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Sports Betting


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Sports Betting

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charlotte nc
 
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I just wanted to throw it out there because I think this is an interesting topic and I can see both sides of this from lenses of a future trader. When attempting to predict an outcome of a sporting event there are numerous ways to do it, but I see several of these that are very parallel to trading. For example:

1. Trend Style thinking: The team is doing well, they are on a hot streak, so they will continue to win. Put money on the proven commodity when two teams line up to play.

2. Contrarian Style thinking: This team is above 50% on the on the year, and they just lost a few games in a row, so the law of averages should kick in and they will break the losing streak.


Now let me throw a real scenario into the mix by bringing in one of tomorrows key match-ups in the NFL. Being from Charlotte, I am interested in seeing how the Carolina Panthers hold up against the New Orleans Saints tomorrow, because this is perfect test case to see which of the two most prevailing schools of thought holds true. (not exactly a perfect parallel but pretty close).

On the one hand you have the Trend style perspective that New Orleans beat Carolina twice this year already, and they are playing a team that has under performed over the last 2 games. The smart money would be to go with the Trend and put money on New Orleans.

But on the other hand the contrarian view has this going for it... Carolina has a very strong record at 11 and 4. Now they lost to New Orleans twice, and they completely sucked in their last two games offensively, and even lost their last game. Mean Reversal / Law of averages dictate that we just had 90 flips of tails in a row, and it's time for some heads baby!

I am sure that NFL statisticians / sports betting professionals that study player stat numbers as much as I study market micro structures can likely predict the exact score within a + or - range of a few points. I find it fascinating how there is a whole science to that world and how it is in many ways very similar to futures trading.

I don't know where I am going with this... But let's see which side is right tomorrow. Go Panthers!


Ian

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