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Scattered thoughts...

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  #101 (permalink)
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bluemele View Post
So, am I riding a photon and hoping that I am the 5% that gets reflected back? haha...

When you're really proficient you can just catch another one going the other way....

The Cannonball Ride Scene from The Adventures of Baron Munchausen Movie (1988) | MOVIECLIPS

 
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  #102 (permalink)
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was anyone able to get handouts from the Steidlemayer's webinar?

 
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  #103 (permalink)
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School for quants - FT.com

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  #104 (permalink)
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Rob Reid: The $8 billion iPod | Video on TED.com

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  #105 (permalink)
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I'm really excited about this:

"A real Caltech course, not a watered-down version

Broadcast live from the lecture hall at Caltech"

Learning From Data - Online Course

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  #106 (permalink)
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Deucalion View Post
You could be honest and say, I am an INTJ and I do know more than you buffons....here are my nuggets for you peasants for today, now kneel in my hallowed presence while I retire to my cave.....

About probability, quantitative algos and inefficiency... that would fly in the face of the apparent oxymoron that markets are forever changing, yet they are the same all the time, because human behavior is unpredictable individually but not collectively.....that would very much line up with the notion that the trained and skillful discretionary trader will build a mental edge over the rest of the untrained milieu that could be practised into perpetuity......extending that statement (if you do not disagree with that premise), one could then wrap one's head around the notion that such a contrarian whose intangible edge it so far "un - fathomable" and unquantifiable to binary logic (barring a break through in AI) could implement a high "chance" trade.

I mostly agree with your post, but I would like to differ between HFT and other forms of trading. Market making and arbitrage works very well with binary logic, as long as one is fast enough. I definitely think that the human mind is superior to automated systems in several areas. I'm especially thinking of analysis at the macro level. I find it best to let machines do the information gathering and filtering, but still use discretion to make the final decision. This is where the use of AI's is really interesting. If Kurzweil is right about the Singularity, I guess that I can upload my mind to a machine in a couple of decades. That would be something...

Your post made me think of these:
Flocking Behaviour Improves Performance Of Financial Traders - Technology Review

Predicting crowd behaviour - physicsworld.com

Going against traditional trading wisdom, I have always been very interested in prediction. Predictive analytics is a very interesting field. As one can gather from my avatar, I'm quite intrigued by Chaos Theory. I've been fascinated by the work of Packard (among others), and I think these are interesting reads:

Wired 2.07: Cracking Wall Street

Black Box - Thomas A.Bass

However, I would like to add that I'm less than impressed with their gambling ventures, at least compared to what Ed Thorp did.

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  #107 (permalink)
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Lornz View Post
I mostly agree with your post, but I would like to differ between HFT and other forms of trading. Market making and arbitrage works very well with binary logic, as long as one is fast enough. I definitely think that the human mind is superior to automated systems in several areas. I'm especially thinking of analysis at the macro level. I find it best to let machines do the information gathering and filtering, but still use discretion to make the final decision. This is where the use of AI's is really interesting. If Kurzweil is right about the Singularity, I guess that I can upload my mind to a machine in a couple of decades. That would be something...

Your post made me think of these:
Flocking Behaviour Improves Performance Of Financial Traders - Technology Review

Predicting crowd behaviour - physicsworld.com

Going against traditional trading wisdom, I have always been very interested in prediction. Predictive analytics is a very interesting field. As one can gather from my avatar, I'm quite intrigued by Chaos Theory. I've been fascinated by the work of Packard (among others), and I think these are an interesting read:

Wired 2.07: Cracking Wall Street

Black Box - Thomas A.Bass

However, I would like to add that I'm less than impressed with their gambling ventures, at least compared to what Ed Thorp did.

That was wry humor about the INTJ smart - ass bit, it's a fine line isn't it. Between humility, false modesty, haughtiness and "rightfulness". How well does Rand's outspoken stand on this sit with you? I most certainly sit concur with her stand on this....and have been told many times that I cross that line between simply being truthful to being an "ass"....people have thin skin and once you confront their intellect, the issue is lost immediately as the discussion veers towards whose dick is bigger.....but go ahead, it's fun being an ass than being PC...(no doubt the presence of that on this forum is very evident to you too).......



Not well versed to say anything about singularity, but that predictive bit is very appealing to me, especially if one believes the notion that crowd behaviour follows certain fight or flight reactions in nearly all cases, it would be not extraordinary to think that at some point someone will be able to figure out a way to automate a trading system based on that fairly easy to understand premise (but hard to quantify)........which is why EW appeals to me so much. 150years of the industrial evolution, with digital breakthoughs making even faster changes possible and yet the mind behaves in predictable ways (some would argue that with more science allowing us to delegate some of decisions to machines is a very bad thing for humanity - a point I tend to view as valuable. One only need visit a local Starbucks to see how validated we feel about making pointless decisions)

Theoretically if we can separate the individual to act on his own (isolated from crowd participation altogether), human kind would really progress (with only logical influences and little of no mob mentality)...... Behaviors, responses would all change on their own with more intellectual influences......kind of like the Matrix or the Surrogates (but what a dry world would that be)......no wonder Geeks and nerdy types are such socail misfits....living in their own minds...detached from reality....

So suffice to say, that despite our growing brains.....we continue to behave like cockroaches in groups and societies....(the cockroaches did survive pretty much everything though....)

 
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  #108 (permalink)
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Flocking behavior / Physics in Crowd Behaviour - it's an thoughtful look at group behviour, but that's group behaviour nevertheless (albeit a smart well informed mob...but a mob nevertheless.....even though the traders are trading separate instruments and the article suggests they are operating as distinct entities....that is very much group think (sophisticated...subtle and even unconscious in nature but very much influenced by the same guidelines.....)

Go to a party...people talk about generic BS...innocent items....about the weekend, about pets, weather....then talk about something polarzing and watch how the crowd stops talking immediately..subtly but immediately.......

I was in a group a couple of nights ago here in Brisbane....3 Americans, 4 Australians, 1 Dutch, 2 Kiwis (1 Maori and 1 Caucasian) and 1 Canadian....(all was going well ...politics...dogs....scenery..the local food joint...even politics...until the rude Canadian decided to say that Ron Paul is awesome because he is going to decriminalize pot (for effect said with dead pan seriousness..) other than the Dutch guy.. all others become immediately guarded...especially the Americans.....it was funny as shit....... group think had taken over...no one wanted to offend anyone...and went back to polite things to talk about.....

This behavior is a powerful tool in my trading....we all read the same stuff, watch the same issues on telly....If you did a poll on futures.io (formerly BMT) of how many thought, for example, if Iran was a rogue country...a predictable answer would be a high percentage....I would argue that is perfect example of mob reaction....watch how offended people get now and post a gazliion links from media to prove how wrong I am

I was told that ES and CL make moves at certain RTH times....957AM for example. And sure enough, more times than not, it did..and some people base their trades on it. And I thought, I don't give a shit if that is true or not unless I know why that is the case (maybe its flocking behviour)...but I cannot trade that unless I know the logic behind it....

The 2nd article using Physics to analyse crowd behavior is pretty reductionist though....each function (human) in that crowd may or may not be mutually independent....it would neither be a truly multi-variate distribution nor a uniform distribution but somewhere in-between...

 
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  #109 (permalink)
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Between the Wired article and the Bass' piece - a feeling of deja vu as Doyne talks about essentially heuristic and Bayesian behavior (in my opinion). More of the latter, as those Bayesian methods are much more all encompassing to study models that cannot accurately be quantifed and studied.

I am a great fan of this approach, not only as Elliot wave thinking essentially lines up with this, but also because Dr Brett has done several pieces of work on Bayesian probablity in trading and its application to markets that are seemingly chaotic and not quite random.

To me (and quoting that fantastic one liner from David Weinberger at the Prediction Company) - "This is a religious issue, either you believe there is structure in the markets or you don’t."

Such elegance, no need to be LTCM, just study one repeating pattern in seeming chaos...and see if you can predict it happening the next time... by the signature that precedes it and follows it"

One tiny sequence, is all they need. Their edge isn't great.....5% over the market but that's' enough.....and the fact that it was born out of the way the human brain can pick out patterns unconsciously. Experienced discretionary traders have a much greater edge over the market than that metric. Without a doubt though, their algo (now UBS' algo) would have sharpened since then.

And that's the beauty of it, they acknowledge the human brain can unconsciously and powerfully keep evolving to discern these patterns as markets change and shift...the computer, once it learns that behavior can do it faster and better than the brain.....but only because there is a human to model it on.....(so far)

Both ways work, I cannot fathom why people argue that the human mind is the machine that other machines are trying to emulate......and the brain is moving target, it can adapt faster than a machine....the machine maybe faster and powerful.....once it gets there......

The stuff on the casino experiment and the evolution of that sub group of eudaemons (tom bass) is fairly basic and a lot less interesting than Farmer and his work...

