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Migrant crisis


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Migrant crisis

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 xplorer 
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For a long time I've been thinking about the migrant crisis taking place in Europe. Now, it seems, there's a parallel crisis going on in the US (although that may stem from a different root cause).

What do people feel about this?


@Big Mike I appreciate this may be a sensitive topic - if you think it's best left off FIO just close the thread.

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 iantg 
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Unlike other platforms, I imagine that the community here can have a friendly and intellectual discussion on this topic.

For the US anyway......I think there are fairly easy to implement solutions that could be done all via business regulation concerning immigrant workers. We have a fairly broken system when it comes to businesses vetting people.

I'll start with the premise that while immigrant workers can be good for some work sectors, no country can afford to annex the working poor from neighboring countries only to displace it's own working poor. I am not saying that what is occurring today by any means. That would be gross overstatement and oversimplification, but the goal of any countries immigration policy should be to avoid this nightmare scenario at all cost. Countries like businesses should use economic immigration strategically as part of a goal to fill jobs that are in supply with lacking demand.

If you forget about the current state of our existing immigrant population for a minute, and look at only policies that are in place currently, you may very well have an unsustainable influx of economic immigrants in 10,20 50 years from now. So I will start by talking through, how we could avoid this through a solution that would be as humane and effective as possible. (At least as far as I can see it.)

Anecdotally I used to work in the restaurant business back in college and made friends with around 10 or so undocumented economic immigrants mostly from mexico over a 10 year period. I probably worked with over 200 at 5 different restaurants but I was close friends with 10 or so, and still keep in touch with most of them today. None of them had completed the full immigration process. I would say that only a handful had even applied for green-cards. None of them cared, because they didn't have to. They were able to get fake papers somehow, and none of the employers found anything out of line. These were top tier chain restaurants, not just mom and pops so vetting with e-verify, running ssn checks etc, was done.



So with all this said as a backdrop I think the policy fix could be be something like this:

1. Decide which sectors you want to allow immigrants to work in. I think there are differing opinions on which sectors have immigrant workers cannibalizing local jobs. So this would be the most contentious point to get alignment on. Some job classes might require full H2B visas with quotas like the tech sector has, for other industries green cards might be required, migrant workers might follow a different path, etc. So you would first need to bifurcate the job classes and the credentials required to participate in the different job classes. Some of this is in place, but most of this is not.

2. Once you decide what sectors economic immigrants should be able to work in, you implement a more robust employer background check system to build a barrier to entry for sectors determined to be out of bounds. And or quota systems for the ones they are allowed to participate in. This is the part that is lacking currently. Economic immigrants are working in a wide variety of industries outside of what people might assume. Is this good or bad for our economy? Who is to say... but there is no structure in place to prevent them from participating just about anywhere at the moment. As I mentioned from my anecdotal experience, there were no controls in place at some of the largest chain restaurants I used to work. I imagine this is a point of parity in just about any industry.

3. There will be a supply and demand equilibrium that eventually evens out between available jobs and job seekers in the sectors that economic immigrants are allowed to participate in. Over time the net effect of business regulation will be a down tick in economic immigration. If there are less jobs available by businesses being forced to tighten up on the class of workers they can hire, the immigration trends will start to stabilize. Instead of trying to criminalize the worker, we should be fining the businesses. There are no real penalties for knowingly hiring someone with fake papers, or hiring undocumented workers outright. The bottom line is, if it's not a crime for employers it shouldn't be a crime for the worker. We don't have a robust enough infrastructure or the resources to criminalize and deport 10 to 20 million people but we could easily regulate a few hundred business sectors and then let attrition play out naturally.

Right now US immigration is wide open because there are no business rules in place preventing immigrants from getting work. Or put another way, if there are background checks in place, these are very easy to fake and get around.

I think doing a business regulation overhaul would be the most ethical solution. Instead of tying up resources trying to monitor boarder crossing, track the legal status of immigrants, etc, we could have the problem solve itself by deciding how economic immigrants should be able to participate in our workforce. Once we settle on this, the rest might solve it'self as a function of supply and demand.

