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Scattered thoughts...
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Created: by Lornz Attachments:26

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Scattered thoughts...

  #31 (permalink)
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He recently had hip surgery, so no; I'm waiting for him to recuperate first. He is supposed to get back to me when ready. More to come.


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zer0 - did you ever have that meeting with Peter?


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  #32 (permalink)
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I will get this journal done by the end of the year, before I will (more or less) retire my online presence.

One of the most beautiful sensory experiences I know, are the Symphony of Science videos. There was a new one posted yesterday. Be sure to check out An Ode to the Brain and The Quantum World, along with other masterpieces.


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  #33 (permalink)
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Alright, back to business.

I feel this thread got somewhat derailed, but I guess that is to be expected with a title like that. The whole point of introducing Market Profile was to present the Auction Market Theory. I think that is a good place for discretionary traders to start....

I also think that it is important to learn about market structure, and I would argue that this is one of the first books one should read:
Amazon.com: Trading and Exchanges: Market Microstructure for Practitioners (9780195144703): Larry Harris: Books

Then follow up with this:
Amazon.com: Algorithmic Trading and DMA: An introduction to direct access trading strategies (9780956399205): Barry Johnson: Books


I have been doing some research on functional programming lately, thus I naturally checked out Jane Street's website. I think the first 20 minutes (or so) is well worth watching for everybody:



I would also like to link to their curriculum for new traders:
Jane Street » Curriculum

Game theory and the Kelly criterion is mentioned, both of which I think is important. I have hardly seen a mention of either on this board, though. I find it strange that game theory is not discussed more frequently on trading boards, as it is a critical part of my approach. Trading is all about strategic thinking. This applies both to system development and to discretionary trading. I personally also believe philosophy is a great resource for (especially discretionary) traders, much more so than psychology.

Yale has a game theory course available for free:
Game Theory — Open Yale Courses

I will try to update this thread routinely in the following month.

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  #34 (permalink)
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Lornz View Post
Game theory and the Kelly criterion is mentioned, both of which I think is important. I have hardly seen a mention of either on this board, though. I find it strange that game theory is not discussed more frequently on trading boards, as it is a critical part of my approach. Trading is all about strategic thinking. This applies both to system development and to discretionary trading. I personally also believe philosophy is a great resource for (especially discretionary) traders, much more so than psychology.

Game theory has been discussed quite a bit, but it is buried in threads somewhere. Why not start a new thread with a easy title "Game Theory" so we can find it in the future, and start off the discussion?

I also think that traders place too much emphasis on some colored lines on their chart, and not nearly enough emphasis on probabilities and how to deal with or understand them so that you remain in control of your emotions even through a drawdown. Or even better, how to identify and react to a drawdown while also being able to identify when the method has simply stopped working (and not going into a never ending drawdown).

Maybe you would be interested in doing some futures.io (formerly BMT) webinars and talk about this subject at length, answering questions and such?

Mike

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  #35 (permalink)
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OK, OK, crap - more complicated reading and thinking... @Lornz, when are we going to get to the setups???



Alright, let's talk game theory - but if we're going to do that, we should also talk about Theory of Mind and the Art of War.

"All warfare is based on deception. Hence, when able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must seem inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near."
... Sun Tzu

and


“Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win”
― Sun Tzu

Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty. - Frank Herbert
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  #36 (permalink)
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@Big Mike | I agree with that. People seem to not sufficiently connect the charts and indicators to the underlying structure of the market. Their chart becomes a separate entity, when in fact it is just a way of filtering information. I will discuss this more in depth later.

I appreciate the offer of doing webinars, but I will respectfully decline. At least for now. My goal is to finish the journal before the end of next month, and I don't want to take on too much. I am also self-conscious about my horrendous Norwegian accent...

@Surly | Just to weed out the majority of readers: I will not be discussing any set-ups. This thread will mostly be about the resources one can use to become a successful trader, coupled with quasi-philosophical ramblings about trading in general. Discretionary trading is not about set-ups anyway, it is about reading the market(s)...

I like The Art of War, there is a lot of wisdom to be derived from that book. A lot of people see aggression as a strength, but it is only really useful in the act of execution. In fact, it can be a significant weakness when one is devising a strategy. Trading is supposed to be a blissful endeavor, I would actually claim that it should act as a stress reliever. There is, of course, a vast difference between scalping, methodical/automatic, and (varying degrees of) discretionary trading. I will discuss this in greater detail in future posts.

Please share your wisdom about Theory of Mind. I "suffer" from Asperger's, thus my ToM is not a good benchmark. I have gotten significantly better at it, though. I would claim that my post history is a testament to that. Or maybe I am still as arrogant, but I have simply become sufficiently deluded to not notice it anymore....

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  #37 (permalink)
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theory of mind

Well, to begin, my comment about setups was purely sarcastic - I know the concept that a setup could be easily communicated and result in profits is anathema to the way you think about trading. So that was a (failed) joke.

Theory of mind is just the ability to "put yourself in someone else's shoes" or to think about what someone else might think or how they might feel in a given circumstance. I understand that this is difficult for someone with Asperger's - I assume because it is difficult to see the forest for the trees and also because it is difficult to process (and thus empathize with) emotional information.

In trading, one uses theory of mind to understand things like at what point the longs will start to really feel the pain and puke out their contracts and finally allow the market to then begin to climb. It also allows one to consider questions like "what are traders waiting for here?" or "what will the longs think here if this move falters - will they be confident and hold or will they jump out at the first sign of weakness". Questions like these allow us to better understand or "model" the battle going on in the marketplace - if we can accurately model the way market participants are making decisions and what will cause them to decide one thing or the other we can understand the odds or probabilities of various outcomes better.

Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty. - Frank Herbert
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  #38 (permalink)
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I was fully aware that it was an attempt at humor. I almost laughed sufficiently to feel compelled to write it out!

I also know perfectly well what ToM is, but I just don't fully relate to the world in that way. It needs to be said that I have a very light degree of Asperger's, and you couldn't tell by looking at me. In fact, I only found out last year.
I can, more or less, chose whether I fit the criteria or not. The main difference is that ToM is an intellectual task for me, while others have it intuitively. What you call ToM, I call strategic thinking. The fact that I am more emotional detached than most, is just positive as far as trading goes. It seems people often let their emotions get in the way of logical thinking. It also means that I often find social relations to be meaningless and/or exhausting. Just in case anyone thought I was trying to portray myself in a too positive manner.

I only bring this up because I feel it is relevant to the thread. I have never understood other's struggle with discipline or psychology, but that is probably due to my "defect".

 
  #39 (permalink)
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A little glimpse of beauty....




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  #40 (permalink)
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The Trillion Dollar Bet


Time to take break from all the reading and watch a few interesting documentaries:



I think these have been posted before somewhere, but I couldn't immediately find the thread.


Don't let the Dutch intro scare you off, it's almost all English from there and completely watchable.

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