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Migrant crisis
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Migrant crisis

  #1 (permalink)
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Migrant crisis

For a long time I've been thinking about the migrant crisis taking place in Europe. Now, it seems, there's a parallel crisis going on in the US (although that may stem from a different root cause).

What do people feel about this?


@Big Mike I appreciate this may be a sensitive topic - if you think it's best left off FIO just close the thread.

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Interesting Topic...

Unlike other platforms, I imagine that the community here can have a friendly and intellectual discussion on this topic.

For the US anyway......I think there are fairly easy to implement solutions that could be done all via business regulation concerning immigrant workers. We have a fairly broken system when it comes to businesses vetting people.

I'll start with the premise that while immigrant workers can be good for some work sectors, no country can afford to annex the working poor from neighboring countries only to displace it's own working poor. I am not saying that what is occurring today by any means. That would be gross overstatement and oversimplification, but the goal of any countries immigration policy should be to avoid this nightmare scenario at all cost. Countries like businesses should use economic immigration strategically as part of a goal to fill jobs that are in supply with lacking demand.

If you forget about the current state of our existing immigrant population for a minute, and look at only policies that are in place currently, you may very well have an unsustainable influx of economic immigrants in 10,20 50 years from now. So I will start by talking through, how we could avoid this through a solution that would be as humane and effective as possible. (At least as far as I can see it.)

Anecdotally I used to work in the restaurant business back in college and made friends with around 10 or so undocumented economic immigrants mostly from mexico over a 10 year period. I probably worked with over 200 at 5 different restaurants but I was close friends with 10 or so, and still keep in touch with most of them today. None of them had completed the full immigration process. I would say that only a handful had even applied for green-cards. None of them cared, because they didn't have to. They were able to get fake papers somehow, and none of the employers found anything out of line. These were top tier chain restaurants, not just mom and pops so vetting with e-verify, running ssn checks etc, was done.



So with all this said as a backdrop I think the policy fix could be be something like this:

1. Decide which sectors you want to allow immigrants to work in. I think there are differing opinions on which sectors have immigrant workers cannibalizing local jobs. So this would be the most contentious point to get alignment on. Some job classes might require full H2B visas with quotas like the tech sector has, for other industries green cards might be required, migrant workers might follow a different path, etc. So you would first need to bifurcate the job classes and the credentials required to participate in the different job classes. Some of this is in place, but most of this is not.

2. Once you decide what sectors economic immigrants should be able to work in, you implement a more robust employer background check system to build a barrier to entry for sectors determined to be out of bounds. And or quota systems for the ones they are allowed to participate in. This is the part that is lacking currently. Economic immigrants are working in a wide variety of industries outside of what people might assume. Is this good or bad for our economy? Who is to say... but there is no structure in place to prevent them from participating just about anywhere at the moment. As I mentioned from my anecdotal experience, there were no controls in place at some of the largest chain restaurants I used to work. I imagine this is a point of parity in just about any industry.

3. There will be a supply and demand equilibrium that eventually evens out between available jobs and job seekers in the sectors that economic immigrants are allowed to participate in. Over time the net effect of business regulation will be a down tick in economic immigration. If there are less jobs available by businesses being forced to tighten up on the class of workers they can hire, the immigration trends will start to stabilize. Instead of trying to criminalize the worker, we should be fining the businesses. There are no real penalties for knowingly hiring someone with fake papers, or hiring undocumented workers outright. The bottom line is, if it's not a crime for employers it shouldn't be a crime for the worker. We don't have a robust enough infrastructure or the resources to criminalize and deport 10 to 20 million people but we could easily regulate a few hundred business sectors and then let attrition play out naturally.

Right now US immigration is wide open because there are no business rules in place preventing immigrants from getting work. Or put another way, if there are background checks in place, these are very easy to fake and get around.

I think doing a business regulation overhaul would be the most ethical solution. Instead of tying up resources trying to monitor boarder crossing, track the legal status of immigrants, etc, we could have the problem solve itself by deciding how economic immigrants should be able to participate in our workforce. Once we settle on this, the rest might solve it'self as a function of supply and demand.

I don't have enough of an opinion on where the lines in the sand should be regarding which sectors should be fair game or off limits, but I at least have a line of sight on a structure that might work to solve it...

Maybe I'm thinking about this to simplistically but I think this would be the most ethical approach.

Just punting this out there. I Hope I didn't say anything off color or out of line accidentally, as I know this is a sensitive topic.