I don't have enough of an opinion on where the lines in the sand should be regarding which sectors should be fair game or off limits, but I at least have a line of sight on a structure that might work to solve it...

Maybe I'm thinking about this to simplistically but I think this would be the most ethical approach.

Just punting this out there. I Hope I didn't say anything off color or out of line accidentally, as I know this is a sensitive topic.

Ian

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 suko 
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Jobs and the economy is a red herring.

This is about demographics and political power.

Bread and circuses.


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A picture it worth a thousand words. Tried this before and it failed and it's going to bite us in the ass again!

After all, it's what you learn AFTER you know it all, that counts!
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 quantismo 
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My feeling is the teenagers in the US need to be working these jobs, it builds character.. When I was 16 years old I worked all summer picking weeds for 12 hours a day in 100 degree heat in onion fields. I passed out my first day of work but I kept coming back. My son who is now 20 was part of a large church youth group of about 60 teenagers, out that whole group not one of them had a summer job except my son. When I was 16 I didn't know anyone my age that didn't work in the summer recess. All parents when I was growing up knew it was good for their kids to be working the summers,somehow that common sense is long gone....
Unfortunate this has created a need for illegals to pick the fields now. In my opinion with as fast as technology is rising , common sense is falling globally. There is sort of a mushy brain Zombie apocalypse happening in the US except the mushy brains don't eat brains like regular zombies do.. they feed on 6-15 hours a day of cellphone entertainment.

Quantismo ... Lets make common sense great again !!!

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 suko 
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Yes, I did haying for $20 a day. 100# bales.

I still remember the day I got $25 instead of $20.


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 marin 
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Immigration and World Poverty Explained with GUMBALLS

....worth a look....not too long....6 minutes

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 xplorer 
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sixtyseven View Post
My understanding is the thrust of the vote was to gain control over immigration policies. My first experience of England was a tube ride from Heathrow to Warren Street in 1999, where I was struck by how few 'native' english people there were. I left in 2008. There are benefits from integrating different cultures, but the benefits are offset by diluting the original culture. Other issues arise where there is a lack of willingness to integrate, or barriers to allow integration. I think the 'old' voted in an attempt to re-claim their heritage, or stem the rate it is being lost.

If correct, then I think it was with a long term in mind. Another 50-100 years of free movement of people and it would be difficult to determine which european city you are in, if not for the historical buildings. I think each country should hold on tightly to it's heritage and it's individual way of life, rather than mix the world all up, so it's the same where ever you go.

Interested in your views about immigration. I copied the post here so as to maintain an economic focus about the Brexit thread.

By what you write, it sounds like in the UK the voters would have chosen to leave the EU because of an identity crisis.

It's worth pointing out, though, that
  • All the people who voted to leave the EU and that were interviewed (just a sample of course) seemed to state that they had a problem with non-EU immigration
  • By leaving the EU in a certain way, the UK would have a say on restricting the so-called 'free-movement', but this would apply only to new EU citizens wishing to relocate to the UK
  • I don't believe the above would apply to non-EU immigration for which, I think, the UK has already decisional autonomy

Also, about identity crisis: how is Britain's (or EU's) identity crisis different from indigenous identity crises in North America, or in Oceania?

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 centaurer 
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People just project their own dissatisfaction with life onto these topics.

There is no crisis in the US at least. Trump is just a master negotiator. Like you really believe a wall was ever getting built? Lol.

It is just a negotiation tactic so he can give concessions on something that was never going to happen in the first place.

If you are unemployed right now it is because of technological displacement and has nothing to do with poor people from Mexico.

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 xplorer 
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centaurer View Post
People just project their own dissatisfaction with life onto these topics.

There is no crisis in the US at least. Trump is just a master negotiator. Like you really believe a wall was ever getting built? Lol.

It is just a negotiation tactic so he can give concessions on something that was never going to happen in the first place.

If you are unemployed right now it is because of technological displacement and has nothing to do with poor people from Mexico.

