(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)
futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 90,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.
At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors – all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.
With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you don’t need to worry about fake reviews.
We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free and simple.
-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
View Poll Results: Does a series of "black" spins increase the chance the next spin will be "red"?
When watching a roulette wheel in vegas, does a series of consecutive spins that land on "black" increase the chance the next spin will land on "red" ?
Mike
Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.
Need help? 1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first. 2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses. 3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make. 4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance. 5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers. 6) Help using the forum? Watch this video to learn general tips on using the site.
If you want to support our community, become an Elite Member.
The following user says Thank You to Big Mike for this post:
I would say: off course not. Each spin is independent of the previous one, i.e. there is no "memory" for previous outcomes (only your own memory. ). This effect is also know as the Gambler's Fallacy.
..
The following user says Thank You to Jura for this post:
Just like when flipping a fair coin, the chance of heads vs. tails is always 50/50. It doesn't matter if heads has landed 10 times in a row, the next flip has no better odds of being tails, it is still 50/50. The same is true for the roulette wheel.
This is also why backtesting with insufficient sample size leads to erroneous results. You can imagine that if you flip a coin just ten times, there may not be exactly 5 heads and 5 tails. You can imagine such a thing in backtesting for trading, if you got 6 heads and 4 tails you may think you have a winning strategy, when in fact you simply have insufficient sample size.
Lookup the Law of Large Numbers for more info.
Mike
Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.
Need help? 1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first. 2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses. 3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make. 4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance. 5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers. 6) Help using the forum? Watch this video to learn general tips on using the site.
If you want to support our community, become an Elite Member.
The following user says Thank You to Big Mike for this post:
You assume that it is an ideal regular wheel. Your statement is correct in case that the wheel is regular and has not been manipulated.
However, in real life (physicists unlike economists have to prove their models empirically) the wheel may well be manipulated. If you have observed a number of events that do not fit the Gaussian distribution, this affects the probability that the wheel was regular. Finally your question did not state that it was a regular wheel, which would produce random result with an expectancy of 9/19 (American Roulette) or 18/37 (French Roulette) for black numbers. So if I do not know, whether the wheel is regular, the ex-post probability that it is a regular wheel changes, once I have observed an unlikely series of black numbers (the physicist knows from experience that models usually do not work in real life).
As a trader I observe markets that are mostly random. Only non-random patterns are tradeable, as they rely on feedback and thus create stochastic dependence between the events of the time series. A regular roulette wheel only produces random patterns with a negative expectancy, so it is of no interest to a seasoned trader. When playing Black Jack, however, you may have a positive expectancy, if you know how to count the cards.
The following 2 users say Thank You to Fat Tails for this post:
). This effect is also know as the 
