stupid probability questions - Off-Topic | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


stupid probability questions
Updated: Views / Replies:7,197 / 56
Created: by stephenszpak Attachments:12

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 90,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors Ė all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you donít need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Reply
 12  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

stupid probability questions

  #51 (permalink)
Elite Member
Massachusetts (USA)
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: YM
 
stephenszpak's Avatar
 
Posts: 778 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 144 given, 358 received

Supposedly Ferengi Rule Of Acquisition #247

Never question luck

Apparently everything below is true. I think there are even more double winners
but this is enough for now. I don't believe in the existence of luck, though I will
sometimes use that word.
=============================================================

The odds of winning the lottery are about as likely as those for being struck by lightning.
So Ernest Pullen - who has won $3million in two lottery wins over three months - can justifiably call himself America's luckiest man.
Mr Pullen won $1million when he bought a scratch card from his local convenience store in June. Two weeks ago he won a further $2million on another scratch card - beating odds for more than one in 100 million.


Lightning strikes twice for Missouri man who wins lottery two times in three months | Mail Online


A Kansas man won a Super Kansas Cash jackpot worth $896,487 mere months after winning $75,000 on a scratch ticket, a Topeka newspaper says.

Kansas man wins big in lottery twice - UPI.com

James McAllister, 62, of Acworth was taking his wife to breakfast Feb. 14, when he bought a Millionaire Jumbo Bucks scratch-off ticket and won $5,000. A little later he went shopping for her Valentine's Day card and won $250,000 on the same game.

McAllister bought the $250,000 ticket at Kellogg Creek Market at 3569 Kellogg Creek Road in Acworth. McAllister's $5,000 ticket was purchased at the Racetrac gas station at 1135 Highway 92 in Acworth.

Cobb Man Wins Lottery Twice In One Day - News Story - WSB Atlanta

Paul Hayes bought a $20 scratch off lotto ticket called $2 Million Anniversary from a convenience store in Springfield recently and won a $2,500 prize. This lottery win meant that the winning scratch off ticket was automatically entered into a draw to win the $2 million top prize offered on this game from the Ohio Lottery. Paul Hayes suspected something was going on when he received a telephone call from the Ohio Lottery asking him to come to their Dayton Office but gave no reason for the request.
Once Hayes arrived at the lottery office it wasnít long before he found out the reason for his visit. Allison Turner, Promotions Manager promptly presented Hayes with a check for winning the $2 million top prize on this scratch off game as the eyes of the media looked on.

Man wins on Ohio Lottery twice

Reply With Quote
 
  #52 (permalink)
Just starting out...
Chicago, IL
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TransactAT, NinjaTrader, E-Futures International
Favorite Futures: Softs, Mini - S&P, Dow, Nasdaq
 
Posts: 13 since Mar 2011
Thanks: 2 given, 1 received

This thread brings me back to my high school trig class.

Reply With Quote
 
  #53 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Los Angeles, CA
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: TradeStation
Favorite Futures: Futures
 
Posts: 18 since Mar 2011
Thanks: 3 given, 6 received



stephenszpak View Post
A Kansas man won a Super Kansas Cash jackpot worth $896,487 mere months after winning $75,000 on a scratch ticket, a Topeka newspaper says.

Lucky, lucky man. However, I wouldn't rely on this to happen to me.

Reply With Quote
 
  #54 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Bielefeld Germany
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: MT4
Favorite Futures: oil,gold,euro,dow
 
Posts: 12 since Jan 2012
Thanks: 1 given, 1 received

so what formula/program do you use for option pricing ?

There should be just one approximation function with several parameters
that may change over time and depend on the instrument.

And this function should be published somewhere ?!

Reply With Quote
 
  #55 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.traderwerks.com 
Taipei Taiwan
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: Optimus
Favorite Futures: TW
 
Posts: 693 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 440 given, 440 received


relgot View Post
so what formula/program do you use for option pricing ?

There should be just one approximation function with several parameters
that may change over time and depend on the instrument.

And this function should be published somewhere ?!

There are a few ways to price options and a lot of ways to trade the Greeks.

You my want to start with this
Black?Scholes - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Math. A gateway drug to reality.
Reply With Quote
 
  #56 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Bielefeld Germany
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: MT4
Favorite Futures: oil,gold,euro,dow
 
Posts: 12 since Jan 2012
Thanks: 1 given, 1 received

I remember implementing Black Schooles + McMillan decades ago on a C64.
Integrating the Gauss curve.
Only years later I found a neat approximation :
(no links allowed for me, google for 2.5066282746#)

And I though, that there should be such an approximation for the whole
option price directly. ?!?

And one that is more realistic than Black Schooles wrt. actual
market movements.
So the ~5 parameters in the formula should be adjusted -say-
monthly to the volatility and situation

I.e. puts out of the money are more expensive than calls out of the money
These models don't account for that

Reply With Quote
 
  #57 (permalink)
Elite Member
Massachusetts (USA)
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: YM
 
stephenszpak's Avatar
 
Posts: 778 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 144 given, 358 received

Have you checked out this software?

OptionVue: Option Software, Education and Analysis

Reply With Quote

Reply



futures io > > > stupid probability questions

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

Jigsaw Trading: TBA

Elite only

FuturesTrader71: TBA

Elite only

NinjaTrader: TBA

Jan 18

RandBots: TBA

Jan 23

GFF Brokers & CME Group: Futures & Bitcoin

Elite only

Adam Grimes: TBA

Elite only

Ran Aroussi: TBA

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
High Probability Trades-My Journal Ronin Trading Journals 19 March 26th, 2011 02:50 PM
newbie stupid question!!!! bugsbunny NinjaTrader Programming 29 February 10th, 2011 10:19 AM
"It's a high probability trade" shodson Traders Hideout 6 September 4th, 2010 09:12 PM
Expectancy/Probability for zwentz steve2222 Psychology and Money Management 0 November 8th, 2009 01:59 AM
I feel so stupid :( Xzap Traders Hideout 3 July 21st, 2009 10:03 AM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:05 AM.

Copyright © 2017 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2017-12-18 in 0.11 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.163.209.109