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Scattered thoughts...

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  #1 (permalink)
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I have received a few PMs asking about how I trade over the past 6 months that I've been active on this board. I have not managed to foster the patience to do so, but I thought I'd start to this thread to ease into it.

As the central banks are starting up their presses again, I feel this is just as relevant today:





I'm sure the they've got it covered, though:

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  #3 (permalink)
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I know that many on this board use Market Profile (or at least part of the concept) and therefore I thought I'd share a video I watched last week.

Steidlmayer Volume Strips: J. Peter Steidlmayer (Apologies if it has been posted before)

Steidlmayer is not the best presenter, so expect to spend some effort trying to make sense of it all. However, he does discuss some interesting topics.

And while we're on the subject of both MP and Steidlmayer, I will attach an article from Active Trader that I think should be beneficial to some. It sums up most of his work. He has been saying that the original concept of MP is obsolete for a while now, and has progressed from OFI to Volume Strips (it appears). Others, of course, will argue that it never really worked in the first place and that prices are not distributed normally. (They are right, you should use the Lornzian Distribution instead! Never coming to a store near you... )

I still think that reading about Action Market Theory is a good place to begin for a discretionary trader. It should help one to develop a good trading mindset and to think about what is driving the market. I don't necessarily agree with the theory, but it sparked some ideas that has been useful to me.

The best place to begin would probably be to read Dalton's book (or buy his "Field of Vision" DVDs):
Amazon.com: Mind over Markets: Power Trading With Market Generated Information (9780934380539): James F. Dalton, Eric T. Jones, Robert Bevan Dalton: Books

You can probably find most (or even all of it) described on the Internet, though. Steidlmayer has also written several books... Personally, I would not recommend diving too deep into the subject; I think you will be better off by focusing on statistical analysis. Each to his own, however...

One of the important lessons from the attached article, is that he uses MP as a database. His work with the Liquidity Data Bank is also discussed. I am not really advocating following this exactly, but it is a nice segue to statistical analysis. I sure wished I had purchased a statistics books instead of reading most of the worthless literature on trading that I did. Thankfully, I only skimmed through most of the books. In fact, the only trading book I've read cover-to-cover - is Jesse Livermore's "How To Trade In Stocks". Be sure to get the original 1940 edition (it's on the net), not the abomination edited by Smitten.

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There is some information available on this thread:



I have also posted the market profile handbook there, which was available for free download from the CBOT website for a long time.

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Fat Tails View Post
There is some information available on this thread:



I have also posted the market profile handbook there, which was available for free download from the CBOT website for a long time.

It is still available from the CME website, along with a couple of videos:
Market Profile

Robin Mesch also did a webinar a little while back:
Building a Trading Strategy with Market Profile

I haven't watched it, though. The point of my post was that Market Profile is a highly discretionary tool, but that there are some good thoughts to take away from it.

By the way, this is probably a good time to introduce a futures trader's best friend:
Futures & Options Education for Effective Trading Strategies and Risk Management - CME Group

One can find almost anything one need on that site, no need to give money to vendors.

A good start for a complete beginner:
A Trader's Guide to Futures

I also recommend the exchanges' handbooks:
Amazon.com: The CME Group Risk Management Handbook: Products and Applications (Wiley Finance) (9780470137710): CME Group, John W. Labuszewski, John E. Nyhoff, Richard Co, Paul E. Peterson, Leo Melamed: Books

Amazon.com: CBOT Handbook of Futures and Options (9780071457514): Cbot: Books

This should give a reasonable foundation for understanding the mechanics and certain dynamics of the market place.

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It suddenly occurred to me that it seems that I am "whoring" myself out for a new screen...
In my case, however, I would probably have to pay as much in freight as the screen costs. I think the premise for the competition is good, and I hope it inspires some of the lurkers to contribute. I see this an opportunity to overcome a fraction of my paranoia, but we'll see how that goes...

I just want to emphasize that, after receiving several requests for doing so, I have long been meaning to write a more detailed post about how I arrived at my methodology. I always assumed I would just write a long post and cover it all, before I would retire from the forum. As I've got a lot going on right now, I need to drastically cut back on my presence here. It seems I've become slightly addicted...
However, as I've stated previously, it's just been too daunting a task for me to write an all-encompassing post. I didn't really want to start a journal, because I do not intend for this to take up too much time. My intent is simply explain my path and what information I've found useful, and hopefully that will be beneficial to some.

I will continue this after the close. I was up all night watching the Rock in Rio stream, and I need an hour sleep before the markets open...

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Lornz View Post
Steidlmayer is not the best presenter, so expect to spend some effort trying to make sense of it all. However, he does discuss some interesting topics.

Wow, no joke on steidlmayer being a difficult presenter - but he has the endearing qualities of an academic. Really interesting presentation though. The one thing that lost me was how he came to his high volume "nodes" - at times it seemed as though he was speaking of block trades. However that didn't seem right to me - but it did seem that he was talking about volume transacted at a single price.

The main idea I got from it was that because of the absence of the "service" of a strong group of locals, there is just less volume at intermediate price locations. This is akin to saying there is more volatility in the markets due to lower liquidity. I think what he's getting at is that because of the lower liquidity, we shouldn't think of price as a continuous phenomenon but as a discontinuous phenomenon. This begs the question, "how is it discontinuous?". I think Peter's answer is that traders need to use volume to delineate significant price levels and enter trades as the market moves between them. Thoughts?

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Your summation is quite accurate. Lornz and I have discussed this new approach, at length, and the only immediate ingredient that I would add is 'immediacy'. Steidlmayer is shifting away from paying much attention to historical data of any kind. His assertion is that recent islands of volume (in the sea of price) should be the focus of one's attention, rather than price/time based approaches such as Market Profile. Of course, there is more than that, but you have a firm handle on the essence.

I may be meeting with Steidlmayer in coming days. If I do, I will gather what more I can regarding this new approach, and share here in this forum.


Surly View Post
Wow, no joke on steidlmayer being a difficult presenter - but he has the endearing qualities of an academic. Really interesting presentation though. The one thing that lost me was how he came to his high volume "nodes" - at times it seemed as though he was speaking of block trades. However that didn't seem right to me - but it did seem that he was talking about volume transacted at a single price.

The main idea I got from it was that because of the absence of the "service" of a strong group of locals, there is just less volume at intermediate price locations. This is akin to saying there is more volatility in the markets due to lower liquidity. I think what he's getting at is that because of the lower liquidity, we shouldn't think of price as a continuous phenomenon but as a discontinuous phenomenon. This begs the question, "how is it discontinuous?". I think Peter's answer is that traders need to use volume to delineate significant price levels and enter trades as the market moves between them. Thoughts?


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I didn't quite understand what he was getting at?

The only part I got was that he wanted to not be the first one entering at any level? I never gathered much else, other than him seeming to suggest if price moves in a direction with less contracts being traded, that he's not interested?

 
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Peter is very difficult to understand. It's a problem... Don't feel bad, it took me several days of reviewing notes, videos, and having several discussions about it to better understand the new ideology. I have talked briefly to Peter about 'Volume Strips' and plan to meet with him soon, in hopes to pick his brain a bit more on the subject.

In extreme reductionist mode, the idea goes something like this:

1) A statistically significantly-sized island of volume accumulates at a price or in a tight range (traders have made a collective set of bets in this case)

2) Sooner than later, price will drift from that censensus price, and those that are 'wrong', will need to close their positions.

3) Given the lack of 'service', or liquidity in between island volume distributions, price will move fast and will self-generate as new orders pile on and create momentum.

4) Profits come from transacting near the island distributions and riding the ensuing momentum through to the next distribution.

Again, there is more to it than that, but this is the underlying idea.


forrestang View Post
I didn't quite understand what he was getting at?

The only part I got was that he wanted to not be the first one entering at any level? I never gathered much else, other than him seeming to suggest if price moves in a direction with less contracts being traded, that he's not interested?


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  #11 (permalink)
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Well, well, well... Look what the cat dragged in!

I apologize, @Surly! I started writing a reply, but then I got distracted and forgot all about this thread. I think my unconscious mind tried to prevent me from diluting my source of income.

The concept is hard to grasp, both due to the complex/confusing nature of the subject, but also because he is a sub-par presenter. I spent several days trying to understand it all, and had lengthy discussions with @zer0 about it. He has already shared our combined understanding and, seemingly, hijacked my very own thread. I guess that is how it goes when one has assholes for friends!

This "invasion'" has inspired me to get this thread back on track... I will do so over the next couple of days...

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Looked in a few other places and a lot of people seem to say similiar things about the confusing part of it.

My idea of what it sounded like to me was opposite of what fading the edge of a profile area. But to wait for some distribution to be broken and look to trade to the next distribution area.

 
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It is all very new and more information will come to light in time. For now, it simply is an interesting topic. I have little doubt that within a year or so, there will be a book (or books) that will make things much clearer. Until then....


forrestang View Post
Looked in a few other places and a lot of people seem to say similiar things about the confusing part of it.

My idea of what it sounded like to me was opposite of what fading the edge of a profile area. But to wait for some distribution to be broken and look to trade to the next distribution area.


 
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You know what they say.... Keep your friends close and your asshole friends closer!


Lornz View Post
Well, well, well... Look what the cat dragged in!

I apologize, @Surly! I started writing a reply, but then I got distracted and forgot all about this thread. I think my unconscious mind tried to prevent me from diluting my source of income.