This is an excellent point, and one I happen to subscribe to as well. Our human nature, for some reason, leads us to blame the external environment when, in most of the cases, the answer lies within ourselves. This is true in trading as well as in many other human conditions.

Having said that, there is an undisputable ongoing situation, where a considerable influx of people mostly from Africa and the East Asia are seeking access into Europe. I see the root cause as partly humanitarian/partly economic based.

I also think the situation in some Latin American countries (e.g. Venezuela) is causing some people displacement, and to those people the natural candidate for a better life is the North American region.


But, bottom line, your point of view is interesting. I have heard other US-based people who have a different set of beliefs who tend to think immigration is getting out of control.

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 MiniP 
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I think this is a very interesting topic. One I personally think a wall is a good thing and honestly don't understand the push back? Why because it is a couple billion dollars to put it in simple terms if you had 100 dollars wouldn't you spend 3-5% of it to make things a little safer? Will the wall be the end all be all to illegal immigration no way. When people want something bad enough they always find a way but it will hopefully make things a little harder and it serves as a large defensive barrier if we were ever to be attacked from the south.

Two I think immigration at a whole needs to be revamped we have people waiting 10 years to get in and that is defiantly one of the problems, it shouldn't take that long. This is a country of immigrants and we need to keep it that way BUT we also needs a proper vetting process. I would gladly pay more in taxes if we could make a better system.

Three, i agree with the rest of you that teens should be doing a lot of this work. The day i turned 16 I had a job cleaning dishes( FYI never eat at a buffet ) because i was told if i ever wanted to buy anything i better get my ass in gear. But on the other hand teens now have opportunities to do other type of work and get paid well. Youtube,streaming,trading ( parental account) the list goes on and on so you can't blame them if they want to make youtube videos and not sweat there ass off . I'd do the same thing and you could make a hell of a lot more money off of youtube adds then you would be picking weeds or washing dishes. Eventually all those tasks will become automated and the people who depend on those jobs will either have to adapt or move on to the next market that hasn't been automated.

The company i used to work for sold robotic welding equipment we were a signal source supplier. We had a large trailer company in California who one day ICE made a visit to and arrested over 100 illegal immigrants the next day they automated over 60% of there production. These jobs are going to disappear soon, there will always be some but not to the extent they use to be and we should be proud of that, it means we are evolving.

If we were to have a better immigration program we could vet people and try and place them in a growing market such as robotics/programming/ whatever it may be but it would end up helping us in the long run we would be much more dominate in the world market.

Comes down to the USA needs to get over its mid 1900's philosophy of how we do things.


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 sixtyseven 
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xplorer View Post
Having said that, there is an undisputable ongoing situation, where a considerable influx of people mostly from Africa and the East Asia are seeking access into Europe. I see the root cause as partly humanitarian/partly economic based.

How do you feel about the above situation?

NZ had a fair few western and eastern European and Chinese immigrants among others back when it started up. Due to the lack of easy travel and communication it seems they easily enough integrated.

But there gets a point where the speed of new arrivals is too fast for full integration, which results in pockets of nationalities residing side by side in the same country. NZ currently has net migration at a rate of 13 per 1,000 population (vs 3.4 for UK and US). Being a small country that rate ebbs and flows, being negative some years, but generally runs higher overall than the US and the UK. We have control over the rate of immigrants, and supposedly have 'high' standards for new arrivals, but we don't have control over the quality of the people leaving. So overall probably not a lot in the intellectual stakes changes.

I certainly have a fear (possibly irrational) that due to the population growth in the African and Asian countries that over time they will have a heavier presence in NZ, and due to the ease which immigrants can live, without being integrated, will result in a fractured country. Essentially a mini-world. I think it is good to bring new idea's from other cultures, however, those that move to a new country should generally adopt their new homes way of living, rather than trying to bring their entire way of life with them. It does get messy, as I also believe you should be thank-ful for your own heritage, and keep hold of that. Essentially, bring good idea's, but don't try and change things! A poor example, NZ generally is not religious, and I'm certainly not, so as bad as it was for a nutcase to go into a mosque I don't think there should have been any mosques in the first place.