 
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  #110 (permalink)
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First of all: Motherfucker! I wrote a long reply, but then Chrome crashed. Hopefully my extreme amount of anger won't pollute this second attempt.

Second, I apologize for the lateness of my reply. I have too much going on these days, and, also partly because of my ADD, I haven't managed to answer you until now.

Please don't perceive it as a reflection of my thoughts about your thoughts about my thoughts.


Deucalion View Post
That was wry humor about the INTJ smart - ass bit, it's a fine line isn't it. Between humility, false modesty, haughtiness and "rightfulness". How well does Rand's outspoken stand on this sit with you? I most certainly sit concur with her stand on this....and have been told many times that I cross that line between simply being truthful to being an "ass"....people have thin skin and once you confront their intellect, the issue is lost immediately as the discussion veers towards whose dick is bigger.....but go ahead, it's fun being an ass than being PC...(no doubt the presence of that on this forum is very evident to you too).......

Not well versed to say anything about singularity, but that predictive bit is very appealing to me, especially if one believes the notion that crowd behaviour follows certain fight or flight reactions in nearly all cases, it would be not extraordinary to think that at some point someone will be able to figure out a way to automate a trading system based on that fairly easy to understand premise (but hard to quantify)........which is why EW appeals to me so much. 150years of the industrial evolution, with digital breakthoughs making even faster changes possible and yet the mind behaves in predictable ways (some would argue that with more science allowing us to delegate some of decisions to machines is a very bad thing for humanity - a point I tend to view as valuable. One only need visit a local Starbucks to see how validated we feel about making pointless decisions)

Theoretically if we can separate the individual to act on his own (isolated from crowd participation altogether), human kind would really progress (with only logical influences and little of no mob mentality)...... Behaviors, responses would all change on their own with more intellectual influences......kind of like the Matrix or the Surrogates (but what a dry world would that be)......no wonder Geeks and nerdy types are such socail misfits....living in their own minds...detached from reality....

So suffice to say, that despite our growing brains.....we continue to behave like cockroaches in groups and societies....(the cockroaches did survive pretty much everything though....)

I'm also an arrogant asshole, there is no denying that. However, I've become a little better (or perhaps worse from your point of view ) during the past few years. I must be getting old... There is nothing more fun than polemics, though, and I can't imagine letting too many opportunities slip away.

To be perfectly honest, I've never liked Rand. I've always referred to her as the philosopher for the non-philosopher. I started reading Nietzsche in high school, and I didn't come across Rand until years later. I could only see a bastardization of his ideas, yet she claims to be his superior. But, I digress...

I watched the documentary "Transcendent Man" a little while back, and I was quite fascinated. I like stuff like that. Jason Silva is also coming out with a documentary soon, and I'm a fan of his philosopical ramblings.

By the way, I share your thoughts on humanity. We are cockroaches, and the world pays for it everyday.


Deucalion View Post
Flocking behavior / Physics in Crowd Behaviour - it's an thoughtful look at group behviour, but that's group behaviour nevertheless (albeit a smart well informed mob...but a mob nevertheless.....even though the traders are trading separate instruments and the article suggests they are operating as distinct entities....that is very much group think (sophisticated...subtle and even unconscious in nature but very much influenced by the same guidelines.....)

Go to a party...people talk about generic BS...innocent items....about the weekend, about pets, weather....then talk about something polarzing and watch how the crowd stops talking immediately..subtly but immediately.......

I was in a group a couple of nights ago here in Brisbane....3 Americans, 4 Australians, 1 Dutch, 2 Kiwis (1 Maori and 1 Caucasian) and 1 Canadian....(all was going well ...politics...dogs....scenery..the local food joint...even politics...until the rude Canadian decided to say that Ron Paul is awesome because he is going to decriminalize pot (for effect said with dead pan seriousness..) other than the Dutch guy.. all others become immediately guarded...especially the Americans.....it was funny as shit....... group think had taken over...no one wanted to offend anyone...and went back to polite things to talk about.....

This behavior is a powerful tool in my trading....we all read the same stuff, watch the same issues on telly....If you did a poll on futures.io (formerly BMT) of how many thought, for example, if Iran was a rogue country...a predictable answer would be a high percentage....I would argue that is perfect example of mob reaction....watch how offended people get now and post a gazliion links from media to prove how wrong I am

I was told that ES and CL make moves at certain RTH times....957AM for example. And sure enough, more times than not, it did..and some people base their trades on it. And I thought, I don't give a shit if that is true or not unless I know why that is the case (maybe its flocking behviour)...but I cannot trade that unless I know the logic behind it....

The 2nd article using Physics to analyse crowd behavior is pretty reductionist though....each function (human) in that crowd may or may not be mutually independent....it would neither be a truly multi-variate distribution nor a uniform distribution but somewhere in-between...

Brisbane? Are you living down under? I lived in Brisbane a few years back, and I'm currently contemplating moving back to Australia. It would be nice to make some new friends. I'm more likely to settle in Sydney, though.

You essentially summed up why I despise the human race. I've never been comfortable in groups, as I tend to say what I mean and try to reason as objectively as possible. Nietzsche said: "Insanity in individuals is something rare - but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule".

I find the apparent spinelessness of most human beings to be appalling. That is why the world is the way it is; too few have the guts to stand up for themselves. This results in people with psychopathic tendencies being able to trample on the hopeless masses with ease. It is a testiment to the inherent servility, or perhaps rather futility, of our kind.

To take an everyday example: Most people bitch about their boss behind his/her back, but few deliver the message directly to the recipient. I guess that's why quite a few of my teachers hated me, and I had no choice but to start trading on my own rather than pursue a professional career. What appears to be character flaws in "real" life are actually advantageous when it comes to trading.


Deucalion View Post
Between the Wired article and the Bass' piece - a feeling of deja vu as Doyne talks about essentially heuristic and Bayesian behavior (in my opinion). More of the latter, as those Bayesian methods are much more all encompassing to study models that cannot accurately be quantifed and studied.

I am a great fan of this approach, not only as Elliot wave thinking essentially lines up with this, but also because Dr Brett has done several pieces of work on Bayesian probablity in trading and its application to markets that are seemingly chaotic and not quite random.

To me (and quoting that fantastic one liner from David Weinberger at the Prediction Company) - "This is a religious issue, either you believe there is structure in the markets or you don’t."

Such elegance, no need to be LTCM, just study one repeating pattern in seeming chaos...and see if you can predict it happening the next time... by the signature that precedes it and follows it"

One tiny sequence, is all they need. Their edge isn't great.....5% over the market but that's' enough.....and the fact that it was born out of the way the human brain can pick out patterns unconsciously. Experienced discretionary traders have a much greater edge over the market than that metric. Without a doubt though, their algo (now UBS' algo) would have sharpened since then.

And that's the beauty of it, they acknowledge the human brain can unconsciously and powerfully keep evolving to discern these patterns as markets change and shift...the computer, once it learns that behavior can do it faster and better than the brain.....but only because there is a human to model it on.....(so far)

Both ways work, I cannot fathom why people argue that the human mind is the machine that other machines are trying to emulate......and the brain is moving target, it can adapt faster than a machine....the machine maybe faster and powerful.....once it gets there......

The stuff on the casino experiment and the evolution of that sub group of eudaemons (tom bass) is fairly basic and a lot less interesting than Farmer and his work...

Yes, as is evident by my avatar, I am a "fan" of my (almost) brother-by-name Lorenz.

That is a good quote, and it sums up my thoughts exactly. My trading is based on the structure of volatility, I guess would be fair to say. I've always been a reductionist, and try to "make things as simple as possible, but not simpler".

You also touched upon my view of all of this, namely that a successful discretionary trader has an advantageous starting point. Often there is little overlap between discretionary and algorithmic traders, but it has been my goal to combine the two. Regardless of the outcome, it is a lot of fun. I've always enjoyed doing research more than the actually trading. I should have started on this much sooner, though. I've made quite a decent living off being a discretionary trader, and I haven't managed to foster enough "courage" to learn to program sufficiently until recently. I think I have formulated some good ideas, but there is no way to tell yet. I am far too paranoid to talk much about them, though.

While I haven't read it in a couple of years, Steenbarger's blog definitely had some interesting material in it. Nothing revolutionary, but at least in the vicinity of valid concepts. Most of this is common sense, but traders seem to often get lost in a haze of "pretty" indicators.

I don't use EW in my trading, but I studied it briefly years ago. I went through a wave phase, delving into the works of Kondratiev, Hurst and Armstrong. It's hard not to like the concept of phi. Trading is all about exploiting the gyrations, though. That much I agree with.

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  #111 (permalink)
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An intro to Jason Silva:


Some, at least in my opinion, very cool pieces of art. But, seeing as most didn't like An Ode to the Brain, I have my doubts about how they will be perceived.







