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stupid probability questions

  #51 (permalink)
 
stephenszpak's Avatar
 stephenszpak 
Massachusetts (USA)
 
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Supposedly Ferengi Rule Of Acquisition #247

Never question luck

Apparently everything below is true. I think there are even more double winners
but this is enough for now. I don't believe in the existence of luck, though I will
sometimes use that word.
=============================================================

The odds of winning the lottery are about as likely as those for being struck by lightning.
So Ernest Pullen - who has won $3million in two lottery wins over three months - can justifiably call himself America's luckiest man.
Mr Pullen won $1million when he bought a scratch card from his local convenience store in June. Two weeks ago he won a further $2million on another scratch card - beating odds for more than one in 100 million.


Lightning strikes twice for Missouri man who wins lottery two times in three months | Mail Online


A Kansas man won a Super Kansas Cash jackpot worth $896,487 mere months after winning $75,000 on a scratch ticket, a Topeka newspaper says.

Kansas man wins big in lottery twice - UPI.com

James McAllister, 62, of Acworth was taking his wife to breakfast Feb. 14, when he bought a Millionaire Jumbo Bucks scratch-off ticket and won $5,000. A little later he went shopping for her Valentine's Day card and won $250,000 on the same game.

McAllister bought the $250,000 ticket at Kellogg Creek Market at 3569 Kellogg Creek Road in Acworth. McAllister's $5,000 ticket was purchased at the Racetrac gas station at 1135 Highway 92 in Acworth.

Cobb Man Wins Lottery Twice In One Day - News Story - WSB Atlanta

Paul Hayes bought a $20 scratch off lotto ticket called $2 Million Anniversary from a convenience store in Springfield recently and won a $2,500 prize. This lottery win meant that the winning scratch off ticket was automatically entered into a draw to win the $2 million top prize offered on this game from the Ohio Lottery. Paul Hayes suspected something was going on when he received a telephone call from the Ohio Lottery asking him to come to their Dayton Office but gave no reason for the request.
Once Hayes arrived at the lottery office it wasn’t long before he found out the reason for his visit. Allison Turner, Promotions Manager promptly presented Hayes with a check for winning the $2 million top prize on this scratch off game as the eyes of the media looked on.

Man wins on Ohio Lottery twice

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  #52 (permalink)
stopnlimits
Chicago, IL
 
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This thread brings me back to my high school trig class.

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  #53 (permalink)
futuresinvestor8
Los Angeles, CA
 
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stephenszpak View Post
A Kansas man won a Super Kansas Cash jackpot worth $896,487 mere months after winning $75,000 on a scratch ticket, a Topeka newspaper says.

Lucky, lucky man. However, I wouldn't rely on this to happen to me.

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  #54 (permalink)
relgot
Bielefeld Germany
 
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so what formula/program do you use for option pricing ?

There should be just one approximation function with several parameters
that may change over time and depend on the instrument.

And this function should be published somewhere ?!

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  #55 (permalink)
 traderwerks   is a Vendor
 
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relgot View Post
so what formula/program do you use for option pricing ?

There should be just one approximation function with several parameters
that may change over time and depend on the instrument.

And this function should be published somewhere ?!

There are a few ways to price options and a lot of ways to trade the Greeks.

You my want to start with this
Black?Scholes - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Math. A gateway drug to reality.
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  #56 (permalink)
relgot
Bielefeld Germany
 
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I remember implementing Black Schooles + McMillan decades ago on a C64.
Integrating the Gauss curve.
Only years later I found a neat approximation :
(no links allowed for me, google for 2.5066282746#)

And I though, that there should be such an approximation for the whole
option price directly. ?!?

And one that is more realistic than Black Schooles wrt. actual
market movements.
So the ~5 parameters in the formula should be adjusted -say-
monthly to the volatility and situation

I.e. puts out of the money are more expensive than calls out of the money
These models don't account for that

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  #57 (permalink)
 
stephenszpak's Avatar
 stephenszpak 
Massachusetts (USA)
 
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Have you checked out this software?

OptionVue: Option Software, Education and Analysis

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Last Updated on January 14, 2012


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