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 xplorer 
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sixtyseven View Post
How do you feel about the above situation?

About the humanitarian part I am of the view that
  • Some of the displacement was caused by the West meddling too much with Middle East geopolitics
  • I think we as EU have not anticipated that any political or humanitarian crisis in, say, Africa, would have a knock on effect on the EU. We should have foreseen it, and acted accordingly by working with the countries affected.
  • Either way, any proper refugee has a right to ask for and obtain asylum and I think this should naturally be how any civilisation responds to global crises

About economic migrants, i.e. those that move to another country in search of a better job/career/life etc., it's difficult for me to express an opinion.

I believe in the EU free-movement within EU member states, I think it has provided enormous benefits to all who have migrated to another EU state.

But should all people, including the ones coming from outside the EU, be allowed to enter? We certainly can't let everyone in. There has to be some immigration policy, either at EU level or at individual member state, that regulates such influx.

Having said that, one country where in recent years news about migrants was hitting the press every single day was Italy. People kept going in, on average 500 a day, every day.
One recent issue with Italy is low natality rate, and the president of the Italian equivalent of the Inland Revenue agency said himself that net contribution to government coffers was positive in the billions thanks to these migrants. This suggests that specific countries may benefit more than others. Again, Italy lamented however a lack of cohesive policy in the EU. Probably also for that reason people voted last year for a right-wing government with an anti-immigration stance, and not an isolated case in the EU.

I don't subscribe to the fears you mentioned about Western countries becoming ghettos to pockets of migrants. I have always believed that, looking over the very long term (and looking back, not to our immediate past, but going thousands of years ago) that migration has been a constant phenomenon worldwide, from the early people going from Africa to the North (or from South to North America), to the various empires extensions across the centuries.

In other words, it's always been there and probably always will be.





This may be an individual preference but I don't feel threatened in terms of heritage or identity either. I never worry about what skin colour or religious belief would be predominant in 50-100-1000 years from now. Maybe it's a personal thing but I do worry more about whether the world as a whole will be better or worse, rather than who my next door neighbour is (just talking in general here, not suggesting I do and you don't).

More in general I would say that, as long as people treat each other the way they themselves would like to be treated, everybody should be entitled to freedom of expression, belief, etc., as long as they don't try to force their own views on on others.
This, for me, should always be the basis for any civilisation to thrive, whatever their roots.

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 MiniP 
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sixtyseven View Post
How do you feel about the above situation?

NZ had a fair few western and eastern European and Chinese immigrants among others back when it started up. Due to the lack of easy travel and communication it seems they easily enough integrated.

But there gets a point where the speed of new arrivals is too fast for full integration, which results in pockets of nationalities residing side by side in the same country. NZ currently has net migration at a rate of 13 per 1,000 population (vs 3.4 for UK and US). Being a small country that rate ebbs and flows, being negative some years, but generally runs higher overall than the US and the UK. We have control over the rate of immigrants, and supposedly have 'high' standards for new arrivals, but we don't have control over the quality of the people leaving. So overall probably not a lot in the intellectual stakes changes.

I certainly have a fear (possibly irrational) that due to the population growth in the African and Asian countries that over time they will have a heavier presence in NZ, and due to the ease which immigrants can live, without being integrated, will result in a fractured country. Essentially a mini-world. I think it is good to bring new idea's from other cultures, however, those that move to a new country should generally adopt their new homes way of living, rather than trying to bring their entire way of life with them. It does get messy, as I also believe you should be thank-ful for your own heritage, and keep hold of that. Essentially, bring good idea's, but don't try and change things! A poor example, NZ generally is not religious, and I'm certainly not, so as bad as it was for a nutcase to go into a mosque I don't think there should have been any mosques in the first place.