The concept is hard to grasp, both due to the complex/confusing nature of the subject, but also because he is a sub-par presenter. I spent several days trying to understand it all, and had lengthy discussions with @zer0 about it. He has already shared our combined understanding and, seemingly, hijacked my very own thread. I guess that is how it goes when one has assholes for friends!

This "invasion'" has inspired me to get this thread back on track... I will do so over the next couple of days...


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  #15 (permalink)
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zer0 View Post
In extreme reductionist mode, the idea goes something like this:

1) A statistically significantly-sized island of volume accumulates at a price or in a tight range (traders have made a collective set of bets in this case)

2) Sooner than later, price will drift from that censensus price, and those that are 'wrong', will need to close their positions.

3) Given the lack of 'service', or liquidity in between island volume distributions, price will move fast and will self-generate as new orders pile on and create momentum.

4) Profits come from transacting near the island distributions and riding the ensuing momentum through to the next distribution.

Again, there is more to it than that, but this is the underlying idea.

This sums it up nicely, I think.

I don't want to spend too much time on this before we hear what comes of @zer0 's meeting with Steidlmayer. As this is still in its infancy, it would be interesting to use the collective wisdom of this thread's readers and dissect it further. I guess we will have to wait for his report.

But, I want to add a couple of thoughts. Keep in mind that they are only assumptions based on my attempted deciphering of his less-than straightforward presentation.

First of all, he talks a lot about "price discovery", which simply means recent accumulated volume at a certain level/interval. One has to decide what is considered "significant". The less volume at the level, the more price discovery risk one puts on. When trading new prices, one usually takes on a 100% price discovery risk. One needs to lessen that burden as much as possible by trading new orders/volume instead. He equates this to how the (successful) floor traders could see the order flow and trade with size.

He also speaks of "timeframes". This means various-length buyers/sellers. People willing to suffer a little pain now for future gain. The, first, and best, example of a timeframe is the seasonal. Market Profile assumes a price/time database, where the timeframes would bridge the gap between supply and demand. This coincides with the principles of Auction Market Theory.
The floor traders would often try to establish a range, the IB, and then trade rotations within that range. Many would then fade those extremes and the market would have to "overcome" that pressure in order to break out. The better the locals could "sniff out" the timeframes' presence, the "prettier" the distribution would be.

Now he speaks of waiting for price-discovery to be made and hold the trade until the next distribution. He calls them "barbell distributions", where both extremes have the most volume and it's thinner in between. As you don't have floor traders and timeframes to trade "through", you get swifter movements and more "leverage" (because there is less resistance between distribution points).
I guess you can say that it's essentially trend trading between areas of plurality.

The main difference between Volume Strips and Market Profile is that he now views markets as short-term and supply-driven, i.e. a supply/price database. There are virtually no timeframes present. This is how it was before the exchange was formed, when farmers would grow crops and "dump" it on the cash market. In this kind of market -- supply dictates price. Unlike MP, where one usually had only one distribution (except for the occasional double distribution), he now asserts that distributions occur all the time. The markets, he claims, are now disconnected from fundamentals and therefore self-generating.

He is mostly concerned with newer volume and constantly parses the range. He does this by applying a "99 program". This is simply to view the relative strength of the high-volume node with the surrounding volume. He brackets the range and trades the break out in either direction. I view it as S/R-areas emerging out of chaos and trading those as they occur. Trying to understand the markets on a deeper level is not possible...

Keep in mind that this is just what I got out of the presentation and not necessarily my sentiment on the validity of the content. The basic philosophy approaches some of my own thoughts and techniques, but, for obvious reasons, I will not go into deeper detail about that.

I guess we have to wait for @zer0 's meeting with Steidlmayer before we can further advance the discourse. I, at least, very much look forward to it!

I also want to make clear that I was just kidding around in the earlier post, and I welcome any and all questions; The best way to learn is through healthy debate...

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zer0 View Post
You know what they say.... Keep your friends close and your asshole friends closer!

Haha, I was just mad because you forced me to write the monster of a post I just did. I was trying to break free from the shackles of this virtual prison!

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forrestang View Post
Looked in a few other places and a lot of people seem to say similiar things about the confusing part of it.

My idea of what it sounded like to me was opposite of what fading the edge of a profile area. But to wait for some distribution to be broken and look to trade to the next distribution area.

Pretty much. It's basically based on waiting for distribution intervals to occur and trading the breakouts (in either direction)... Fading can still occur, though...

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Excellent @Lornz and @zer0 - thanks for bringing your discussion (and the general discussion of Peter's ideas) into the forum. I look forward to your comments after your meeting Zer0.

I do have one question about Peter himself (and I don't really expect a definitive answer - just a discussion if warranted). Peter seems to me to be someone who likes to see his ideas adopted into the mainstream. Obviously there is a financial incentive - if adopted generally there will be a demand for his (patent pending I assume) products/ideas. However I wonder if his deeper motivation is that of intellectual pride (and I don't actually mean this derogatorily at all). He seems to easily discount prior models of market theory and take it as a forgone conclusion that graphical/statistical representation of volume strips will become de rigueur. I guess none of my commentary here really matters because one needs to take his ideas on their own merit but, at least for me, it does give me a way to weight some of his conclusions and statements.

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Surly View Post
Excellent @Lornz and @zer0 - thanks for bringing your discussion (and the general discussion of Peter's ideas) into the forum. I look forward to your comments after your meeting Zer0.

I do have one question about Peter himself (and I don't really expect a definitive answer - just a discussion if warranted). Peter seems to me to be someone who likes to see his ideas adopted into the mainstream. Obviously there is a financial incentive - if adopted generally there will be a demand for his (patent pending I assume) products/ideas.

Right. He sold Market Profile to the CBOT and a whole lot of books as well. Can you blame him? One thing is clear, while he is technically a vendor, he is no run-of-the-mill vendor. He is highly respected as a trader here in Chicago and presumably the world.

However I wonder if his deeper motivation is that of intellectual pride (and I don't actually mean this derogatorily at all).

If you read about his background, he is an academic as much as he is a trader; maybe more so. Anyway, this is of little surprise to me.

He seems to easily discount prior models of market theory and take it as a forgone conclusion that graphical/statistical representation of volume strips will become de rigueur.

I cannot agree with the assertion that he 'easily discounts' models. He created Market Profile in the 80's and has advocated it until only recently. However, I do not know every concept he has ever proposed, so perhaps I'm wrong about that. Do you have examples? Maybe I simply misinterpreted your concern, so please feel free to clarify if I'm off base.

I guess none of my commentary here really matters because one needs to take his ideas on their own merit but, at least for me, it does give me a way to weight some of his conclusions and statements.

Ultimately it comes down to utility. Do you make money with Market Profile? If Volume Strips make you more than Market Profile, we then have all we need to know. Of course the issue that remains is the precise applicability of the methodology. Many questions remain as this is only the beginning.


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Thanks @zer0! Your comments were perfect - just what I was curious about. I guess my post came across as a slight to Peter - which was not my intention. My examples are just the impression I got from the presentation and the active trader article that I think Lornz posted. And, no, I don't blame him one bit - I think its great that he has received notoriety and financial rewards for his ideas - he's obviously a genius. I, for one, do fall into the trap of taking the pronouncements of genius at face value so was just curious about how to weight some of his statements (given that he came across as very confident of his conclusions and methods).

Anyway, I guess I've derailed the thread again. I'll shut up for now.

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Surly View Post
Thanks @zer0! Your comments were perfect - just what I was curious about. I guess my post came across as a slight to Peter - which was not my intention. My examples are just the impression I got from the presentation and the active trader article that I think Lornz posted. And, no, I don't blame him one bit - I think its great that he has received notoriety and financial rewards for his ideas - he's obviously a genius. I, for one, do fall into the trap of taking the pronouncements of genius at face value so was just curious about how to weight some of his statements (given that he came across as very confident of his conclusions and methods).

Anyway, I guess I've derailed the thread again. I'll shut up for now.

He served on the CBOT's board of directors for three years., came up with Market Profile, and, maybe more importantly, the Liquidity Data Bank. But he also failed with X-Funds, which, similar to VS, is difficult to grasp at first.

He is a vendor, but, at least how I perceive him, is more about evolving the marketplace than to make a few bucks; He is more a market philosopher than an evil blood-sucking vendor from the netherworld. I think he is quite comfortable now, anyway. I don't agree with all his reflections, but he has given me food for thought in the past (and now). He clearly has some active synapses, perhaps too many (as is evident in the presentation). Like all of his ilk, he is ego-driven. But most that accomplishes anything are just that. In fact, we all are. Nietzsche spoke of the "will to power" being the driving force for all human beings, and I tend to agree. Alas, that is often misunderstood (and bastardized by Ayn Rand, e.g.) to mean power over others -- it might just as well mean control over one's own life.

I agree with the basic philosophy of VS and I have been trading in a similar fashion for years. My focus, however, has been price -- not volume. I will elaborate more in a later post.

The world, and the markets, have become increasingly primitive in recent times. He speaks of going back to a pre-exchange "database" and I agree with that sentiment. I think the good trading books from the beginning of the last century is just as relevant now, and even more than 20 years ago. I actually think the world is in a state of regression and that we're heading back to the Dark Ages. Religion and superstitions are on the rise, people seem to care less about anything outside their immediate surroundings and scientific literacy is declining. We are becoming more technologically advanced and ignorant at the same time. My theory is that there are now so much information available that people become overwhelmed and "shut off". There are so many "facts", that it seems easier to just "believe".