Ian

In the analytical world there is no such thing as art, there is only the science you know and the science you don't know. Characterizing the science you don't know as "art" is a fools game.

Last edited by iantg; June 23rd, 2018 at 10:57 PM.
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Jobs and the economy is a red herring.

This is about demographics and political power.

Bread and circuses.


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Crops Rotting in the fields

A picture it worth a thousand words. Tried this before and it failed and it's going to bite us in the ass again!

After all, it's what you learn AFTER you know it all, that counts!
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Border Laws/cutting in line

My feeling is the teenagers in the US need to be working these jobs, it builds character.. When I was 16 years old I worked all summer picking weeds for 12 hours a day in 100 degree heat in onion fields. I passed out my first day of work but I kept coming back. My son who is now 20 was part of a large church youth group of about 60 teenagers, out that whole group not one of them had a summer job except my son. When I was 16 I didn't know anyone my age that didn't work in the summer recess. All parents when I was growing up knew it was good for their kids to be working the summers,somehow that common sense is long gone....
Unfortunate this has created a need for illegals to pick the fields now. In my opinion with as fast as technology is rising , common sense is falling globally. There is sort of a mushy brain Zombie apocalypse happening in the US except the mushy brains don't eat brains like regular zombies do.. they feed on 6-15 hours a day of cellphone entertainment.

Quantismo ... Lets make common sense great again !!!

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Yes, I did haying for $20 a day. 100# bales.

I still remember the day I got $25 instead of $20.


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Immigration and World Poverty Explained with GUMBALLS

https://youtu.be/l6tSqGCfoCI

Immigration and World Poverty Explained with GUMBALLS

....worth a look....not too long....6 minutes


Last edited by marin; June 24th, 2018 at 10:10 PM. Reason: added note
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sixtyseven View Post
My understanding is the thrust of the vote was to gain control over immigration policies. My first experience of England was a tube ride from Heathrow to Warren Street in 1999, where I was struck by how few 'native' english people there were. I left in 2008. There are benefits from integrating different cultures, but the benefits are offset by diluting the original culture. Other issues arise where there is a lack of willingness to integrate, or barriers to allow integration. I think the 'old' voted in an attempt to re-claim their heritage, or stem the rate it is being lost.

If correct, then I think it was with a long term in mind. Another 50-100 years of free movement of people and it would be difficult to determine which european city you are in, if not for the historical buildings. I think each country should hold on tightly to it's heritage and it's individual way of life, rather than mix the world all up, so it's the same where ever you go.

Interested in your views about immigration. I copied the post here so as to maintain an economic focus about the Brexit thread.

By what you write, it sounds like in the UK the voters would have chosen to leave the EU because of an identity crisis.

It's worth pointing out, though, that
  • All the people who voted to leave the EU and that were interviewed (just a sample of course) seemed to state that they had a problem with non-EU immigration
  • By leaving the EU in a certain way, the UK would have a say on restricting the so-called 'free-movement', but this would apply only to new EU citizens wishing to relocate to the UK
  • I don't believe the above would apply to non-EU immigration for which, I think, the UK has already decisional autonomy

Also, about identity crisis: how is Britain's (or EU's) identity crisis different from indigenous identity crises in North America, or in Oceania?

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People just project their own dissatisfaction with life onto these topics.

There is no crisis in the US at least. Trump is just a master negotiator. Like you really believe a wall was ever getting built? Lol.

It is just a negotiation tactic so he can give concessions on something that was never going to happen in the first place.

If you are unemployed right now it is because of technological displacement and has nothing to do with poor people from Mexico.

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centaurer View Post
People just project their own dissatisfaction with life onto these topics.

There is no crisis in the US at least. Trump is just a master negotiator. Like you really believe a wall was ever getting built? Lol.

It is just a negotiation tactic so he can give concessions on something that was never going to happen in the first place.

If you are unemployed right now it is because of technological displacement and has nothing to do with poor people from Mexico.

This is an excellent point, and one I happen to subscribe to as well. Our human nature, for some reason, leads us to blame the external environment when, in most of the cases, the answer lies within ourselves. This is true in trading as well as in many other human conditions.

Having said that, there is an undisputable ongoing situation, where a considerable influx of people mostly from Africa and the East Asia are seeking access into Europe. I see the root cause as partly humanitarian/partly economic based.

I also think the situation in some Latin American countries (e.g. Venezuela) is causing some people displacement, and to those people the natural candidate for a better life is the North American region.


But, bottom line, your point of view is interesting. I have heard other US-based people who have a different set of beliefs who tend to think immigration is getting out of control.

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