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  #112 (permalink)
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Lornz View Post
.....Second, I apologize for the lateness of my reply. I have too much going on these days, and, also partly because of my ADD, I haven't managed to answer you until now. Please don't perceive it as a reflection of my thoughts about your thoughts about my thoughts.


To be perfectly honest, I've never liked Rand. I've always referred to her as the philosopher for the non-philosopher. I started reading Nietzsche in high school, and I didn't come across Rand until years later. I could only see a bastardization of his ideas, yet she claims to be his superior. But, I digress...I watched the documentary "Transcendent Man" a little while back, and I was quite fascinated. I like stuff like that. Jason Silva is also coming out with a documentary soon, and I'm a fan of his philosopical ramblings.



Brisbane? Are you living down under? I lived in Brisbane a few years back, and I'm currently contemplating moving back to Australia. It would be nice to make some new friends. I'm more likely to settle in Sydney, though.


I don't use EW in my trading, but I studied it briefly years ago. I went through a wave phase, delving into the works of Kondratiev, Hurst and Armstrong. It's hard not to like the concept of phi. Trading is all about exploiting the gyrations, though. That much I agree with.

LOL...no worries...as the Aussies say.

I am pretty sure I would have the same point of view as you about Rand, if I had read Nietzsche, alas I am indeed much more ignorant than I care to admit.

Live in brisbane - no, on vacation for a month, or two, or three....

Having lived in 6 countries, I find the Canadian Rockies pretty good, only living in northern Europe would interest me now (although that is fast dying as Europe is turning very much into a nanny state/region)

Silva is neat - thanks for that. I find it hard to take anyone under 40 seriously though. Especially when he talks that fast, with so much material like a verbal waterfall, with thoughts as diverse and rapid as the attention span of a young person today.

Not just that, but recently a fellow trader introduced (or re-introduced) me to an old master. So immediately I compare Silva (unfairly I know) to Sowell, and given Sowell's credibility and his similarities to Friedman thinking, I tend to enjoy this much more.

It's apples and oranges, comparing economists to philosophers, but the thinking is the same, the thought processes are similar, and economists (good ones anyway) are keen students of socioeconomics and history, bordering on a little bit of simpleton philosophy which I get, most of the time

EW stuck to me for one reason - accidentally I had read Richard Schabaker before I read Robert Rhea, John Murphy, etc etc......then EW made sense. Elliot did not come up with a new theory, his interpretation was an extension of Dow's original classical TA observations, influenced by Schabaker's work. Schabkaer is arguably the father of waves or cycles, Elliot ran much further with them. Given the inter-connectivity of EW with Fibonacci sequencing, the cross linking of the golden ratio with everything....it was not hard for me to give credence to EW, as this brought (in my mind) - things from Dow to Schabaker to Elliot to the golden ratio all together in one approach. As usual, this "works for me"....as yours does for you. But, I am still a "J" whereas, you have mellowed into an "X", so I am "righter" ??

 
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  #113 (permalink)
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Well, I guess philosophy is something I feel strongly about. I had decided on getting a degree in it, but then I found trading. I delved into existentialism as a teenager, but then I moved on to logical positivism. That helped me regain my love for mathematics...

I've lived quite a few places myself, I spent 3 years going around the world twice. I really liked Australia, but I think Hawaii was my favorite. It's too bad it's so difficult to get a US visa. I would love to divide my time between Hawaii and California. Any intelligent, beautiful women reading this thread? Please propose via PM. I'm (relatively) young, handsome and frighteningly intelligent. I like long walks, stimulating conversations and playing the ukulele.

I get what you're saying about Silva, but I quite like it. His way of combining interesting thoughts with beautiful imagery and sound is high art in my book. However, I generally prefer my intellectual candy to be more slow-paced. I generally prefer older things. I watched this earlier today: Artificial Intelligence : Free Download & Streaming : Internet Archive .

I like the name of that blog! I actually came across Sowell last year (or was it two years ago) when I was doing some research on something else. I especially remember a debate from the 70s(?) about welfare, in which Friedman also participated. Friedman surely was an interesting creature.
Speaking of the "War on Drugs": I really admire Friedman's stance: . The Global Commission on Drugs supports his view (https://www.globalcommissionondrugs.org/wp-content/themes/gcdp_v1/pdf/Global_Commission_Report_English.pdf). In the last few months we've had some discussion about legalizing marijuana here in Norway. Several of the youth parties are in favor, but the discussion has not been very productive so far. It's sad to see the replies by those opposed; it's usually non-factual emotional drivel. I don't smoke, or plan to, but I think it's stupid to devote excessive resources to a "war" that isn't winnable. It also diverts resources which could have been better spent on fighting hard crime.

I have an affinity for old TA "scriptures": Schabacker, Dow, Hamilton, Wyckoff, Watts, MacKay, de Villiers, Selden, "Guyon" and Edwards & Magee. However, I also enjoy Graham and Dodd, and Loeb.

Then you have guys like Baruch and Livermore. Both excellent market practitioners, and in a class of their own.

Paul Tudor Jones has spoken about EW a few times, he even mentions it in his documentary. In the foreword to Fisher's "The Logical Trader", he states that Prechter's book is one of five books he requires new traders to read. I actually watched Precther's documentary a few months ago History’s Hidden Engine . I fully agree that society is cyclical, but I'm not fully understanding the predictive value of EW.

I think you are the only one who has been negative to my drifting toward "X", but I see your point. I've come so far that I will openly admit that you are "righter", but I'll think the opposite quietly. We'll see how long I manage to keep the "J" at bay...

By the way, I want to clarify that my hatred for the world is based on the belief that we, as conscious creatures, could have done so much better.

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Lornz View Post
Well, I guess philosophy is something I feel strongly about. I had decided on getting a degree in it, but then I found trading. I delved into existentialism as a teenager, but then I moved on to logical positivism. That helped me regain my love for mathematics...

I've lived quite a few places myself, I spent 3 years going around the world twice. I really liked Australia, but I think Hawaii was my favorite. It's too bad it's so difficult to get a US visa. I would love to divide my time between Hawaii and California. Any intelligent, beautiful women reading this thread? Please propose via PM. I'm (relatively) young, handsome and frighteningly intelligent. I like long walks, stimulating conversations and playing the ukulele.

I get what you're saying about Silva, but I quite like it. His way of combining interesting thoughts with beautiful imagery and sound is high art in my book. However, I generally prefer my intellectual candy to be more slow-paced. I generally prefer older things. I watched this earlier today: Artificial Intelligence : Free Download & Streaming : Internet Archive .

I like the name of that blog! I actually came across Sowell last year (or was it two years ago) when I was doing some research on something else. I especially remember a debate from the 70s(?) about welfare, in which Friedman also participated. Friedman surely was an interesting creature.
Speaking of the "War on Drugs": I really admire Friedman's stance: . The Global Commission on Drugs supports his view (https://www.globalcommissionondrugs.org/wp-content/themes/gcdp_v1/pdf/Global_Commission_Report_English.pdf). In the last few months we've had some discussion about legalizing marijuana here in Norway. Several of the youth parties are in favor, but the discussion has not been very productive so far. It's sad to see the replies by those opposed; it's usually non-factual emotional drivel. I don't smoke, or plan to, but I think it's stupid to devote excessive resources to a "war" that isn't winnable. It also diverts resources which could have been better spent on fighting hard crime.

I have an affinity for old TA "scriptures": Schabacker, Dow, Hamilton, Wyckoff, Watts, MacKay, de Villiers, Selden, "Guyon" and Edwards & Magee. However, I also enjoy Graham and Dodd, and Loeb.

Then you have guys like Baruch and Livermore. Both excellent market practitioners, and in a class of their own.

Paul Tudor Jones has spoken about EW a few times, he even mentions it in his documentary. In the foreword to Fisher's "The Logical Trader", he states that Prechter's book is one of five books he requires new traders to read. I actually watched Precther's documentary a few months ago History’s Hidden Engine . I fully agree that society is cyclical, but I'm not fully understanding the predictive value of EW.

I think you are the only one who has been negative to my drifting toward "X", but I see your point. I've come so far that I will openly admit that you are "righter", but I'll think the opposite quietly. We'll see how long I manage to keep the "J" at bay...

By the way, I want to clarify that my hatred for the world is based on the belief that we, as conscious creatures, could have done so much better.

This thread is awesome, I can read cool shit, not get into arguments with petty minds and just talk. Watch funky videos......

BTW, thanks on the neuroplasticity book link (Schwartz & Begley) - I am sold, Didn't do anything initially, But after going over Luminosity, CogniFIT and CogMed...I ended with with IQ Mindware's program.....on their forum...there are links to interesting research on brain rehabilitation from neuro-trauma medical research that feeds into the concept of neuroplasticity - some cutting edge stuff that indicated that as neuroplasticity gains a wider audience and research dollars, specific activities can eventually be developed in the future to channel development of specific functions - sort of like specific exercises to isolate fast fibers and slow twitch fibers in muscle tissue. Just imagining and understanding that the synapses can be re-rewired is mind blowing (pun intended). Not just in the area of undoing brain damage, but allowing the brain to perform at a higher level on trading endeavors .........A "Treadstone" program to create a "Jason Bourne" of trading ...perhaps.......woot! That's also where I got a referral to Begley and Schwartz's book - should have it shortly).