I like to believe that the pendulum will swing back, but the question is when...

I think this article sums it up pretty well:
https://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/14/opinion/sunday/the-elusive-big-idea.html?_r=1&pagewanted=all

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@Lornz, its all well and good to quote the new york times, but I think we all know where the real commentary on our times can most reliably be observed:




Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty. - Frank Herbert
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@Lornz, its all well and good to quote the new york times, but I think we all know where the real commentary on our times can most reliably be observed:

Idiocracy - Trailer - YouTube


That movie is both funny and painful to watch. Let's hope it doesn't get that bad...

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@Lornz

I have read you mention 'Clean Chart' before. What exactly do you mean by this?

Also, do you use any form of opening range methods to find trades? You mentioned before finding certain things that become obvious once you see them. Where you referring to something in order flow, price patterns within bars, or some type of profile activity?

 
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@Lornz

I have read you mention 'Clean Chart' before. What exactly do you mean by this?

Also, do you use any form of opening range methods to find trades? You mentioned before finding certain things that become obvious once you see them. Where you referring to something in order flow, price patterns within bars, or some type of profile activity?

I just meant that I don't have indicators or lines on it, I just use it for visual reference. I also try to filter out as much noise as I can.

I will answer your other question in a future post. I intend to write a little about that topic, but not tonight. It's Friday night and you know what that means....


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While I don't agree with Ron Paul on everything, I think this interview is really good. Usually these kinds of things are just filled with fluff, it's rare to see some straight talk...


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"Volume Strips" is available, however, you have to be using CTS to use them. You must go through Steven Hawkins, ( Pete's associate), to get set up.

Steven Hawkin's contact info:

hawk0101@hotmail.com

312.360.9466

CTS Futures contact info:

Tim Dare

c-773 653 1423
w- 312 447 5416

http://cts.sim.t4login.com/register/

tim@ctsfutures.com
www.ctsfutures.com

The volume strip application currently interfaces with T4, only ( they will be adding TT by the end of the year). Currently the annual lease is $350(will be going up in the future I believe) which can be paid via pay pal / credit card. There isn't much educational material (1 document covering key strokes of vol. strip and one document going over some of the theory), observation and self discovery will be the best path to success. They don't offer any free trials or an interface for sim trading.

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I have the software, but haven't done much with it yet. My interest in it, so far, is academic. It's always fun/exciting to try something new, particular from someone like Peter. Anyway, I'm sure a few of us will have fun exploring the new world of VS.


tigertrader View Post
"Volume Strips" is available, however, you have to be using CTS to use them. You have to go through Steven Hawkins, ( Pete's associate), to get set up.

Steven Hawkin's contact info:

hawk0101@hotmail.com

312.360.9466

CTS Futures contact info:

Tim Dare

c-773 653 1423
w- 312 447 5416

http://cts.sim.t4login.com/register/

tim@ctsfutures.com
www.ctsfutures.com

The volume strip application currently interfaces with only T4( they will be adding TT by the end of the year). Currently the annual lease is $350(will be going up in the future I believe) which can be paid via pay pal / credit card. There isn't much educational material (1 document covering key strokes of vol. strip and one document going over some of the theory), observation and self discovery will be the best path to success. They don't offer any free trials or an interface for sim trading.


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Lornz View Post
I just meant that I don't have indicators or lines on it, I just use it for visual reference. I also try to filter out as much noise as I can.

I will answer your other question in a future post. I intend to write a little about that topic, but not tonight. It's Friday night and you know what that means....


Lorn,
We give until the end of the year!!

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I have the software, but haven't done much with it yet. My interest in it, so far, is academic. It's always fun/exciting to try something new, particular from someone like Peter. Anyway, I'm sure a few of us will have fun exploring the new world of VS.

zer0 - did you ever have that meeting with Peter?

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He recently had hip surgery, so no; I'm waiting for him to recuperate first. He is supposed to get back to me when ready. More to come.


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zer0 - did you ever have that meeting with Peter?


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I will get this journal done by the end of the year, before I will (more or less) retire my online presence.

One of the most beautiful sensory experiences I know, are the Symphony of Science videos. There was a new one posted yesterday. Be sure to check out An Ode to the Brain and The Quantum World, along with other masterpieces.


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Alright, back to business.

I feel this thread got somewhat derailed, but I guess that is to be expected with a title like that. The whole point of introducing Market Profile was to present the Auction Market Theory. I think that is a good place for discretionary traders to start....

I also think that it is important to learn about market structure, and I would argue that this is one of the first books one should read:
Amazon.com: Trading and Exchanges: Market Microstructure for Practitioners (9780195144703): Larry Harris: Books

Then follow up with this:
Amazon.com: Algorithmic Trading and DMA: An introduction to direct access trading strategies (9780956399205): Barry Johnson: Books


I have been doing some research on functional programming lately, thus I naturally checked out Jane Street's website. I think the first 20 minutes (or so) is well worth watching for everybody:


I would also like to link to their curriculum for new traders:
Jane Street » Curriculum

Game theory and the Kelly criterion is mentioned, both of which I think is important. I have hardly seen a mention of either on this board, though. I find it strange that game theory is not discussed more frequently on trading boards, as it is a critical part of my approach. Trading is all about strategic thinking. This applies both to system development and to discretionary trading. I personally also believe philosophy is a great resource for (especially discretionary) traders, much more so than psychology.

Yale has a game theory course available for free:
Game Theory — Open Yale Courses

I will try to update this thread routinely in the following month.

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Game theory and the Kelly criterion is mentioned, both of which I think is important. I have hardly seen a mention of either on this board, though. I find it strange that game theory is not discussed more frequently on trading boards, as it is a critical part of my approach. Trading is all about strategic thinking. This applies both to system development and to discretionary trading. I personally also believe philosophy is a great resource for (especially discretionary) traders, much more so than psychology.

Game theory has been discussed quite a bit, but it is buried in threads somewhere. Why not start a new thread with a easy title "Game Theory" so we can find it in the future, and start off the discussion?

I also think that traders place too much emphasis on some colored lines on their chart, and not nearly enough emphasis on probabilities and how to deal with or understand them so that you remain in control of your emotions even through a drawdown. Or even better, how to identify and react to a drawdown while also being able to identify when the method has simply stopped working (and not going into a never ending drawdown).

Maybe you would be interested in doing some futures.io (formerly BMT) webinars and talk about this subject at length, answering questions and such?

Mike

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OK, OK, crap - more complicated reading and thinking... @Lornz, when are we going to get to the setups???



Alright, let's talk game theory - but if we're going to do that, we should also talk about Theory of Mind and the Art of War.

"All warfare is based on deception. Hence, when able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must seem inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near."
... Sun Tzu

and


“Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win”
― Sun Tzu

Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty. - Frank Herbert
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@Big Mike | I agree with that. People seem to not sufficiently connect the charts and indicators to the underlying structure of the market. Their chart becomes a separate entity, when in fact it is just a way of filtering information. I will discuss this more in depth later.

I appreciate the offer of doing webinars, but I will respectfully decline. At least for now. My goal is to finish the journal before the end of next month, and I don't want to take on too much. I am also self-conscious about my horrendous Norwegian accent...

@Surly | Just to weed out the majority of readers: I will not be discussing any set-ups. This thread will mostly be about the resources one can use to become a successful trader, coupled with quasi-philosophical ramblings about trading in general. Discretionary trading is not about set-ups anyway, it is about reading the market(s)...

I like The Art of War, there is a lot of wisdom to be derived from that book. A lot of people see aggression as a strength, but it is only really useful in the act of execution. In fact, it can be a significant weakness when one is devising a strategy. Trading is supposed to be a blissful endeavor, I would actually claim that it should act as a stress reliever. There is, of course, a vast difference between scalping, methodical/automatic, and (varying degrees of) discretionary trading. I will discuss this in greater detail in future posts.

Please share your wisdom about Theory of Mind. I "suffer" from Asperger's, thus my ToM is not a good benchmark. I have gotten significantly better at it, though. I would claim that my post history is a testament to that. Or maybe I am still as arrogant, but I have simply become sufficiently deluded to not notice it anymore....

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Well, to begin, my comment about setups was purely sarcastic - I know the concept that a setup could be easily communicated and result in profits is anathema to the way you think about trading. So that was a (failed) joke.

Theory of mind is just the ability to "put yourself in someone else's shoes" or to think about what someone else might think or how they might feel in a given circumstance. I understand that this is difficult for someone with Asperger's - I assume because it is difficult to see the forest for the trees and also because it is difficult to process (and thus empathize with) emotional information.

In trading, one uses theory of mind to understand things like at what point the longs will start to really feel the pain and puke out their contracts and finally allow the market to then begin to climb. It also allows one to consider questions like "what are traders waiting for here?" or "what will the longs think here if this move falters - will they be confident and hold or will they jump out at the first sign of weakness". Questions like these allow us to better understand or "model" the battle going on in the marketplace - if we can accurately model the way market participants are making decisions and what will cause them to decide one thing or the other we can understand the odds or probabilities of various outcomes better.

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I was fully aware that it was an attempt at humor. I almost laughed sufficiently to feel compelled to write it out!

