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2012 Election
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2012 Election

  #1 (permalink)
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2012 Election

Source: Bespoke Investment Group - Think BIG - Obama Remains Strong on Intrade; GOP Strong inCongress


Quoting 
Four months from today, citizens across the country will hit the ballot boxes to cast their votes in this year's Presidential election. Over at prediction market website, Intrade.com, President Obama continues to hold a near 20-point lead over Mitt Romney in his re-election bid. Obama's odds of winning currently stand at 58.4%, while Romney's odds are below 40 at 39.7%.

Bettors have been widening Obama's lead over the past two months as well. On June 6th, the spread between Obama and Romney was at 8.8% (Obama: 52.3%, Romney: 43.5%). As of today, the spread is Obama +18.7%.

While the polls may suggest a closer race, people wagering actual money have made Obama the odds on favorite as of now.

Intrade.com also has contracts for which party will win the House and the Senate. While Republicans may be down about the Presidential race, they have Congress to fall back on, since they're in the lead to win both the House and Senate. In the House, the Intrade odds for the GOP to maintain control stand at 86.5% In the Senate, the odds are tighter, but the GOP is still in the lead to win control at 52.3%. The odds for the Democrats to maintain control of the Senate after the November election stand at 29.7%, while the odds for neither party to win control are at 18%.

The odds for the GOP to win the House versus the Senate have been going in opposite directions recently, however. As shown in the second chart below, the odds to win the House have been steadily rising all year, while the odds to win the Senate have been falling.

If the Intrade odds all pan out, we'll have a Democrat in the White House and a Republican controlled Congress. But we all know that four months can be an eternity in an election year, and these odds will likely move around quite a bit between now and early November.

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  #2 (permalink)
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This is what the GOP gets for rigging Ron Paul's delegate wins into obscurity and promoting a onepercenter who hasn't paid taxes (effectively) for 10 years.

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The old guard GOP will be gone in a decade. The GOP began to decline when they abandoned fiscal conservatism.

The reason that the GOP became so powerful was because it aligned social conservatives (aka bible thumpers) with fiscal conservatives and libertarians. Many libertarians were forced to decide between suffering the conservative laws of the GOP (drinking, prostitution, drugs, etc) and suffering the robbery of the Democrats (taxes, redistribution, big government, etc). They obviously chose to keep the government out of their wallet.

But in recent times, we've seen the true nature of the beast.....there's really no appreciable difference between the DNC and the GOP. Social differences are meant to be a distraction from the real evil that's perpetrated. Both parties have become enslaved to corporations and banks and bloated government, bureacrats and regulatory authorities.

The DNC will grow in considerable numbers over the next decade, as seeds they planted with welfare and immigration policy begin to bear fruit. The DNC has long had the idea to flood the electorate with low income, uneducated voters who are supportive of socialist and redistributive policies.

The ONLY thing that can save the Republican party at this point is a resurgence in fiscal conservatism....which they are staunchly resisting. In GOP internal battles, tea party Republicans still fight an unending battle with entrenched old guard Republicans.

The baby boomers are aging and won't live forever. The Christian conservative is a dying breed. 2010 Census data are very alarming when examining relative growth (and shrinkage) rates of various groups. The state of Texas for example, grew by 6 million people between 2000 and 2010...90% of which were minorities.

The GOP better wake up.......the decision before them is to either relinquish power to a new resurgence of Reagan style libertarians...or risk losing everythign and not even having a fillibuster capable force in Congress.

"A dumb man never learns. A smart man learns from his own failure and success. But a wise man learns from the failure and success of others."
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This of course, assumes that the world economy and all fiat currency nations don't implode before the GOP completely dies out.

In the end, I think the damage is done. We're already snake-bitten and we're just operating on borrowed time. We're going to burn and collapse, the question is simply when and how bad. The more fuel (money) we throw on the ignition source to drown it out, the larger the inferno will be when it finally catches.

"A dumb man never learns. A smart man learns from his own failure and success. But a wise man learns from the failure and success of others."
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Romney to name Paul Ryan as VP

Romney to announce running mate Saturday morning – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs

Mitt Romney VP pick: 'All signs point to Ryan' - POLITICO.com

Mitt Romney Set To Pick Paul Ryan As Running Mate

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Please ignore

I really don't believe that Romney has a chance to win the presidency due to majority of college campuses being liberal. Some being close to 90% liberal

P.S. Need 5 posts in order to post a link.

 
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Washington Post , June 21st:
Romney’s Bain Capital invested in companies that moved jobs overseas - The Washington Post

Some debate about the article:
The Offshoring Debate | RealClearPolitics

"Deputy ministerlady of propaganda" (whether true or not, like those global map animations )




(still going to write in Ron Paul's name on the ballot)


Last edited by Cloudy; August 15th, 2012 at 11:48 PM.
 
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Dogs Against Romney

 
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When I saw this.. He could have warned the public.. Instead Martha Stewart had to make
a show about her prison garb.




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  #10 (permalink)
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Cloudy View Post

If true (confirmed?) then that just pisses me off... but obviously shouldn't surprise anyone, it wasn't even illegal until just recently.

On a side note, it's a sad state of affairs when Russia Today has some of the best actual news reporting on America when compared to all the main stream news outlets. But again, not a surprise.

Now Max obviously is a wing nut, but I like Lauren Lyster's program "Capital Account". Max often has good messages to deliver, but he is just way to over the top for me to support

Mike

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