Friedman / Chomsky / Rand / Sowell - same view on drugs / war / colonialism / "occupation-ism" etc etc...all the hot button topics...no one wants to touch. I got a dirty look when I wanted my licence plate to read "KAOS" or "NRKST"....the desk clerk looked at me as if I was a child molester....anarchy is a bad word apparently with the wildebeest...who need to be told how to live, who need rules for everything...pretty soon we will told how to raise our children as well (wait, that ship already sailed)....rules....rules for rules and on top of other rules.......

I lit a fuse the other day, told a bunch of guys that no one has the right to tell Iran NOT to build weapons, how can we dictate that...I knew exactly what the response was....I wasn't disappointed...we are so predictable...... At the moment I said that to make the evening more interesting an be an "ass" ...(but in seriousness I very much support that view.....no one has the right to tell others what to do)

Be that nihilist "J" type, revel in your madness, it is your signature you were here.....be a polite asshole

This neatly leads me to EW - people claim EW is too subjective, too vague, multiple answers to everything, and that you never how how to use it......this appeals to me......EW waves can be isolated....no need to identify a complete 5W (with all its attendant intra-wave distribution)...I do okay (for me) trading 6months of the year trading just a part of the wave....and drinking scotch the other 6 months of the year......I don't have to have rules for EW...I like chaos, it ruffles other peoples' feathers, people lose their bearings, they make bad decisons...in their lives and with their capital...that creates short term market inefficiencies.............that all one needs .....The prediction bit works only if you identify major waves (isolating minor and intermedaite waves is not good enough)...because the major waves can kill if one is trading against it........

PS - I can't help but phrase things with double entendre, I know you get it - hope others do (if not, too bad)

 
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holder

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Nothing is probably more annoying than a greenhorn dispensing advice, but, if there are others like me out there, it might be helpful anyway. I tried taking a few introductory classes in several languages, but I really didn't how they introduced the subject. Then I stumbled across an old course from MIT (MIT OpenCourseWare | Electrical Engineering and Computer Science | 6.001 Structure and Interpretation of Computer Programs, Spring 2005 | Home).
I found it to be magical, but, judging by the reviews at Amazon, apparently it's a love/hate thing (Amazon.com: Structure and Interpretation of Computer Programs - 2nd Edition (MIT Electrical Engineering and Computer Science) (9780262510875): Harold Abelson, Gerald Jay Sussman, Julie Sussman: Books). The book is available for free here: Welcome to the SICP Web Site . Someone even made a free version for Kindle that's floating around.

After viewing the first couple of lectures, I searched the net for more information about LISP and Scheme. Among other things, I came across Matthias Felleisen (Matthias Felleisen), which has written several books about Scheme. Most notably is his How To Design Program (How to Design Programs Amazon.com: How to Design Programs: An Introduction to Programming and Computing (9780262062183): Matthias Felleisen, Robert Bruce Findler, Matthew Flatt, Shriram Krishnamurthi: Books). I actually haven't gone through that yet, but apparently it's quite good. I watched a few talks by him, though.




Suddenly things started to make sense, and I signed up for some CS at my local university thinking that I wanted to become a programmer. However, I was quite disappointed with how things are structured. I can't understand why LISP (or a dialect) isn't used in all first courses. It's much easier to grasp the concepts with LISP, whereas other languages only leaves me with more question about their structure. Anyway, as I continued my research, I found David S. Touretzky's book Common Lisp: A Gentle Introduction to Symbolic Computation (Common Lisp: A Gentle Introduction to Symbolic Computation). That is, hands down, the most excellent introduction to programming I've seen. It has no prerequisites other than a basic understanding of arithmetic (as opposed to calculus for SICP and algebra for HTDP). The book is full of graphical models that very clearly illustrates the concepts. I could not put it down once I started reading. I ended up completing that book before doing the rest of the SICP lectures, and that probably made those more enjoyable also.

I must say, I I recently started on Norvig's PAIP ( Amazon.com: Paradigms of Artificial Intelligence Programming: Case Studies in Common Lisp (9781558601918): Peter Norvig: Books) and it's really fun. My plan is to go through Paul Graham's book after that (On Lisp).

Brian Harvey also taught an intro CS course based on the SICP book (UC Berkeley Webcasts | Video and Podcasts:), but now LISP, as the first course at MIT was in 2008, has been replaced with Python. Berkeley still uses the framework of the SICP book, though. Paul Hilfinger taught the class this semester (UC Berkeley Webcasts | Video and Podcasts: / CS 61A Home Page). I just finished the Udacity CS 101, and plan to do the Berkeley class to further my Python skills a little. However, I think I'm going to go through Dennis Ritchie's book on C first (Amazon.com: C Programming Language (2nd Edition) (0076092003106): Brian W. Kernighan, Dennis M. Ritchie: Books). I feel it makes sense to learn a little about the low-level stuff also. Hopefully I'll manage to keep my OCD from forcing me to work down to assembly level.

Anyway, the whole point of this long-winded post was to express my love for Touretzky's book. Regardless of which language one wishes to learn, I think that book is a good place to start. Common Lisp: A Gentle Introduction to Symbolic Computation

Other resources of interest:

ADUni.org: ArsDigita University Alumni Website

Stanford School of Engineering - Stanford Engineering Everywhere

Free Online Course Materials | Audio/Video Courses | MIT OpenCourseWare

https://www.coursera.org/

A neat way of keeping track of all upcoming classes:
Class Central ? A complete list of free online courses offered by Stanford's Coursera, MIT's MITx, and Udacity


I'm also very excited about what MITx might deliver this fall. Hopefully one can take science classes of all kinds for credit :
MITx: MIT's new online learning initiative

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A couple of documentaries I watched last Christmas. It's apparent that this is the year I go full nerd!





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This is the most awesome one yet... Get ready for total brain melt:


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Deucalion View Post


This thread is awesome, I can read cool shit, not get into arguments with petty minds and just talk. Watch funky videos......

BTW, thanks on the neuroplasticity book link (Schwartz & Begley) - I am sold, Didn't do anything initially, But after going over Luminosity, CogniFIT and CogMed...I ended with with IQ Mindware's program.....on their forum...there are links to interesting research on brain rehabilitation from neuro-trauma medical research that feeds into the concept of neuroplasticity - some cutting edge stuff that indicated that as neuroplasticity gains a wider audience and research dollars, specific activities can eventually be developed in the future to channel development of specific functions - sort of like specific exercises to isolate fast fibers and slow twitch fibers in muscle tissue. Just imagining and understanding that the synapses can be re-rewired is mind blowing (pun intended). Not just in the area of undoing brain damage, but allowing the brain to perform at a higher level on trading endeavors .........A "Treadstone" program to create a "Jason Bourne" of trading ...perhaps.......woot! That's also where I got a referral to Begley and Schwartz's book - should have it shortly).

Friedman / Chomsky / Rand / Sowell - same view on drugs / war / colonialism / "occupation-ism" etc etc...all the hot button topics...no one wants to touch. I got a dirty look when I wanted my licence plate to read "KAOS" or "NRKST"....the desk clerk looked at me as if I was a child molester....anarchy is a bad word apparently with the wildebeest...who need to be told how to live, who need rules for everything...pretty soon we will told how to raise our children as well (wait, that ship already sailed)....rules....rules for rules and on top of other rules.......

I lit a fuse the other day, told a bunch of guys that no one has the right to tell Iran NOT to build weapons, how can we dictate that...I knew exactly what the response was....I wasn't disappointed...we are so predictable...... At the moment I said that to make the evening more interesting an be an "ass" ...(but in seriousness I very much support that view.....no one has the right to tell others what to do)

Be that nihilist "J" type, revel in your madness, it is your signature you were here.....be a polite asshole

This neatly leads me to EW - people claim EW is too subjective, too vague, multiple answers to everything, and that you never how how to use it......this appeals to me......EW waves can be isolated....no need to identify a complete 5W (with all its attendant intra-wave distribution)...I do okay (for me) trading 6months of the year trading just a part of the wave....and drinking scotch the other 6 months of the year......I don't have to have rules for EW...I like chaos, it ruffles other peoples' feathers, people lose their bearings, they make bad decisons...in their lives and with their capital...that creates short term market inefficiencies.............that all one needs .....The prediction bit works only if you identify major waves (isolating minor and intermedaite waves is not good enough)...because the major waves can kill if one is trading against it........