I also know perfectly well what ToM is, but I just don't fully relate to the world in that way. It needs to be said that I have a very light degree of Asperger's, and you couldn't tell by looking at me. In fact, I only found out last year.
I can, more or less, chose whether I fit the criteria or not. The main difference is that ToM is an intellectual task for me, while others have it intuitively. What you call ToM, I call strategic thinking. The fact that I am more emotional detached than most, is just positive as far as trading goes. It seems people often let their emotions get in the way of logical thinking. It also means that I often find social relations to be meaningless and/or exhausting. Just in case anyone thought I was trying to portray myself in a too positive manner.

I only bring this up because I feel it is relevant to the thread. I have never understood other's struggle with discipline or psychology, but that is probably due to my "defect".

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Time to take break from all the reading and watch a few interesting documentaries:



I think these have been posted before somewhere, but I couldn't immediately find the thread.


Don't let the Dutch intro scare you off, it's almost all English from there and completely watchable.

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Lornz, why are you leaving your online presence after the 1st of the year?

side note - I'm 50% Norwegian. I take a pride in my roots.
Lefse this morning for breakfast was most excellent.

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Lornz View Post

I only bring this up because I feel it is relevant to the thread. I have never understood other's struggle with discipline or psychology, but that is probably due to my "defect".

I have felt this way for over a year. I think people CREATE emotional problems with regards to their trading. It is much easier to blame your trading failures on some self-induced emotional/discipline problem, then it is to acknowledge that one simply does not yet know how to identify a likely profitable scenario.

I think people manage to jack themselves about thinking that they just need to master their emotions to become profitable, instead of realizing that they don't know how their market is moving. This is probably one of the nice things about the markets as it will always ensure that those that KNOW what they are doing will continually make money while those that DON'T will continue to look to things other than understanding their market, such as their feelings.

The above circle jerk I describe is a ride I am familiar with unfortunately .

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Lornz View Post
The main difference is that ToM is an intellectual task for me, while others have it intuitively. What you call ToM, I call strategic thinking. The fact that I am more emotional detached than most, is just positive as far as trading goes. It seems people often let their emotions get in the way of logical thinking. It also means that I often find social relations to be meaningless and/or exhausting. Just in case anyone thought I was trying to portray myself in a too positive manner.

I only bring this up because I feel it is relevant to the thread. I have never understood other's struggle with discipline or psychology, but that is probably due to my "defect".

Well, I can tell you that on some days its quite a struggle! Detaching from emotions and focusing your attention on rational reasoning and strategy would certainly seem to give one an advantage where discretionary trading is concerned. Although I agree with @forrestang completely that it is quite difficult to learn how to trade profitably even taking emotional issues completely out of the picture. Early on I fell into the camp of blaming my lack of profitability on emotion/psychology to a much larger degree than warranted. Now I'm working through the emotional trading baggage I picked up along the learning curve.

Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty. - Frank Herbert
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Massive l View Post
Lornz, why are you leaving your online presence after the 1st of the year?

side note - I'm 50% Norwegian. I take a pride in my roots.
Lefse this morning for breakfast was most excellent.

Cool! Since du are 50% Norwegian, betyr that at you forstĺr 100% av this setning?

I haven't had lefse in years, but now I'm craving it. Did you sprinkle it with cinnamon?


forrestang View Post
I have felt this way for over a year. I think people CREATE emotional problems with regards to their trading. It is much easier to blame your trading failures on some self-induced emotional/discipline problem, then it is to acknowledge that one simply does not yet know how to identify a likely profitable scenario.

I think people manage to jack themselves about thinking that they just need to master their emotions to become profitable, instead of realizing that they don't know how their market is moving. This is probably one of the nice things about the markets as it will always ensure that those that KNOW what they are doing will continually make money while those that DON'T will continue to look to things other than understanding their market, such as their feelings.

The above circle jerk I describe is a ride I am familiar with unfortunately .

Exactly! I've alluded to this several times before, but people tend to get very defensive when confronted with the possibility of their system not being good enough. As you said, many beginning traders are chasing their own tails. After doing this for some time, they often end up convinced that it is impossible to for a retail trader to make money. Alternatively, they become a vendor or frequent fora talking the talk, desperate to be perceived as knowledgeable. And, even worse, these people actually give advice to new traders.
I would argue that the same skill required to separate the good advice from the bad on fora, is similar to what it takes to extract the information relevant from the market.





Surly View Post
Well, I can tell you that on some days its quite a struggle! Detaching from emotions and focusing your attention on rational reasoning and strategy would certainly seem to give one an advantage where discretionary trading is concerned. Although I agree with @forrestang completely that it is quite difficult to learn how to trade profitably even taking emotional issues completely out of the picture. Early on I fell into the camp of blaming my lack of profitability on emotion/psychology to a much larger degree than warranted. Now I'm working through the emotional trading baggage I picked up along the learning curve.

A valid approach will eliminate nearly all psychological issues, but developing one is not necessarily easy. Yes, methods can be simple, but the path to them might be paved with complexity.

Eric Berlow: How complexity leads to simplicity | Video on TED.com

Personally, I think traders would be wise to learn more about market structure and macroeconomics, if only to gain a little clarity of the framework within they are operating. It’s hard to have confidence in a system if one doesn’t know why it should work, and, more importantly, its place in the "ecosystem".

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Cool! Since du are 50% Norwegian, betyr that at you forstĺr 100% av this setning?

I haven't had lefse in years, but now I'm craving it. Did you sprinkle it with cinnamon?

ha! yes I understand that but I'm not fluent in writing/speaking Norwegian.
I will be soon enough though. Right now I'm much better with Spanish.

I just put butter and sugar on it but cinnamon would be a nice addition!

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Massive l View Post
ha! yes I understand that but I'm not fluent in writing/speaking Norwegian.
I will be soon enough though. Right now I'm much better with Spanish.

I just put butter and sugar on it but cinnamon would be a nice addition!

Excelente! I am terribly at Spanish; Lornz is not short for Lorenzo...

I assumed you put butter and sugar on it/them, but cinnamon is well worth exploring. It's what the culinary Norwegians do, though. It's not for gastronomical simpletons!

It seems I forgot to answer your question in my previous reply: I'm leaving simply because I don't feel that I get much out of it anymore. I've been lucky enough to have met a trading partner, so I feel less inclined to post on public boards now.

I am also a full-time student and trader, so I don't have as much time to waste on the internet. And, as I am studying mathematical finance, I find other fora more interesting. I might lurk from time to time, but I need to cut back drastically.

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Norway's Butter Shortage - The Colbert Report - 2011-12-12 - Video Clip | Comedy Central

Damn you Americans for making fun of our misery. I will be able to eat any cookies this Christmas....

Can any readers of this thread send me a few pounds of quality butter?

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Lornz View Post
Norway's Butter Shortage - The Colbert Report - 2011-12-12 - Video Clip | Comedy Central

Damn you Americans for making fun of our misery. I will be able to eat any cookies this Christmas....

Can any readers of this thread send me a few pounds of quality butter?


@Lornz:

I think that there is a way out of your misery:



How to buy a reindeer: Instructions

1. Contact the Reindeer Owners and Breeders Association. They can let you know what to expect when raising a reindeer and tell you about breeders who have reindeer available for sale.

2. Email or phone the breeders you are interested in to find out about the reindeer calves they have for sale.

3. Decide how soon you want to take possession of your reindeer. Some breeders will allow you to take the babies at a young age if you are willing to do the bottle feeding yourself, while others prefer to wait until the calf has weaned from his or her mother.

4. Find out from the breeder what you will need to successfully raise your calf to an adult reindeer. He or she will be able to recommend dimensions for a reindeer pen, optimum diets to feed your growing calf and how to protect your new pet from chronic wasting disease.

5. Take possession of your reindeer calf and plan for Christmas celebrations featuring your new friend!



Now you have got plenty of milk which you can use to produce reindeer butter.


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I had planned to get a lot done on my journal this weekend, but, due to other discussions on this board, I have not been able to. Instead I'll post another video:

This talk by Dr. Al Bartlett is very transferable to trading, and it is, I think, well worth watching. The problems of overpopulation and over-consumption are very real, and things will get regulated one way or the other.

"The Greatest Shortcoming of the Human Race is our Inability to Understand The Exponential Function."


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MIT launches online learning initiative
'MITx' will offer courses online and make online learning tools freely available.

MIT launches online learning initiative - MIT News Office

Stanford started a similar program last fall, be sure to sign up for next semester's classes (scroll to the bottom to see all available):

Computer Science 101

I've enjoyed OpenCourseWare for years, and this is a natural next step. I applaud the universities for offering such courses; the future looks bright for knowledge-hungry individuals.

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I just realized that when I embed Youtube videos, the playlist disappears (even though the URL included the playlist). Am I just stupid, @Big Mike?

Anyway, I thought I post the link to the lecture above and the documentary "The Trillion Dollar Bet" instead. The latter gives a good overview over the different kinds of traders, and it's well worth watching.

The Black-Scholes Formula - 1/5 - YouTube

Arithmetic, Population and Energy - 1 - a talk by Al Bartlett - YouTube

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I was going to post this in the "natures photos" thread, but apparently @aquarian1 has, quite childishly, blocked me. Just because I gave my honest opinion about a vendor... I guess that's why so many traders fail, they choose to live in their own delusional world.

Anyway, I will finish my journal over the next few days. I am taking the week off from trading, thus I should have the time. I apologize for not getting it done last year, as I promised, but I had an infection in a wisdom tooth which spread to my jawbone. I am now enjoying the world through the lens of (synthetic) morphine and it seems so beautiful:


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"Program or be programmed"

Code Year

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Lornz View Post
I was going to post this in the "natures photos" thread, but apparently @aquarian1 has, quite childishly, blocked me.

