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North Korea war wildcard for trading
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North Korea war wildcard for trading

  #1 (permalink)
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North Korea war wildcard for trading

North Korea's Kim Jong Un is under pressure to secure his dominance and prove his manhood to his military. All the recent rhetoric seems dialed up several notches from the normal amount in recent years.

Should he act out on his pent up hormones, how would that translate to the US economy and markets?

I know lately he has been promising to attack the US, but a direct attack on the US mainland seems too much even for him. He has to know that is a game ender for his country. Attacking South Korea seems far more likely in my mind, which would demand a US military response but no where near the response you would find if he attacks US mainland.

Thoughts on economical and market impact of such a war?

World War II was thought to end the Great Depression, but is the situation the same now? Is war good for the economy? I would say no. We've already been at war for the last 10 years, I can't see any added benefit to going to war with North Korea would bring the economy.

Your thoughts?

Mike

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  #2 (permalink)
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Since we are at historical highs, a war would be the best excuse for a major high in the markets, but then again, earnings season is upon us so maybe that will be the excuse...

I can't imagine what a war would meant to the world at this moment.
Europe is having problems with the possibility of a complete meltdown of the Euro and the European Commission itself.
The USA with their federal budget problem, China and its real state bubble that no one can imagine what will happen if the bubble burst...

And now if those problems were not enough, a kid decides to play truth or dare

When you think the problems might have been fixed or at least sustained, there's always something that comes to ruin it.

Is it me or the last couple of years we have been always living at the top of a precipice, always looking down, always on the verge of falling but at the last moment we have been able to secure ourselves.
How long will we be able to sustain all problems has we have been?

Again, a war at this moment might initiate the biggest recession the world has ever seen.



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  #3 (permalink)
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arnie View Post
Since we are at historical highs, a war would be the best excuse for a major high in the markets, but then again, earnings season is upon us so maybe that will be the excuse...

For the last three years, I believe the trend has heavily leaned towards "sell in May". All the talk I hear is about a big retracement coming in May.

Three years does not make a trend and I haven't examined data beyond that.

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  #4 (permalink)
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war would benefit some...

War would be the perfiect cover for the government to seize your bank deposits and turn them over to the banksters. The DHS is also prepared to take the gold from your safe deposit boxes.

Buy your PM's with cash and keep them in your mattress.

It Can Happen Here: The Confiscation Scheme Planned for US and UK Depositors | WEB OF DEBT BLOG

You have a lot more to fear from Barack Husanto Odimon than from Klown Il Un.

When it comes to Fake Food and Fake Banking, our President is tops.

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Last edited by Zondor; March 29th, 2013 at 09:51 PM.
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  #5 (permalink)
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Zondor View Post
War would be the perfiect cover for the government to seize your bank deposits and turn them over to the banksters. The DHS is also prepared to take the gold from your safe deposit boxes.

Buy your PM's with cash and keep them in your mattress.

It Can Happen Here: The Confiscation Scheme Planned for US and UK Depositors | WEB OF DEBT BLOG

You have a lot more to fear from Barack Husanto Odimon than from Klown Il Un.

When it comes to Fake Food and Fake Banking, our President is tops.

Oh good grief Zondor. I'll have to place you on ignore now.

Mike

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  #6 (permalink)
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Zondor View Post
War would be the perfiect cover for the government to seize your bank deposits and turn them over to the banksters. The DHS is also prepared to take the gold from your safe deposit boxes.

Buy your PM's with cash and keep them in your mattress.

It Can Happen Here: The Confiscation Scheme Planned for US and UK Depositors | WEB OF DEBT BLOG

You have a lot more to fear from Barack Husanto Odimon than from Klown Il Un.

When it comes to Fake Food and Fake Banking, our President is tops.

Agree it's possible. Historically war has often been an excuse to confiscate property. Just that today's corporatist media will marginalize news until it's too late.

Gerald Celente said the first sign the public will see when it really hits the fan and they can't kick the can down past the end of the road anymore is when people can't get their deposits out of bank runs. i.e. frozen banks.

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  #7 (permalink)
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I'm happy with QE to Infinity.. who needs confiscation when we have an uber powerful King of the Central Bankers, Ben, Ben, Ben.... hahhah

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  #8 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
Attacking South Korea seems far more likely in my mind, which would demand a US military response but no where near the response you would find if he attacks US mainland.

Thoughts on economical and market impact of such a war?

World War II was thought to end the Great Depression, but is the situation the same now? Is war good for the economy? I would say no. We've already been at war for the last 10 years, I can't see any added benefit to going to war with North Korea would bring the economy.

Hmm, well, they've already shelled that island off the west coast of South Korea, as well as sinking that military ship a few years back. Full escalation would be shelling Seoul, as the U.S. military base is smack dab in the middle of the city. That'll be full war. N.K. won't get support from Red China on this; Red China has already signaled that war is bad for business, and they don't want that. As others have pointed out, a war will finally put an end to the N.K. regime.

If there is a full escalation from N.K., Seoul will be flattened within a few hours from the artillery (20-30 miles away? if that) ; out of a city of 10M, let's say at least 20% are immediately killed since most people live in the high-density high-rises there. I'm not sure how many Southern high-value industries are within shelling range (i.e. IC plants, DRAM manufacturing, flat panels, etc.) so that would have to figure into a recovery after the fact.

What is depressing is; a war would "distract" from all of the world's major issues, present and future.

Definitely glad not to be traveling that area of the world on business right now.

I did ask some of my relatives there on their views; they believe that the generals and older relatives of the Fat Faced One are the real power, and all of this is sabre-rattling. They want to preserve the status quo since the end of the regime will put them on trial for crimes-against-humanity.

Trading-wise; so long as you have your stops or hedges in, no problemo.

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Big Mike View Post
Oh good grief Zondor. I'll have to place you on ignore now.

Mike






Well, war will certainly make many people rich. And since it will just be another foreign war, if it stays isolated,
nothing much will happen. I think China, at this point, thinks this kid is a joke, so if we play "nice war", they
would be happy for us to drain more resources as we play world police and they sit back and buy up
world real estate. If they lend assistance, however, and we get into the same original conflict, all bets
are off. The World will go into chaos.

Wars will always be good for business if they are kept contained.


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  #10 (permalink)
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Unless one of the rockets manages to take out the Federal Reserve building or Bernanke himself, the most one can reasonably expect given the last four years is a "buying opportunity", ie -- a short-term selloff.

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