PS - I can't help but phrase things with double entendre, I know you get it - hope others do (if not, too bad)


Well, I rendered my placeholder post useless by taking an inordinate amount of time.

Yes, it's a cool thread. That's why I started it. I was hoping it would bring out more discussion, though. It seems only people sharing squiggly lines get attention...

You must report back on your experience with IQ Mindware. There's a lot going on that field. There is a research project at my university which focuses on brain plasticity and grey matter expansion. The results have been promising so far. I'm hoping to do a PET scan in not to long, and really start exploring the neural pathways. The next step is incorporating psychedelics -- the greatest untapped resource of modern times?

I've been trying to get that off the ground for years, but this has made it easier: Sobered up using LSD



Study: Psilocybin, the Drug in 'Magic Mushrooms,' Lifts Mood and Increases Compassion Over the Long Term | Healthland | TIME.com

I'm hoping to be the first to participate in/co-sponsor a clinical trial of LSD for OCD. I've been working on a theory of treatment for years, and I think it looks promising. The key lies in its properties as a 5-HT2A antagonist, which is not new, of course.

Ever since I read Amazon.com: Doors of Perception, the (Flamingo Modern Classics) (9780006547310): ALDOUS HUXLEY: Books in my teens, I've been extremely fascinated by the connection between consciousness and the unconscious mind.

Its importance in the revolution of computer science (among other things) at Berkely in the 60s is fascinating for sure. Even in modern days it seems one can trace some progress to LSD. LSD: The Geek's Wonder Drug?

Arne Næss, one of the greatest intellectuals of my tiny nation, said this:
Is it Painful to Think?: Conversations with Arne Næss - David Rothenberg, Arne Næss - Google Bøker

If you think the War on Drugs is a hot topic, try convincing people that LSD as a vehicle for treatment makes sense...

Sadly, people often lack the ability to think rationally and logically. LSD poses virtually no risk physiological harm, but psychological side-effects might occur. It seems that this only works as trigger for preexisting conditions, and does not cause anything by itself. It seems that latent inhibiton plays a part in one's ability to handle the substance. (Latent inhibition - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia) Roughly translated: It might lead to sensory overload for people of average intelligence or less, but it might have a potential for personal growth for highly intelligent individuals. If one considers the nature of psychedelics, I would claim that such a theory seems intuitively valid.

My focus, quite naturally, is on OCD, but the basic theories holds true for any behavioral modification. OCD is the ultimate "brain lock", everything else, except schizophrenia perhaps, should be slightly easier to untangle.

It seems your trading is eerily similar to my longer-term approach, at least philosophically. The market ebbs and flows; try not to wipe out too often...

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Well, I rendered my placeholder post useless by taking an inordinate amount of time.

Yes, it's a cool thread. That's why I started it. I was hoping it would bring out more discussion, though. It seems only people sharing squiggly lines get attention...

You must report back on your experience with IQ Mindware. There's a lot going on that field. There is a research project at my university which focuses on brain plasticity and grey matter expansion. The results have been promising so far. I'm hoping to do a PET scan in not to long, and really start exploring the neural pathways. The next step is incorporating psychedelics -- the greatest untapped resource of modern times?

I've been trying to get that off the ground for years, but this has made it easier: Sobered up using LSD



Study: Psilocybin, the Drug in 'Magic Mushrooms,' Lifts Mood and Increases Compassion Over the Long Term | Healthland | TIME.com

I'm hoping to be the first to participate in/co-sponsor a clinical trial of LSD for OCD. I've been working on a theory of treatment for years, and I think it looks promising. The key lies in its properties as a 5-HT2A antagonist, which is not new, of course.

Ever since I read Amazon.com: Doors of Perception, the (Flamingo Modern Classics) (9780006547310): ALDOUS HUXLEY: Books in my teens, I've been extremely fascinated by the connection between consciousness and the unconscious mind.

Its importance in the revolution of computer science (among other things) at Berkely in the 60s is fascinating for sure. Even in modern days it seems one can trace some progress to LSD. LSD: The Geek's Wonder Drug?

Arne Næss, one of the greatest intellectuals of my tiny nation, said this:
Is it Painful to Think?: Conversations with Arne Næss - David Rothenberg, Arne Næss - Google Bøker

If you think the War on Drugs is a hot topic, try convincing people that LSD as a vehicle for treatment makes sense...

Sadly, people often lack the ability to think rationally and logically. LSD poses virtually no risk physiological harm, but psychological side-effects might occur. It seems that this only works as trigger for preexisting conditions, and does not cause anything by itself. It seems that latent inhibiton plays a part in one's ability to handle the substance. (Latent inhibition - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia) Roughly translated: It might lead to sensory overload for people of average intelligence or less, but it might have a potential for personal growth for highly intelligent individuals. If one considers the nature of psychedelics, I would claim that such a theory seems intuitively valid.

My focus, quite naturally, is on OCD, but the basic theories holds true for any behavioral modification. OCD is the ultimate "brain lock", everything else, except schizophrenia perhaps, should be slightly easier to untangle.

It seems your trading is eerily similar to my longer-term approach, at least philosophically. The market ebbs and flows; try not to wipe out too often...

I am not a scientist and so I will refuse to argue any of the points or ideas put forth here as I simply don't understand....but I had a cousin on LSD who we had to teach to tie his shoes once he got off. The stuff simply fried his brain.....he is permanently disabled but can function in society albeit with difficulty....I'm not convinced its "safe".

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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I am not a scientist and so I will refuse to argue any of the points or ideas put forth here as I simply don't understand....but I had a cousin on LSD who we had to teach to tie his shoes once he got off. The stuff simply fried his brain.....he is permanently disabled but can function in society albeit with difficulty....I'm not convinced its "safe".

"LSD is non-addictive, is not known to cause brain damage, and has extremely low toxicity relative to dose, although in rare cases adverse psychiatric reactions such as anxiety or delusions are possible "(Lysergic acid diethylamide - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia)

"Despite LSD’s successful and safe use as a psychotherapeutic adjunct and experimental tool (cf. Ref. [7] and the retrospective surveys of Cohen [8] and Malleson [9]), almost no legal clinical research with LSD has occurred since the 1970s. "

I'm sorry to hear about your cousin, but the pharmacology of LSD has been researched extensively and it has been found to be the least harmful drug of all. Unlike alcohol, e.g., it's not neurotoxic.

Acute states of psychosis can occur, but the brain can not be "fried" as such. Are you sure he did not combine it with other drugs? If this happened in recent times, it could have been another substances nearly as potent as LSD with unknown side-effects. An extremely large dose might also have serious adverse effects.

LSD manufactured by pharmaceutical companies does not pose a serious risk for physical damage, at least not in correct doses.

I'm not advocating prolonged or recreational use. I am referring to it as a tool to use under controlled circumstances.

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"LSD is non-addictive, is not known to cause brain damage, and has extremely low toxicity relative to dose, although in rare cases adverse psychiatric reactions such as anxiety or delusions are possible "(Lysergic acid diethylamide - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia)

"Despite LSD’s successful and safe use as a psychotherapeutic adjunct and experimental tool (cf. Ref. [7] and the retrospective surveys of Cohen [8] and Malleson [9]), almost no legal clinical research with LSD has occurred since the 1970s. "

I'm sorry to hear about your cousin, but the pharmacology of LSD has been researched extensively and it has been found to be the least harmful drug of all. Unlike alcohol, e.g., it's not neurotoxic.

Acute states of psychosis can occur, but the brain can not be "fried" as such. Are you sure he did not combine it with other drugs? If this happened in recent times, it could have been another substances nearly as potent as LSD with unknown side-effects. An extremely large dose might also have serious adverse effects.

LSD manufactured by pharmaceutical companies does not pose a serious risk for physical damage, at least not in correct doses.

I'm not advocating prolonged or recreational use. I am referring to it as a tool to use under controlled circumstances.

I wouln't advocate it either nor have or will try it but I do know someone that used it (LSD) and actully dealt it and until he told me about it I would never have guessed he was a user. He's a "normal" guy about 65 years old now and has suffered no illeffects. As to how much he used in terms of dosage I don't know....

Heroin on the other hand has taken the life of the child of a person I know.

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Getting deeper into the depth of material and the enormity of what is potentially at hand here.

Brain Plasticity: How learning changes your brain | SharpBrains

Amazon.com: The Brain That Changes Itself: Stories of Personal Triumph from the Frontiers of Brain Science (Null) (9780143113102): Norman Doidge: Books

Both sharper brains and this book seem to resonate with Colvin's thoughts. Imagine combining the two, to sharpen your skills and directly impact your discretionary decision making process......Lornz, I salute you again for introducing neuroplasticity to us ignorami (is that a word?)

The n-feedback mechanism on demonstrated results: New Study Supports Neurofeedback Treatment for ADHD | SharpBrains

Myths and non myths: Cognitive Fitness and the Mature Workforce: Opportunities and Chall...