Welcome to the club. He is the only one who has ever blocked me. Not sharing my sense of humor.


Lornz View Post
"Program or be programmed"
Code Year

They are liars, or how can they pretend to know that exactly 102,070 people have made the resolution to start coding in 2012?

 
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Welcome to the club. He is the only one who has ever blocked me. Not sharing my sense of humor.

Cool, I don't feel so bad! Haha... I feel better now. Thanks Lornz and Fat Tails!

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Fat Tails View Post
Welcome to the club. He is the only one who has ever blocked me. Not sharing my sense of humor.

Thanks, I feel vindicated now!



Fat Tails

They are liars, or how can they pretend to know that exactly 102,070 people have made the resolution to start coding in 2012?

You're right, they can't know the exact number. They can, of course, know that 134 241 people have made the pledge on codeyear.com . It seems like a programming version of Khan Academy, and it might be interesting.


bluemele View Post
Cool, I don't feel so bad! Haha... I feel better now. Thanks Lornz and Fat Tails!

That's why I'm here @bluemele; to make you feel better about yourself...

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I don't mean to complain, but I've never been in more pain and I will need a little more time to finish to abomination.

In the meanwhile:


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Seeing as this thread is mainly about critical thinking, and as I am an anarchist at heart, I think this video fits the theme:


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Lornz View Post
I was going to post this in the "natures photos" thread, but apparently @aquarian1 has, quite childishly, blocked me. Just because I gave my honest opinion about a vendor...

I too am on the naughty list.....and I don't remember why....oh well....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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Lornz View Post
Seeing as this thread is mainly about critical thinking, and as I am an anarchist at heart, I think this video fits the theme:

Wow, this is one of the first times I agree with Fox News Commentary!

It is just ridiculous how little media play Ron Paul gets... Usually on sporting events the media loves the 'underdog' but for some reason in politics with Paul, they do not.

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PandaWarrior View Post
I too am on the naughty list.....and I don't remember why....oh well....

You too, eh? We should start a club or something...



bluemele View Post
Wow, this is one of the first times I agree with Fox News Commentary!

It is just ridiculous how little media play Ron Paul gets... Usually on sporting events the media loves the 'underdog' but for some reason in politics with Paul, they do not.

Yes, exactly. It seems to be working in their disfavor, though. I don't agree with Ron Paul on everything, but it's healthy to shake things up a bit. The message of personal freedom is a strong one!

It's also amazing to see the amount of support he has around the world; "your" foreign policy is not well-liked...

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Lornz View Post
You too, eh? We should start a club or something. ........

ROFL. No wonder Aquarian1 is pissed. we are all picking on the poor bastard...He was very ticked off when I posted here.....



On the flip side, he doesn't know I am an INTJ (a typical INTJ)...for me humour is something like this....



Somebody suggested that before I talk to any human, I should get them to read this.....

INTJ Central: The Compleat Idiot’s Guide to the INTJ


The Complete guide to INTJ asshole types -

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: Where can I find an INTJ?

A: We INTJs are über-introverts, so we prefer asynchronous and semi-anonymous forms of communication. We get most of our socialization through internet forums and Usenet newsgroups. Look for us there.

Q: Can I become an INTJ?

A: Unless you are born an INTJ, your only hope is to find a genie lamp while strolling on the beach, rub it, and make a wish. You can fake being one of us by burying yourself in a mound of books, nerding out on a favorite subject (like quantum mechanics, not needlepoint), wandering around by yourself, not giving a damn what others think of you, etc. If this sounds like too much work, just try doing a good robot impersonation.

Q: How can I break up with my INTJ?

A: Tell us the truth. We’ll reply, “Sure, why not?”, and go on with our lives.

Q: My INTJ is trying to take over the world. Should I be concerned?

A: Remember, he’s trying to take over the world for the betterment of everyone and everything. Just go ahead and let him. He’ll be happy and the world will be a more organized and efficient place.

Q: My INTJ just told me I’m retarded. Should I take offense?

A: You probably are retarded, by our standards. But don’t take offense. Our standards are so high that even we don’t meet them. We judge ourselves more harshly than we judge others.

Q: My INTJ isn’t sensitive to my feelings. Should I take offense?

A: We aren’t even sensitive to our own feelings. Why should we be expected to be sensitive to yours? We won’t even try to fake it. Insincerity is a pet peeve of ours, and anyway, it would ruin our reputation if we ever showed emotion.

Q: Why doesn’t my INTJ ever show emotions or feelings?

A: Because he doesn’t have any. Actually, that’s not strictly true; it’s just that we tend to get emotional about things you might not appreciate. INTJs have been known to cry during the liftoff scene in “Apollo 13″, for example, and there are also many touching moments in some of the Star Trek movies. An INTJ may also smile or laugh at random for no apparent reason; probably one of the voices in his head just made a good joke.

Q: My INTJ doesn’t care about me any more after he tried to explain his idea and I didn’t listen. What should I do?

A: Ideas are of prime importance to INTJs, and disregarding or not listening to our ideas is the highest form of insult. Although INTJs do not hold grudges, neither do we go out of our way to associate with people who don’t give serious consideration to our ideas. You’ll be in damage control mode for quite some time, fighting an uphill battle to get back into our good graces.

Q: My INTJ won’t talk to me. What should I do?

A: What subjects are you trying to talk about? Most INTJs hate gossip, and all of us hate talk of relationships. We also don’t do small talk. Try quantum physics, psychology, or some other deep (but non-touchy/feely) topic. If all else fails, try email instead.

Q: Why does my INTJ keep correcting my grammar?

A: Probably because you are being grammatically incorrect. The next time you tell your INTJ that you’re going to “try and [do something]”, prepare to get bitch-slapped. It’s “try to”, not “try and”. And there’s no such word as “irregardless”. Words have specific meanings, and language has specific rules; please abide by them. And don’t even get us started on your contextually ambiguous use of pronouns.

Q: I have this REALLY good idea… should I tell an INTJ?

A: Sleep on it… for a week or so. If it’s still so appealing, sleep on it for another week. Then maybe run it by one of us and we’ll pick it apart for you. Your idea is more likely to survive our scrutiny relatively unscathed if you have actual logical arguments and sound evidence with which to back it up.

Q: Is it dangerous to annoy an INTJ?

A: First we will ignore you, then we will launch a volley of extremely witty but esoteric insults that will probably go right over your head, and finally we will just engage the “nod-and-smile” autopilot and go back to ignoring you. Best to leave us alone at this point. If you push us too far we may blow up your head with our telekinetic abilities. So, yes, it can be dangerous to annoy an INTJ.

Q: What are the pet peeves of INTJs?

A: Thanks for asking. Our pet peeves are:

We dislike surprises.
We hate having decisions made for us. We’re INTJs; nobody is more qualified to make decisions than us.
We dislike getting gifts, as it burdens us with the need to reciprocate.
We hate small talk, gossip, and relationship/people talk. Really anything mundane is beneath us.
We get particularly annoyed by attacks on our intelligence, competence, and integrity.
We hate it when people try to manipulate us.
Insincerity and lying.
People interfering with our alone time.
People who are chronically late.
People who talk incessantly. We will just engage our “nod and smile” autopilot and mentally go somewhere else.
People who are stupid, arrogant, opinionated, and/or closed minded.
Crooked/badly placed pictures.
Superficiality (body piercings, pimped out cars, brightly colored anything).
Salespeople. INTJs are immune to emotional manipulation and have zero tolerance for lines of bullshit.
Incorrect grammar and word usage.
People who waste our time (see Salespeople, people interfering with our alone time, etc.).
Q: My INTJ keeps disappearing. Is this normal?

A: Yes. We need our “alone time” to recharge, more so than any of the other introverted MBTI types. Being around people for very long sucks the life force out of us, and we sneak off to be by ourselves whenever our “low battery” warning light starts to flash. (And in those cases where we can’t disappear physically, we will retreat into our minds.) Consequently we have great stealth capability; we can sit in a corner, observing while being unobserved, and we can escape, unnoticed, when we’re ready to move on.

Q: Why can’t my INTJ remember anything?

A: This is normal. Most of us INTJs are very forgetful. We have too much going on in our heads at any time to remember a lot of new stuff. Also, we zone out and go into autopilot mode quite frequently. We often won’t remember where we put our car keys because we weren’t “there” when we did it.

Q: My INTJ employee consistently strolls into work an hour late and leaves an hour late, every day. He/she seems to make their own hours, however the job gets done rather well. Should I feel disrespected?

A: Time is relative to the INTJ, and getting the job done right is paramount. We do not like wasting our time, so we will often adjust our schedules accordingly to miss AM and PM rush-hour traffic. The more traffic we miss, the more time we have for books, movies, video games, books, message boards, books, etc. You should feel disrespected, although it has nothing to do with them not honoring your work rules; it has to do with them not thinking you are particularly smart or competent. If you were smart/competent, you wouldn’t be going on about getting your wittle bitty feewings hurt by your disrespectful but high-performing INTJ employee.

Q: My INTJ is very pedantic.

A: Strictly speaking, that’s not a question.

Q: Dammit, see what I mean?

A: Yes, the irony was not lost on me as I typed the previous answer.

Q: And sarcastic as hell, too.

