees and commissions taken into consideration my average premium collected per option was about $30. I'm up a little over 17% on my account per the close of March. I read the book also and assumed it was THE way to do things but there are too many ways that you can sell options. It's a matter of what fits your trading style and how it adapts to you; not how you adapt to it.
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If anyone watched the video links that Ron posted, and if you have not already...just do so.
But, I am wondering how she determined 56 DTE, 100 points away, then 12% after that???
If she used some backtesting methods then that's fine with me. I'm just curious as to how she came up with these variables.
I've been looking at the ES options and even with these parameters there still looks to be decent premium with less than 56 DTE. That brings up the question of if the market goes against you within the first week or so and you want to sell the other side, would there be enough premium remaining to sell the other side given the shorter DTE if you were looking at options with 40 or 35 DTE? Did I say that correctly....uhhh...yes.
I'm guessing she is using 56 DTE (+/-) for the sole purpose that if the market does go the other way hard in the first 10 days or so there is still a good month left (decent premium) to sell the other side. However, it sounds like this is rarely done either way.
The trades I checked in the above list, 6 so far, are all below 33% OTM, and some below 20% (too close for me).
That is why I asked the above question: James Cordier Published in this link Options writing mistakes to avoid (I had not noticed the date, it was part of an email I received today, the premiums were very different then but still the main concept applies. For me, it is impossible to get some meaningful premium even 50% OTM at the moment).
I know, this is not an exact science, I am just trying to get some understanding of his words, I don’t want to start a confrontation…Thanks