And, of course, something for the miscreant - Neuroplasticity is a dirty word Mind Hacks

I will post my notes from IQMindWare's program a bit later, so far I have been sidetracked the amount of material on the matter that is available. What a great tool this inter-web thingie is!


 
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"LSD is non-addictive, is not known to cause brain damage, and has extremely low toxicity relative to dose, although in rare cases adverse psychiatric reactions such as anxiety or delusions are possible "(Lysergic acid diethylamide - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia)

"Despite LSD’s successful and safe use as a psychotherapeutic adjunct and experimental tool (cf. Ref. [7] and the retrospective surveys of Cohen [8] and Malleson [9]), almost no legal clinical research with LSD has occurred since the 1970s. "

I'm sorry to hear about your cousin, but the pharmacology of LSD has been researched extensively and it has been found to be the least harmful drug of all. Unlike alcohol, e.g., it's not neurotoxic.

Acute states of psychosis can occur, but the brain can not be "fried" as such. Are you sure he did not combine it with other drugs? If this happened in recent times, it could have been another substances nearly as potent as LSD with unknown side-effects. An extremely large dose might also have serious adverse effects.

LSD manufactured by pharmaceutical companies does not pose a serious risk for physical damage, at least not in correct doses.

I'm not advocating prolonged or recreational use. I am referring to it as a tool to use under controlled circumstances.


Its entirely possible he took very large doses for an extended period of time. Its also possible he used a version that was perhaps laced with other more dangerous drugs....as is common among street dealers and users.

After I wrote my comment, I wondered about the idea of pharmaceutical grade LSD vs the street variety.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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I wouln't advocate it either nor have or will try it but I do know someone that used it (LSD) and actully dealt it and until he told me about it I would never have guessed he was a user. He's a "normal" guy about 65 years old now and has suffered no illeffects. As to how much he used in terms of dosage I don't know....

Heroin on the other hand has taken the life of the child of a person I know.

Excellent. So if I fail to convince the government, I assume you can refer me to him?

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Its entirely possible he took very large doses for an extended period of time. Its also possible he used a version that was perhaps laced with other more dangerous drugs....as is common among street dealers and users.

After I wrote my comment, I wondered about the idea of pharmaceutical grade LSD vs the street variety.

There's also a vast difference between taking it in a controlled environment and going to clubs etc. I would say that the latter is a gamble. It seems most of the "good" cases has done it in more of a meditative setting, while psychiatric institutions are homes to people who were looking to "party". It is definitely a powerful drug, and precautions should be taken.

I think this video is a really good illustration of what it can be like:


I also found these funny.




Although it overemphasizes the dangers, this is quite good:


Another interesting substance is DMT (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dimethyltryptamine (which is found naturally in the body)), but that seems far too volatile to use for treatment.

There have been successful studies of both Psilocybin (OCD) and MDMA (cluster headaches and posttraumatic stress disorder), and momentum seems to be gaining for further exploring the healing effects of psychedelics. LSD has been given to cancer patients to help them overcome the fear of death, e.g.

I have a meeting with some leading experts in Norway in a few weeks. Hopefully I'll get to put money where my mouth is.

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A Timothy Leary for the Viral Video Age - Ross Andersen - Technology - The Atlantic

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Drugs have an interesting impact on perception of reality. If you feed spiders with them, it will change the way they weave their webs.

Here are some of the outcomes.


Spider on Marijuana:





Spider on Benzedrine:





Spider on Caffeine:





Spider on LSD:




At a first glance it looks that caffeine is more dangerous than LSD, but a second glance you will note that the LSD web lacks stability. It appears that the spider was overlooking something.

I generally don't trade on LSD, it affects my pattern recognition capabilities. Even caffeine seems to be a dangerous drug, I am therefore restricting myself to the use of Darjeeling and red wine.


How to Use Taxpayer's Money

Back in 1974, prior to the various debt bubbles, there was a better use for taxpayer's money than saving banks and their greedy employees. See below:

Scattered thoughts...-joa_v2_p37.pdf

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At a first glance it looks that caffeine is more dangerous than LSD, but a second glance you will note that the LSD web lacks stability. It appears that the spider was overlooking something.

Au contraire, the LSD web looks harmonious and centered.

Trading on LSD might be a fascinating experiment (the Holy Grail?) Probably don't need to tweak the indicator colors after that.

"The mind is its own place, and in itself can make a heaven of hell, a hell of heaven." - Milton
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just a quickie here - been on road for last two weeks so missed all this discussion. Just catching up....

Lornz - if you have interest in OCD, check this book out - You are not your brain. Jeffrey Schwartz is an interesting cat - also see this paper of his on quantum mech and consciousness: https://www-physics.lbl.gov/~stapp/PTB6.pdf

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just a quickie here - been on road for last two weeks so missed all this discussion. Just catching up....

Lornz - if you have interest in OCD, check this book out - You are not your brain. Jeffrey Schwartz is an interesting cat - also see this paper of his on quantum mech and consciousness: https://www-physics.lbl.gov/~stapp/PTB6.pdf

Good to see you back, @Surly!

He's been mentioned a few times already. I came across him nearly 10 years ago, he's a prominent figure within the OCD community. It's an interesting concept, and, in my opinion, a very interesting look at the role of consciousness. One could say that it makes us architects of our own mind. Or maybe it would be better to say that we are programmers of our biological operating system. Yeah, I think I like that one better. (TM and (C))!

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I apologize for the non sequitur, but I must:

"The trouble with quotes on the Internet is that you never know if they are genuine." - Abraham Lincoln

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@Fat Tails, your post made me think of this:

Acid trip 1

Nine drawings

These 9 drawings were done by an artist under the influence of LSD -- part of a test conducted by the US government during it's dalliance with psychotomimetic drugs in the late 1950's. The artist was given a dose of LSD 25 and free access to an activity box full of crayons and pencils. His subject is the medico that jabbed him.

First drawing is done 20 minutes after the first dose (50ug)

An attending doctor observes - Patient chooses to start drawing with charcoal.

The subject of the experiment reports - 'Condition normal... no effect from the drug yet'.




85 minutes after first dose and 20 minutes after a second dose has been administered (50ug + 50ug)

The patient seems euphoric.

'I can see you clearly, so clearly. This... you... it's all ... I'm having a little trouble controlling this pencil. It seems to want to keep going.'




2 hours 30 minutes after first dose.

Patient appears very focus on the business of drawing.

'Outlines seem normal, but very vivid - everything is changing colour. My hand must follow the bold sweep of the lines. I feel as if my consciousness is situated in the part of my body that's now active - my hand, my elbow... my tongue'.




2 hours 32 minutes after first dose.

Patient seems gripped by his pad of paper.

'I'm trying another drawing. The outlines of the model are normal, but now those of my drawing are not. The outline of my hand is going weird too. It's not a very good drawing is it? I give up - I'll try again...'





2 hours 35 minutes after first dose.

Patient follows quickly with another drawing.

'I'll do a drawing in one flourish... without stopping... one line, no break!'

Upon completing the drawing the patient starts laughing, then becomes startled by something on the floor.





2 hours 45 minutes after first dose.

Patient tries to climb into activity box, and is generally agitated - responds slowly to the suggestion he might like to draw some more. He has become largely none verbal.

'I am... everything is... changed... they're calling... your face... interwoven... who is...' Patient mumbles inaudibly to a tune (sounds like 'Thanks for the memory). He changes medium to Tempera.





4 hours 25 minutes after first dose.

Patient retreated to the bunk, spending approximately 2 hours lying, waving his hands in the air. His return to the activity box is sudden and deliberate, changing media to pen and water colour.

'This will be the best drawing, Like the first one, only better. If I'm not careful I'll lose control of my movements, but I won't, because I know. I know' - (this saying is then repeated many times).

Patient makes the last half-a-dozen strokes of the drawing while running back and forth across the room.






5 hours 45 minutes after first dose.

Patient continues to move about the room, intersecting the space in complex variations. It's an hour and a half before he settles down to draw again - he appears over the effects of the drug.

'I can feel my knees again, I think it's starting to wear off. This is a pretty good drawing - this pencil is mighty hard to hold' - (he is holding a crayon).





8 hours after first dose.

Patient sits on bunk bed. He reports the intoxication has worn off except for the occational distorting of our faces. We ask for a final drawing which he performs with little enthusiasm.

'I have nothing to say about this last drawing, it is bad and uninteresting, I want to go home now.'




I was unsure of the validity of the experiment, but according to 3 Myths And 8 True Stories About LSD it is actually true.

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Those drawings reminded me of Pushwagner's (Pushwagner | Home page) Soft City. He's done LSD a few times, too...










Soft City was a collaboration with writer Axel Jensen (Axel Jensen - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia). I actually think that Axel Jensen was the real " The Most Interesting Man Alive". I recommended reading a book about him, he actually did it all.