A: Sarcasm is a free public service we provide to those within earshot. No need to thank us. We also do irony, hyperbole, word-play and puns, one-liners, quick-witted observations and flippant remarks, and abstract and deep philosophical insights on nonsensical themes. Our sense of humor tends to be dry, warped, and morbid, and not everybody “gets” us.

Q: Why does my INTJ just “shut down” at the end of the day?

A: Our minds are always buzzing with plans and theories, and we cannot voluntarily get it to stop. But even an Indy 500 car will coast to a halt after it runs out of gas. When we are very tired our brains slow down, and we become normal or even a bit retarded. If we start asking you to repeat what you just told us but more slowly this time, and/or if we can no longer perform simple routine tasks like computing an orbital transfer burn or finding a memory leak in 10,000 lines of C++ code, you know it’s time for us to call it a day.

Q: Why is my INTJ so… well, so freakin’ WEIRD??!?

A: It’s probably just a side effect of the way our brains work. Many of us tend to be rather obsessive-compulsive, for instance ordering our cd’s, dvd’s, and books by genre then alphabetically (by title for dvd’s, by group then title for cd’s, and by author then title for books, except for series which must be kept in appropriate serial order). Most of us have other quirks as well, e.g., always eating M&M’s in a specific color order, naming our children in alphabetical order, etc. It’s a small price to pay for genius, really.

Q: Why does my INTJ just start nodding and smiling after we’ve been talking for a couple of minutes?

A: -

Q: I said, WHY DOES MY INTJ START NODDING AND… Oh I get it, you’re being sarcastic again. Does it ever get old?

A: [ hey, more Wayne Newton anagrams… We Want On Yen, Ant On New Yew, Way None Went… ]

Q: Hello? Are you going to answer any more questions?

A: [ … “Hair Salon For Stray Nerd Nuns”, “Larry Moe and Curly’s On”, “Karaoke’s Not That Fun”, “Harry Potter’s Gay Stepson”, … ]

Q: Asshole. I’m outta here.

A: [ works every time
]

 
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I recall starting out in college how vast engineering seemed, classes in this, studies in that - what do I want to do when I grow up. Mechanical engineers look at the world with dampers and springs(f=ma), Electrical engineers define the world with resistors and capacitors(p=ie)... but not until the last years of school did it all come together - the math is all the same.

Trading for me has sort of followed this line of thinking. When I first started there were all these markets, shares, contracts, pips, all these charts, all these indicators, all the setups... but now I am starting to see a commonality with what I focus on. Some say trade the 3min stochastic dips, someone else says enter at the point of a Rising ADX, someone different says it's all about MACD divergence and still others say it Order Flow. Many times more than not these all point to the same or very similar location... over and over and over... just a question of how much power is in that wave and if there is enough, did I see it in time to catch a ride.

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Hello fellow INTJ'er.....



I am not on the extreme side and have actually been an ISTJ when I was younger.

I love those tests as they tell so much about yourself.

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bluemele View Post
Hello fellow INTJ'er.....



I am not on the extreme side and have actually been an ISTJ when I was younger.

I love those tests as they tell so much about yourself.

I hate to take over Lornz's thread, but I will say this - the MB / Keirsey profile is a good way to identify where your strengths might lie in trading. When I took it the first time I was a dyed in the wool INTJ, the 2nd time the test instructor saw shades of INTP (which is similar to J).

So, it was easy for me, the INTJers can be neatly boxed into a type - loner, asocial, not that good with perceptions, dispassionate, logical and able to easily flip between two opposing points of view. This last, I think, is very helpful in not being a one sided person - ie a bull or a bear.

This, and the fact that they abhor group think and mob mentality, along with an ability to work best in isolation and in solo performance endeavours was very instrumental in connecting dots between what Dr Brett and Geoff colvin say about human performance in uncertain endeavours. This profile can be unhelpful because the same strengths can work against one in misconstruing mob perception which is a consideration in trading. What is neat is that, INTJ brains exist in considerable shades of grey when evaluating certain life situations (like trading) - which I think is very helpful to my trading.

No wonder my favorites characters in films have been misanthropes like The Joker and "V".

I think this derseves its own thread or inclusion somehwere else though. Sorry Lornz.

 
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Deucalion View Post
I think this derseves its own thread or inclusion somehwere else though. Sorry Lornz.

New thread on that topic: Personality Types & Trading

vvhg

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No worries, @Deucalion! I actually considered starting a psychology thread dealing with personality types/disorders, information processing and consciousness last summer, but I never got around to it.

I am, of course, also an INTJ. In fact, it seems most traders share those traits. I've mellowed out a little in the past few years, especially after trading gave me the freedom to live life as I want to, so I'm nearly an INTX now. Truth be told, I'm not to comfortable with all these labels, as I view most of psychology as a pseudoscience, but I have to admit that the description fits me pretty good.

It's quite obvious that it's an advantage to be an obsessive perfectionist that abhors herd mentality in this profession. A lot of people simply does not a personality that lends itself to trading success, and that is probably why most fail. I'm not saying that it's impossible to learn or change one's personality sufficiently to succeed; the extent of neuroplasticity is still being discovered, thus it might just be a matter of time and effort. However, I am a little skeptical of that, and it's hard to imagine a successful discretionary trader that doesn't have the traits of an INTJ.

@tulanch I agree with that. That's what most overlook in trading, that all of these indicators, chart types, etc are just different ways of visualizing the data. As a directional trader, which almost all on this forum are, one is simply trying to ride a wave -- no matter how small.

@bluemele With your "we're all brothers and sisters" talk, I had you pegged as an INFJ!

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PandaWarrior View Post
I too am on the naughty list.....and I don't remember why....oh well....

Just ran across this...I too am on aquarians sht list...(something I questioned in one of his threads) he tolerates no dissent.

 
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Interesting thread.....I guess I'm in the INTJ camp as well, not 100% but definitely in that category.
It was a little spooky looking over the idiots guide...nice to know I'm not alone on this...oh wait ...I'm not alone...I got to go...see ya..

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Lornz View Post

@bluemele With your "we're all brothers and sisters" talk, I had you pegged as an INFJ!

Yah, I do believe we can fight our natural genetic predisposition. It easy to care and requires me to slip out of my normal routine which isn't natural, but feels 'right'.....


kbit View Post
Just ran across this...I too am on aquarians sht list...(something I questioned in one of his threads) he tolerates no dissent.

I think everyone is. I think he just doesn't want anyone posting on his thread if I am not mistaken, so probably not anything to ruffle anyone's feathers over.

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kbit View Post
Just ran across this...I too am on aquarians sht list...(something I questioned in one of his threads) he tolerates no dissent.

And the list just gets longer and longer....

It seems he is prejudice against INTJ's, we should report him!

He's probably doing himself a disfavor, though. It's not possible to "ignore" the market's opinion, so it's probably a good idea to acknowledge that others' viewpoints might differ from one's own. Being so irrationally emotional is hardly a good trait for a trader.

And just to clarify: I wasn't even being rude to him, I was simply stating my honest opinion.

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bluemele View Post
Yah, I do believe we can fight our natural genetic predisposition. It easy to care and requires me to slip out of my normal routine which isn't natural, but feels 'right'.....

At least to some extent. I'm trying hard to become less of an egotistical bastard, but it's a long road ahead...

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Apparently I am in the INTJ group as well. The crooked pictures, dry sense of humor, interruption of alone time, very forgetful.


Deucalion View Post
Q: Why does my INTJ just “shut down” at the end of the day?

A: Our minds are always buzzing with plans and theories, and we cannot voluntarily get it to stop. But even an Indy 500 car will coast to a halt after it runs out of gas. When we are very tired our brains slow down, and we become normal or even a bit retarded. If we start asking you to repeat what you just told us but more slowly this time, and/or if we can no longer perform simple routine tasks like computing an orbital transfer burn or finding a memory leak in 10,000 lines of C++ code, you know it’s time for us to call it a day.

When I am burned out I am on a 30 second delay..I always ask my wife to repeat a questions. To damn hard think when your burned out. Same thing in the morning... I refuse to answer questions before I wake up.


Deucalion View Post
Q: My INTJ employee consistently strolls into work an hour late and leaves an hour late, every day. He/she seems to make their own hours, however the job gets done rather well. Should I feel disrespected?

A: Time is relative to the INTJ, and getting the job done right is paramount. We do not like wasting our time, so we will often adjust our schedules accordingly to miss AM and PM rush-hour traffic.

Ok, so like I did this during my second job. If I left @ 7:45 I would get there at 8:01. To get there at 5 till I would have to leave @ 7:20 because of traffic. As a result of leaving @ 7:45 I was always a minute late. My boss confronted me about it. He told me I needed to leave earlier from home. I told my boss I refused to leave 25 minutes earlier just to save 6 minutes and clock in on time. It was a complete waste of my time... He wrote me up!

From INTJ - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Hallmarks of the INTJ include independence of thought and a desire for efficiency. They work best when given autonomy and creative freedom. They harbor an innate desire to express themselves by conceptualizing their own intellectual designs.

I have a great need for efficiency... Nothing irritates me more than a broken process. Conceptualizing and creating is what I do.. I love it..

Now I know!!

SD

nosce te ipsum

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I am an Aquarius... and I am NOT on the sh*tlist.... coincidence?

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I am an Aquarius... and I am NOT on the sh*tlist.... coincidence?


No, I am an Aquarius as well so I guess that nails it down to INTJ discrimination as Lornz suggested....time to file a lawsuit.

 
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No, I am an Aquarius as well so I guess that nails it down to INTJ discrimination as Lornz suggested....time to file a lawsuit.

