Syria and the stock market result
|September 12th, 2013, 12:54 AM||#31 (permalink)|
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I was tempted to vote, back at the end of August, that the SP500 would move higher. I held off, because I don't have a lot of confidence in trading on either the news or guesses about what the news will be, nor how the market will react to it.
However, my reasoning at the time was simply that the "bad" news of an attack was already in the market, so the actual event wouldn't move prices any lower... the old saw about buy (or sell) the rumor, sell (or buy) the news.
Since people were pretty convinced at the time that an attack was just around the corner, that logic may have worked even though the attack didn't happen, as the SP has risen since then.
Just now I did vote (9/12/13, 12:13 AM ET), and I added my vote to the small minority that expects the S&P to be higher even now.
Since the current US position is much more pro-negotiation and an attack is not apparently going to happen tomorrow, it may appear that optimism is the better idea, which traditionally implies a bullish outlook on the market.
That may be true, but it's not my reasoning. I still simply think that the bearish case has been built into the market, and is still widely believed, and that the market will, as usual, prove the majority wrong. I think there is enough uncertainty in the current situation to allow more market advance, purely on a contrary basis. And particularly, if the news gets better, it may get the shorts more nervous and keep things going up for a time.
That said, I don't really know how the market will respond to the Syria news (nor what it will be), and I don't ever trade on the news anyway.... some do, and can do it well, but I just don't. And ignoring news keeps me calmer at night.
But I thought I would toss my hat into the ring, so here it is. Time will tell.