If you like the Soft City art, I recommend reading Epp. It's about conformity, and quite enjoyable for free thinkers.

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I actually found video footage of another drawing experiment. He cries of joy at the end:




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Getting deeper into the depth of material and the enormity of what is potentially at hand here.

Brain Plasticity: How learning changes your brain | SharpBrains

Amazon.com: The Brain That Changes Itself: Stories of Personal Triumph from the Frontiers of Brain Science (Null) (9780143113102): Norman Doidge: Books

Both sharper brains and this book seem to resonate with Colvin's thoughts. Imagine combining the two, to sharpen your skills and directly impact your discretionary decision making process......Lornz, I salute you again for introducing neuroplasticity to us ignorami (is that a word?)

The n-feedback mechanism on demonstrated results: New Study Supports Neurofeedback Treatment for ADHD | SharpBrains

Myths and non myths: Cognitive Fitness and the Mature Workforce: Opportunities and Chall...

And, of course, something for the miscreant - Neuroplasticity is a dirty word Mind Hacks

I will post my notes from IQMindWare's program a bit later, so far I have been sidetracked the amount of material on the matter that is available. What a great tool this inter-web thingie is!


Haha, no problem!

I just find it fun to see others interested in this kind of stuff. It's a very different view of existence. I think it might appeal especially to INTJs, as we already think we are gods!

The article on Mind Hacks is right, of course. However, I would argue that the extent of neuroplasticity is still in its early stages it seems. In Doidge's first documentary one is introduced to stroke victims, and the progress is quite astounding. Not to mention the section on the blind guy. I don't really like Doidge's persona, he gives me a used car salesman vibe... But, he interviews some interesting researchers and patients.

I also agree with the fact that neuroplasticity is a buzzword, and I usually hate those. It doesn't seem practical to get very technical on trading message board, though. And I also think that it might discourage others of further educating themselves if one starts out to heavy. The general idea of self-directed neuroplasticity is usually well-received, but many give up and claim defeat too soon. It will be interesting to follow your progress. I remember how exciting I thought this was when I first looked into it nearly a decade ago.

I couldn't find the documentary based on Doidge's book, but it's worth watching if you can find it on a torrent site or similar. It aired on Canadian TV in 08, and was available here: The Brain that Changes Itself : The Nature of Things with David Suzuki : CBC-TV

This is the follow-up from 2010:


I also like this talk by Richard J. Davidson:

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Lornz View Post
I actually found video footage of another drawing experiment. He cries of joy at the end:


Artificial euphoria.....a seemingly lack of ability to communicate in an articulate manner and a disturbing distortion of reality evidenced by the two different pictures that appeared the same.....I am not sure what the experiment was designed to prove and not sure what benefit this shows...

If this is typical of LSD users, I don't think I would want to partake. I'm not interested in experiencing what I saw...It was however, fascinating to watch.....I'd like to see a movie of what he saw in his mind while still retaining control of my faculties.

I'll follow this discussion with some interest....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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“Oscar” the dachshund is dead.





The dog was struck Sunday night by a car after running from its Snellville, Georgia home. The accident, police reported, occurred after the pet’s owners dosed the animal with LSD.

Nicholas Modrich and Jaime Hughes, both 25, were investigated for disorderly conduct after cops discovered them tripping in their Pinehurst Road residence. Witnesses had called 911 to report spotting the couple running naked on a nearby roadway.

During questioning by police, Hughes said that she and Modrich “had done acid earlier.” She also repeatedly asked officers if they knew the whereabouts of “Oscar,” their long-haired dachshund. While being transported to the hospital the duo told a Snellville cop that “they had given acid to their dog.”

The dog, cops subsequently learned, was struck by a car about half-a-mile from its home. “Oscar,” who had been adopted from the county’s animal shelter, died after being transported to a local animal hospital. Since the dog bit two people after being hit by the car, animal control officials will now test the animal’s corpse for rabies.

Police, who are seeking to interview Modrich and Hughes about the bizarre events Sunday evening, have said that the filing of animal cruelty charges against the couple is a possibility.

Modrich is a guitarist who fronts the group "Funguy Trio." The band, whose name appears to be a play on the word "fungi," likens its sound to "the inside of a mushroom after it has consumed you," according to its MySpace page. On his own MySpace page, Modrich, pictured above, includes “psychedelics,” “green herbs,” and “booze!!!” among his influences. His band's songs include "Mind Magic" and "Captain Pothead."

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@Fat Tails : That's the kind of intellectual progress that LSD can lead. I think you just proved my point!

@PandaWarrior : I will retort later today. I have to take advantage of the beautiful spring weather...

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Good to see you back, @Surly!

He's been mentioned a few times already. I came across him nearly 10 years ago, he's a prominent figure within the OCD community. It's an interesting concept, and, in my opinion, a very interesting look at the role of consciousness. One could say that it makes us architects of our own mind. Or maybe it would be better to say that we are programmers of our biological operating system. Yeah, I think I like that one better. (TM and (C))!

I figured you'd know about him - his work is in line with "self-directed neuroplasticity". Have you seen John Lilly's "programming and meta-programming in the human biocomputer"? Obviously dated in terms of neuroscience but science relating to the mind often only catches up with what might be called "folk knowledge".

LSD is an awesome way to learn about your mind and what is possible in terms of different "realities" (i.e., how your mind builds up its unique representation of the physical/emotional/rational world). I spent several years in my youth exploring consciousness with it (it is impossible not to sound like a hippie when speaking of LSD - we really don't have a good lexicon or cultural framework for the type of knowledge/experience available in this realm). When used properly LSD (or psilocybin) can at least allow you to temporarily see other possibilities for looking at how you build up the reality you inhabit (here I mean reality in terms of how your mind constructs its representation - not in terms of physical laws, causality, etc).

Although I agree with what Chogyam Trungpa says about LSD being like "driving a car to go next door" and with what Richard Alpert says about it being a great way to be shown the way but that durable expansion of consciousness/potential only comes through diligent effort over time (an idea that aligns well with Jeffrey Schwartz's concept of "mental force" and how directed attention promotes neuroplasticity).

All good stuff!

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Surely you are joking about Bayesian analysis not applying to trading.

These 2 old old articles (How experts make decisions under uncertainty - PART I & Part II.) for some reason triggered some very deep clicks in my head last year when I came across them (both on Bayesian inferences, both by Dr Brett on decision making processes with uncertain and incomplete datasets). At that point I had not heard about any of this - Bayesians, heuristics, adaptive & evolutionary behaviours. What a difference one year makes!

Both talk about how our brains have the ability to process old and new information, and how this information is weighted and meshed. Rational traders have the ability, with either mechanical methods or experience, to place proper weight age to new and unfolding information. Emotional traders don't. Both him and Salzman & Trifan below suggest the same thing, as does Gigerenzer. The latter goes a step in a different direction suggesting that simple heuristics can optimize those analytical methods more than people give them credit.

In this study (uploaded pdf), in 2005, Trifan and Salzman attempted to study market behaviour of Rationals (Bayesians) and Emotionals. I have highlighted some sections I found interesting regarding the behaviours of traders in the decison making process. Essentially, they conclude that, as expected, the Rationals performed best.

They also noted that under certain conditions the emotional traders (relying on honed intuition) may overcome the shortcoming of their emotional leanings by fine tuning their intuition in a similar manner to the rationals. They even suggest that, it may be possible for the emotional trader to produce out size returns as compared to the Rationals in such a case.

This suggests that emotive trading when guided with certain Bayesian behaviours with honed intuition (which is being considered a learned skill these days) is a powerful combination. I have viewed hard work , screen time, open conceptualization and a study of history as some of the ways intutition can be tuned (and I continue to do so).

Gigerenzer (who is referenced in the above study) suggests that both simple heuristics and intution play an often misjudged role in decision making (especially when considering decision making in an uncertain world). This gels, as none of thse concepts stand alone or in violation of another, but seemingly as a cohesive, meshed thought process. I found these very constructive (about intuition and the role of simple heuristics in optimising the decision making process). I don't under stand much about heuristics itself yet, but in time hopefully it will get better.





Both the paper and Gerd suggest that these methods by themselves are not superior, but that they should be not be shunned simply becuase they cannot be quantified as easily as other traditional methods of analysis.

There is paper referenced to Andrew Lo about markets, evolution and adaptive behaviour that was also referenced somewhere else (I cannot remember where) and even more cool was the reference to Doyne Farmer's paper on Market Force (that was one of the foundations of his research leading to the Prediction Company discussed earlier.)



My point is this - when I read Brett's papers initally about how figher pilots make decisions in seconds with new unfolding information for survival, or how athletes change their response mid swing or mid action, this clicked with me. On a very simple level, I related that instantly to how I play squash, often changing my decisions mid swing or mid - stroke. How I will evaluate strokes long before I hit them, as my opposer is simply moving and before he hits his shot. In 15years, my decision making in squash has become intuitive. Fluid. I don't have to think any more, it just comes. In my mind, I have been able to isolate instances that my trading has displayed similar characteristics. I have no doubt this is from practice, screen time and focus. In trading, I am no where close to that fluid level, there is too much thinking going on, and not enough honed intuition so far.