Damn, and here I was about to renounce my skepticism and start pinning all my hopes and dreams to astrology.

 
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Damn, and here I was about to renounce my skepticism and start pinning all my hopes and dreams to astrology.

Please stay on-track. Trading is a Ponzi scheme, which feeds on new traders.

And astrology is very useful, as it effectively contributes to confuse those aspiring traders.

A confused trader is what is required to take the other side of your trade.

Do not hesitate to continue to link your fate to astrology, but let me know which instruments you trade and at what times.

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I'm also an Aquarius... That's why I was so hurt, I thought we were brethren!

Please don't make fun of Astrology, @Fat Tails . I take that stuff very seriously!

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I'm also an Aquarius... That's why I was so hurt, I thought we were brethren!

Please don't make fun of Astrology, @Fat Tails . I take that stuff very seriously!

I am not making fun. If you are an Aquarius you should try to trade soy beans. I am citing from the scientific writings of W.D.Gann (excerpt from Letters of W.D.Gann - Active Angles and Degrees):

"Examples of live, active angles: at the present writing, Jan. 18, 1954, Saturn Geo, is 8 to 9 degrees Scorpio. Add the square or 90 degrees gives 8 to 9 degrees Aquarius and equals the price 308-309, for May Beans. The planet Jupiter is at 21 degrees Gemini, which is 81 degrees in longitude from "0" the square of 9. Subtract 135 degrees from Jupiter gives 306 or 6 degrees Aquarius. This is why soybeans have met resistance so many times between 306 and 311-1/4. The price resistance levels come out strong around these degrees and prices and the Geometrical angles come out on daily, weekly and monthly, but the power of Saturn and Jupiter aspects, working out Time to these price resistance levels, is what halts the advance in Soybeans."

I am still struggling to understand how to perform those complex calculations.

 
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The key is to throw away that pesky and useless inclination you have called "reason", Fat Tails.

Open your mind dude... Whatever you desire to be true, that is what is real.

Now go read some Deepak Choprah to enlighten yourself.

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The key is to throw away that pesky and useless inclination you have called "reason", Fat Tails.

Open your mind dude... Whatever you desire to be true, that is what is real.

Now go read some Deepak Choprah to enlighten yourself.

Home study course for certified teaching of Perfect Health.

https://www.chopra.com/files/images/PH-Teacher-Packet.pdf

Something like become a professional trader in less than 2 days?

I did not know that Deepak Choprah had followers in down under.

 
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Home study course for certified teaching of Perfect Health.

https://www.chopra.com/files/images/PH-Teacher-Packet.pdf

Something like become a professional trader in less than 2 days?

I did not know that Deepak Choprah had followers in down under.

Depressingly he is quite popular here, and probably even more popular in my home country NZ.

Whilst Deepak could acheive trading mastery in 2 days easily, by harnessing the quantum energy fields etc etc, the estimated 22 million he makes a year by bilking the gullible probably means he doesn't have to.

 
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Depressingly he is quite popular here, and probably even more popular in my home country NZ.

Whilst Deepak could acheive trading mastery in 2 days easily, by harnessing the quantum energy fields etc etc, the estimated 22 million he makes a year by bilking the gullible probably means he doesn't have to.


I love this thread, there is nothing that is really off-topic.

 
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I love this thread, there is nothing that is really off-topic.

Except that it is in the Trading Journals section, and no trades are being discussed.

I think this needs to be moved to Off-topic section.

Mike

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Fat Tails View Post
I love this thread, there is nothing that is really off-topic.

My sentiments exactly!


Big Mike View Post
Except that it is in the Trading Journals section, and no trades are being discussed.

I think this needs to be moved to Off-topic section.

Mike

I placed it in the Elite section to limit the number of views. It was my intention to write a short journal to satisfy some PM requests. It started out well, but then it morphed into the chaos that is my mind...

After reviewing the stats, it seems that "Off-Topic" is even less read than the thread's current location -- thus I would be OK with you moving it.

This is a thread for (actual) traders that want to alleviate some of their madness, but I don't want it to degrade into silliness. Hopefully it can withstand the inhabitants of "General Population"...

That being said, there are some trading words of wisdom scattered throughout it, but most probably aren't thinking abstractly enough. I guess my problem is that I see trading concepts everywhere, and my trading has improved the most by pursuing (seemingly) unrelated interests. Either that or I am more insane than I previously thought...

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It can be moved to The Elite Circle main forum if you want to keep it Elite vs off-topic. Let me know.

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Does this mean that I can increase my IQ by buying stocks?

Smarter people own shares, study finds

Smarter people own shares, study finds

January 19, 2012 - 1:37PM

Advertisement
The smarter you are, the more stock you probably own, according to researchers who say they found a direct link between IQ and equity market participation.

Intelligence, as measured by tests given to 158,044 Finnish soldiers over 19 years, outweighed income in determining whether someone owns shares and how many companies he invests in. Among draftees scoring highest on the exams, the rate of ownership later in life was 21 percentage points above those who tested lowest, researchers found. The study, published in last month's Journal of Finance, ignored bonds and other investments.

Economists have debated for decades what they call the participation puzzle, trying to explain why more people don't take advantage of the higher returns stocks have historically paid on savings. As few as 51 per cent of American households own them, a 2009 study by the Federal Reserve found. Individual investors have pulled record cash out of US equity mutual funds in the last five years as shares suffered the worst bear market since the 1930s.

"It's what we see anecdotally: higher-IQ investors tend to be more willing to commit financial resources, to put skin in the game," said Jason Hsu, chief investment officer of Newport Beach, California-based Research Affiliates LLC. "You can generalize a whole literature on this. It seems to suggest that whatever attributes are driving people to not participate in the stock market are related to the cost of processing financial information."

'So Strong'

While intelligence influenced things that might naturally increase equity ownership such as wealth and income, the authors said IQ determined who owned the most stocks within those categories as well. Among the 10 per cent of individuals with the highest salary, "IQ significantly predicts participation" in the stock market, they wrote. For example, people in the highest-income ranking who scored lowest on the test had a rate of equity market participation that was 15.7 percentage points lower than those with the highest IQ.

"If you look at the significance of IQ related to other factors like income or wealth, certainly it plays a very large role," Keloharju, a finance professor at Aalto, said in a phone interview. "It's very difficult to get around that problem, but the results are so strong here. We are playing with lots of different controls and lots of different specifications, and all the time things work really well."

Financial Education

Hsu of Research Affiliates said an explanation for why draftees with lower test scores owned less stock is that they found it harder and more expensive to receive financial education. Getting people information on investing at a younger age may help limit the disparity, he said.

"The costs to achieve that are certainly higher if someone isn't providing that at an earlier stage in one's education," said Hsu. "If we could provide advice, or provide education, to help reduce the cost of acquiring financial knowledge, that would seem like a good thing."

The paper is part of a broader debate about the role individual characteristics such as affluence and education play in investor actions. In the 1980s, so-called behavioral economists broke away from theorists such as Sharpe, who tended to think of all investors as rational.

Greg Davies, head of behavioral finance at Barclays Wealth in London, said his team tries to gauge clients' risk tolerance with personality profiles and investment strategies that appeal to "emotional needs."

Implications

"As advisers, of course, we see our role in overcoming the irrational, emotional, inaccurate elements on behalf of our clients," said Davies. "But the implications of this for the mass markets are much greater."

Markowitz said the argument that intelligence and personality sometimes trump rationality in guiding investors has little bearing on his work. His theory comes down to the view that anyone hoping to get the highest payout at the lowest risk should broaden their asset ownership.

"It's advice for the individual investor," Markowitz, 84, said in a telephone interview. "I am delighted to learn the more intelligent a person is, the more likely they are to act in the spirit of what I wrote."

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@Big Mike Please move this thread to Off-Topic

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This is so cool. Who wants to help me design my private jet?

Stanford software lets aero-engineering students focus on aircraft design instead of computer code

Stanford Report, January 24, 2012
Stanford software allows aero-engineering students to focus on aircraft design instead of computer code
Stanford University Unstructured (SU2) is an open-source software package that gives advanced engineering students a crucial leg up on the time-consuming process of writing their own code to optimize aerospace designs – offering for free an ability that is otherwise available only in expensive commercial applications.

Courtesy of Stanford Aerospace Design Laboratory
Image generated by SU2 showing air pressure on the structure of a commercial airliner in flight.

BY ANDREW MYERS

Each fall at technical universities across the world, a new crop of aeronautical and astronautical engineering graduate students settle in for the work that will consume them for the next several years. For many, their first experience in these early months is not with titanium or aluminum or advanced carbon-fiber materials that are the stuff of airplanes, but with computer code.

Thanks to a team of engineers in the Aerospace Design Lab at Stanford University, however, those days of coding may soon go the way of the biplane. At a recent demonstration, the Stanford team debuted "Stanford University Unstructured" (SU2), an open-source application that models the effects of fluids moving over aerodynamic surfaces such as fuselages, hulls, propellers, rotors, wings, rockets and re-entry vehicles.

Dubbed SU2 for short, the application incorporates everything engineers need to perform a complete design loop for optimizing the shapes of aerospace systems. While commercial programs offering similar capabilities are available, they can be prohibitively expensive. SU2, on the other hand, can be downloaded for free from the lab's website.

In engineering circles, the discipline is known as computational fluid dynamics, or CFD. Creating custom software applications to accurately model the interactions of an object in flight can take months, even years, to write and perfect. And yet, when the student graduates, the software is often forgotten.