I would say a little bit of me feels similar to you, we need to some how work with these other countries to encourage growth in these countries so these people have opportunities to become a NZ/USA etc etc. it seems like immigration is a double edged sword one side is great we get growth and people working to build a better country but on the other side there a groups that want to make the country they currently immigrated to into the country they just left either for political or religious reasons and to me thats not okay. You left your country to come to mine don't try and turn this country into the old because "most likely" ( big air quotes) you left your country for some negative reason and we don't want to bring that to where you migrate to.

There are parts of the USA that have a very heavy presence of sharia laws, that's not right. You can practice what ever religion you want or lack there of but it needs to be within the confines of OUR law not what you use to do.

and this to me i think will end up being a larger issue then it is now in maybe 20-50 years when there are more immigrants in this country.

-P

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 LastDino 
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This is one of those topics where an old saying applies in popular thinking, "one with the stick owns the buffalo"

Didn't make any sense?

Oh well, let me try to explain it from a 3rd party point of view. There are more than 7 Billion people in this world, this world can only support decent life of around 4 billion or less. Right now majority of resources are manipulated by less than 1 billion and rest live in down right inhuman conditions. Now people from that 1 billion will give excuses that this is "our country" or "we have earned it" or "we are rightfully earning it due to our skills being better than rest 6 Billions".

In reality none of the above 3 arguments are true. Take for example; in my country, an Engineer has to earn less than MacD store worker in US. Sounds absurd? Well that's just beginning, one can have double masters, one can know half a dozen languages and still earn less than that of Shift Manager in same MacD store in US.

Migrant crises? What migrant crises? There are more people crossing borders from Bangladesh to India than everywhere else to US, in various ME adventures of US, in one such an example there were more people crossing border from Afghanistan to Pakistan per year than entire decade of Mexicans crossing into US.

Migration is multi layer problem, its not just about "if you get here I lose my job", because that will only last till you have the bigger stick. And history of man kind tells us that no one always manages to have the bigger stick. Then there is also problem of allocation of % to legal migration, I mean common, 7% of total per country? Are you trying to tell me that country with population of 1 Bn+ has same allowed number of legal migrants to US as the country with population of Less than 100k? That's just

I can go in a very minute details of this and make it very very long, but it will be too much for this forum setup.

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Bottom line if you're happy to earn money from customers abroad get used to migration of labour. You can't logically expect if money can flow in one direction to the richest countries that labour (skilled or not) won't or can't also flow there too. Often opposition is based on either an emotional response to the fear of change or fear around limited resources for locals. Yes, there are infrastructure issues as services grow, but every stat out there shows immigrants are a new benefit rather than the perception of them being a cost. Additionally, there is often contrarily a surplus of resources in many (if certainly not all). I just don't buy into fear mongering I have seen and am impressed upon by the facts I've encountered. I have employed a lot of people of all backgrounds in various skill levels and have seen the evidence on the ground as well. And just don't see as credible the idea that "there's not enough", or "they're bad people", or "my life is going to be affected". Economically I've seen competition, wages and productive quality increase due to liquidity of labour participation. Over the last few years it's inexorably harder to migrate despite the political propagandism around immigration fear mongering. If you want to make money the easiest way is taking advantage of economic comparative advantage with free trade and free movement of labour. If right now you're thinking "what about cheap labour and wages", I'll say this, if as now most firms are buying from India and China anyway it's a moot point comparative to the revenues migrated already taking advantage of offshoring of facilities. In our western economies trying to limit migration for wage control is moot, economically we should be focusing instead WHOLESALE on creating high skilled jobs, businesses, and workforce, and NOT fighting a logically moot battle over relatively low skilled jobs that moving/being filled. Comparative advantage and skills.... unless we're going back in time to post war trade walls and isolationism, all sounds great until we realise how crap it is in reality (I.e., akin to practical communism at its worst imo). In that you can only really buy nationally produced goods in most cases. Economic isolationism as a touted credible alternative is just wrong, and we should be moving forward to open up trade across the board not close off, and that migration is natural consequence. Can't have our cake and eat it.


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Last Updated on September 27, 2019


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