"These are incredibly complex calculations involving innumerable variables," said Tom Taylor, a doctoral candidate who studies the dynamics of fluid flows beyond the sound barrier. "Essentially, every student has to create their own code for their specific designs, even though the equations at the core are virtually identical."

Brainchild
SU2 is the product of a team led by research associate Francisco Palacios, in the Aerospace Design Lab, who works on complex simulations of the propulsion systems in hypersonic vehicles.

Palacios witnessed all the coding the students around him were doing and, realizing that much of it was built upon a common foundation, decided to combine their work. Palacios, together with lab director Juan Alonso, then led a team of multi-disciplinary engineers in compiling, debugging and documenting the application that became SU2.

"The commercially available software is out of reach for most students," said Palacios, "and does not allow for modifications to the source code that are needed for doctoral-level research. It occurred to us that all this time and effort could be combined and packaged to allow students to focus more on their research problems and less on writing code."

Dynamic applications
Fluid dynamics applies to any three-dimensional structure moving through a medium, including air, water, chemicals and even blood.

"People can use this for everything from rockets to the design of more efficient wind turbines, and even boats, racecars and more," said PhD candidate Sean Copeland, who specializes in re-entry of space vehicles.

"Just plug in the geometry of your plane or wing or rotor, and tell the program to increase lift or reduce drag, for instance," said Tom Economon, a doctoral student working on efficient and quiet engine design. "SU2 goes to work, optimizing the shape for you in an automated way, showing you exactly where to alter your designs for maximum effect."

"I often work on modeling plasmas," said PhD candidate Amrita Lonkar, who studies flow control over wind turbines. "It was really easy – so easy – to modify the program for my research. For me, it reduced about a year's worth of work to just four months."

Open source, open possibilities
SU2 is a freely customizable software package. In true open-source fashion, developers, designers and engineers are encouraged to make the software their own, customizing the application to fit their needs.

"We welcome corrections, additions and improvements to our application," said Palacios. "They help everyone."

Of all SU2's many virtues, however, the most promising is perhaps its documentation, including a quick-start guide and in-depth tutorials. Absent or inadequate documentation is a problem that plagues many scientific computer codes.

"These materials are exhaustive and continually updated," said Taylor. "Students can hit the ground running."

Like the source code, the documentation and training are available via the website, which also includes a public forum where users and developers can seek advice and post support questions to a growing SU2 community.

"We are proud of SU2. We hope that students will use it to focus not on coding, but on their research creating better aerodynamic designs," said Palacios. "This is, after all, the real reason they came to school."

The Stanford Aerospace Design Lab is led by associate professor Juan J. Alonso and assistant professor (consulting) Karthik Duraisamy. Research associate Michael Colonno, post-doctoral researcher Jason Hicken and doctoral candidate Alejandro Campos also contributed to SU2.

Andrew Myers is associate director of communications at the School of Engineering.

Media Contact
Andrew Myers, School of Engineering: (650) 736-2245, admyers@stanford.edu

Dan Stober, Stanford News Service: (650) 721-6965, dstober@stanford.edu

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Thread Moved


Moved to Off-Topic



When creating a new thread, note which subforum you are in. Here is a short list of suggestions:

- Topic: Anything to do with an Elite indicator -> Subforum: The Elite Circle
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Last, any Elite Member may create more or less any of these topics in The Elite Circle at your own discretion (your support is appreciated).

This is just a short general list and doesn't cover everything. If you are unsure where to create your new thread, just create it in Traders Hideout and a moderator will move it if necessary.

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And something like this would be the likely result.


How to Kill Yourself in a Homebuilt Airplane


That is the reason that I love trading. No risk of killing myself, just the risk of depleting my account....

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Fat Tails View Post
And something like this would be the likely result.


How to Kill Yourself in a Homebuilt Airplane


That is the reason that I love trading. No risk of killing myself, just the risk of depleting my account....

Thanks for the vote of confidence!

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There is deep trading wisdom to be found in this article...

The Universe in a Windowpane NOVA's Physics Blog: The Nature of Reality

The Universe in a Windowpane


Everyday things can tell us profound truths about the universe. Take, for instance, your face reflected in a windowpane. Not only does it reveal something shocking about the nature of fundamental reality, but it also sheds light—no pun intended—on why we live in an interesting universe; why, in fact, it is possible for us to be here at all.

As I write this, I am looking out of a window in central London. I can see cars parked on the street, a woman in a red coat walking by with a black poodle. But, in addition to the things outside, I can also see a faint reflection of my face in the windowpane. Though about 95% of the light that hits the glass goes right through, the remaining 5% is reflected back—which is why I can see my face.


Why does one photon pass through the glass while another is reflected? Credit: Jorn Tomter.


At the beginning of the 20th century, physicists discovered that light of a given color is a stream of tiny machine-gun bullets called “photons,” all identical. The trouble was this discovery made it very difficult to understand how you can see a reflection of your face in a window. After all, if all photons are identical, surely they should be affected identically by a window. Either they should all go through the window, or they should all bounce back.
The only way to explain why 95% go through and 5% are turned around is to accept that photons have a 95% chance of going through and a 5% chance of being turned back. Notice that word chance. It means that, if you could miniaturize yourself and ride on a photon flying towards a window pane, you could not know for sure whether the photon would be reflected or transmitted. The outcome is fundamentally unpredictable.

And what is true for photons is true also for all the other occupants of the submicroscopic world: atoms, electrons, neutrinos, the lot. At its deepest level, the universe is fundamentally random.

Arguably, this is the single most shocking discovery in the history of science. In fact, it so unnerved Einstein that famously he declared, “God does not play dice with the universe.” But it turns out that not only was Einstein wrong, he was spectacularly, dramatically, wrong. To understand why, though, we have to go back to the beginning of the universe.

Today, the universe is expanding. Its constituent galaxies, including our Milky Way, are flying apart like pieces of cosmic shrapnel in the aftermath of the big bang. We can imagine this expansion running backwards like a movie in reverse: The universe shrinks ever smaller, down to the big bang.

But the universe is “quantum.” This means is that it is not only fundamentally unpredictable but grainy. Everything—matter, energy, even space—comes in tiny indivisible grains, or “quanta,” that cannot be cut any smaller. If we had some kind of supermicroscope, we would see space resolve into these tiny grains. Think of space as a chessboard, with squares that cannot be made any smaller.

As we imagine running the movie of our universe backwards, then, we will see the chessboard getting smaller but the squares themselves will not; they cannot shrink. As we rewind toward the big bang, there will be fewer and fewer of them.


Turn the clocks back to the big bang. Photograph by Robert Broadie via the Wikimedia Commons.


In fact, physicists believe that at the beginning of the universe, at the start of an epoch known as “inflation,” there may have been only one thousand chess squares of space. In other words, there were only 1,000 locations which could either contain energy or no energy. In the language of computers, such a configuration can specified by a mere 1,000 “bits” of information.
Here in my pocket I have a key ring with 1 gigabit of flash memory. (You’ll have to take my word for it!) One gigabit is 1,000 million bits. In other words, on my key ring, I could store the information for a million universes! In “Song of Myself,” Walt Whitman wrote: “And I say to any man or woman, Let your soul stand cool and composed before a million universes.” He did not mean it literally, but, with my 1 GB flash memory, I can stand cool and composed before a million universes.

Fast-forward to today. In order to describe the universe you would need an awful lot more than 1,000 bits. For instance, you would need to specify the location and type of every atom, the energy state of every electron in every atom. (Actually, most of the information in the universe is in the “afterglow” of the big bang fireball, which is still around us—but that’s another story!) Instead of 1,000 bits to describe the universe, you would need 1089 bits—that’s one followed by 89 zeroes bits!

So the big question is, if the universe started out with pretty much no information, where did all the information—the complexity of today’s universe—come from? This is where your reflection in the windowpane comes in.

Information is essentially the same as randomness. If I have number that is one repeated a billion times, it is clearly non-random. It also contains hardly any information. After all, I have told you about it in a mere handful of words. But if I have a number that is a billion digits, all of which are unrelated to each other, that number contains a lot of information. After all, to tell you the number, I have no choice but to tell you each and every one of the billion digits.

So here is the answer to the conundrum of the universe’s information—why it is complex, why it is interesting. We owe everything to countless random quantum events since the big bang. Every time an atom had the choice to spit out a photon or not spit out a photon, the outcome was random, and information was injected into the universe. Every time a photon flying through space had the choice to go left or go right past an obstacle, the outcome was random, and information was injected into the universe.

This brings us back to Einstein and his famous statement that God does not play dice. Einstein could not have been more wrong. Not only does God play dice with the universe but, if he did not, there would be no universe—at least not one of the complexity needed to give rise to humans like us, creatures who ponder our reflections, contemplate the nature of the universe, and read and write blogs about it.

We live in a random reality. We live in a universe entirely generated by the quantum roll of a dice. And all this you can deduce from your reflection in a windowpane.

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So, am I riding a photon and hoping that I am the 5% that gets reflected back? haha...

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bluemele View Post
So, am I riding a photon and hoping that I am the 5% that gets reflected back? haha...


You cannot ride a photon but a cannon ball, and you may get deflected not reflected ....


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Fat Tails View Post
You cannot ride a photon but a cannon ball, and you may get deflected not reflected ....


@Fat Tails,

How did you superimpose my face onto that picture?

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