I have no doubt that this path will contiue to fine tune itself as long as I don't do anything stupid. I believe most traders would benefit from that, even if they are mechanical types. Problem is, this is no doubt hard to put down on paper, hard to show to others, hard to demonstrate with pretty and squiggly lines. people don't pay sustained attention to it for long enough to see results. And therefore, the lack of interest in this forum to such dry things.

The response to the mind games stuff on other threads is very encouraging though, people are waking up...and that is step one, I think.

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As cool as the above stuff is to me, this one well and truly blows my mind, not just plain old brain elasticity, but actual neurogensis. Wowsa!



Dr Kandel with the more of the same....Healthy Minds ~ Neurogenesis (#108) | WLIW21 Productions

And the best for last, a true pioneering miscreant....The Molecules of Emotion (Dr Candice Pert)



Funnily, that vid about Pert, reminded me of this...."Win or lose, everybody gets what they want out of the market. Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money". Now, which wise guy said that?

 
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Very interesting, thanks! Especially like Gigerenzer (intuition vs. algo discussion, simple vs. complex, full vs. partial info...etc.).

Found a paper by him on Smarter Heuristics. Looking forward to reading his books on Gut Feelings and Risk.

"The mind is its own place, and in itself can make a heaven of hell, a hell of heaven." - Milton
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Thanks @Deucalion - great post w great links, etc. I like the talk by Farmer and looked more into INET - they just hosted a symposium in Berlin this last weekend. Soros was a co-sponsor and has a few talks including one on reflexivity that I haven't had a chance to watch yet. I did watch Damasio's address and found him interesting as always. Also looked more into Gigerenzer and his book on guy feelings. All this helps... my skull is thick but its starting to open up...

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Lornz View Post
Excellent. So if I fail to convince the government, I assume you can refer me to him?

The very best reference for an undamaged brain is
Albert Hofmann himself. He discovered LSD in 1938 and tried it over a very long time in various dosages
as part of self-tests. He was interviewed at his 100th birthday. His brain and memory were still excellent and
he could speak about his LSD adventures as it were yesterday.
Hofmann who lived in my neighbourhood died 2008 of natural cases at the age of 102.
wiki: Albert Hofmann - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

GFIs1

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This clip may help you appreciate Beethoven's 5th Symphony just a little more. A lot like the market in some aspects.

"The mind is its own place, and in itself can make a heaven of hell, a hell of heaven." - Milton
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I've found what I think some will find to be a real treat :-) Reminds me of the Truman Capote of science.

Ingo Swann - Human Super Sensitivities and the Future - YouTube

All the best

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Artificial euphoria.....a seemingly lack of ability to communicate in an articulate manner and a disturbing distortion of reality evidenced by the two different pictures that appeared the same.....I am not sure what the experiment was designed to prove and not sure what benefit this shows...

If this is typical of LSD users, I don't think I would want to partake. I'm not interested in experiencing what I saw...It was however, fascinating to watch.....I'd like to see a movie of what he saw in his mind while still retaining control of my faculties.

I'll follow this discussion with some interest....




I guess that depends on one's definition of "artificial". I see LSD as a tool to dive deep into one's (un)consciousness. I read Huxley's (Aldous Huxley - Doors of Perception - YouTube) Doors of Perception, the (Flamingo Modern Classics): ALDOUS HUXLEY: 9780006547310: Amazon.com: Books as a teenager, and it profoundly changed my view of the world and my own brain. The divide between the layers of consciousness and how we perceive the world is something I find really interesting. I like Tor Nørretrander's term The User Illusion . The difference of "bandwidth" between the conscious "I" and the unconscious "Me" is enormous. Huxley described it as being funneled through the reducing valve of the brain.

The eyes catches light and translates it into nerve impulses, and then we project an image in our minds. To what degree does that projection reflect the real world? This talk is really interesting:


"Information in the form of energy streams in, simultaneously, through all of our sensory systems in the form of energy.
And then it explodes into this enormous collage of what this present moment looks like, what it feels like, and what it sounds like"

Huxley went out in style:


A MP trying mescaline for a BBC documentary:


A pretty decent documentary:


It just seems that a lot of good, both for the individual (Study: Psilocybin, the Drug in 'Magic Mushrooms,' Lifts Mood and Increases Compassion Over the Long Term | Healthland | TIME.com) and for society as a whole (LSD: The Geek's Wonder Drug?), can materialize by trying to expand one's consciousness. Lucid dreaming and meditation are other approaches. It's not about drugs per se, but about looking inwards. This seems to become increasingly difficult in today's world, and it seems that more information leads to less intelligent thought (https://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/14/opinion/sunday/the-elusive-big-idea.html?_r=1&pagewanted=all)

I don't smoke, do drugs or even drink anymore, but I would argue that seeking out altered states of consciousness is a fundamental property of human beings. Even Freud did cocaine (https://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/24/books/review/an-anatomy-of-addiction-by-howard-markel-book-review.html?_r=1&pagewanted=all). It seems that intelligent people are drawn towards various substances (Why Kids With High IQs Are More Likely to Take Drugs | Healthland | TIME.com). Personally, I vehemently despise using substances for relief or escape, as I think that is a cop out of being a thinking being. I place psychedelics in a different category, though; they are tools to examine oneself on a deeper level.


Another very interesting chemical is DMT. It is found "everywhere", and it is even produced naturally in our own body. But, although I can't be certain of anything, I oppose the views of spirituality that is sometimes invoked by psychonauts (Amazon.com: DMT: The Spirit Molecule: A Doctor's Revolutionary Research into the Biology of Near-Death and Mystical Experiences (9780892819270): Rick Strassman: Books). I think this is a gross underestimation of the vastness of one's mind.

There is an increasing interest, or at least willingness to publicly admit one's interest, in exploring the potential healing properties of psychedelics:
PsychiatryOnline | American Journal of Psychiatry | DMT: The Spirit Molecule: A Doctor?s Revolutionary Research Into the Biology of Near-Death and Mystical Experiences

"But when we combine studies that had sound methodology, the results are unambiguous. We can therefore safely conclude that a single dose of LSD had a positive treatment effect that lasted at least six months," Krebs and Johansen said.

Sobered up using LSD




Other links of interest:

Steve Jobs
Ryan Grim: Read the Never-Before-Published Letter From LSD-Inventor Albert Hofmann to Apple CEO Steve Jobs

Ralph Abraham (Ralph Abraham - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia)


Kary Mullis (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kary_Mullis):

Mullis details his experiences synthesizing and testing various psychedelic amphetamines and a difficult trip on DET in his autobiography. In a Q&A interview published in the September, 1994, issue of California Monthly, Mullis said, "Back in the 1960s and early '70s I took plenty of LSD. A lot of people were doing that in Berkeley back then. And I found it to be a mind-opening experience. It was certainly much more important than any courses I ever took."[28] During a symposium held for centenarian Albert Hofmann, "Hofmann revealed that he was told by Nobel-prize-winning chemist Kary Mullis that LSD had helped him develop the polymerase chain reaction that helps amplify specific DNA sequences."[29] Replying to his own postulate during an interview for BBC's Psychedelic Science documentary, "What if I had not taken LSD ever; would I have still invented PCR?" He replied, "I don't know. I doubt it. I seriously doubt it."


John C. Lilly's (John C. Lilly - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia) experiments with ketamin and sensory deprivation is also interesting.


Francis Crick (Francis Crick - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia) co-discoverer of the structure of the DNA molecule:

https://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/11/science/11book.html?pagewanted=all

LSD, Francis Crick, and the secret of life

THE SCIENTIFIC SEARCH FOR THE SOUL: Part II with FRANCIS CRICK, Ph.D.


Even the Bible came about as a result of drugs:
Hebrew University researcher: Moses was tripping at Mount Sinai - Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News

Finally, if psychedelics isn't your thing, maybe you can give this a try: Savant for a Day - NYTimes.com


This post will conclude my posting on the matter, but hopefully someone got something out of it. Just thinking about such concepts may help break one's wrongfully imposed barriers on one's own mind.

I'll catch you potential psychonauts on the flipside!

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I will start contradicting myself already.

I forgot about Dr. Stanislav Grof:

Grof (Stanislav Grof - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia) did some very interesting therapeutic work with LSD:




I'll also include another documentary:

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GFIs1 View Post
The very best reference for an undamaged brain is
Albert Hofmann himself. He discovered LSD in 1938 and tried it over a very long time in various dosages
as part of self-tests. He was interviewed at his 100th birthday. His brain and memory were still excellent and
he could speak about his LSD adventures as it were yesterday.
Hofmann who lived in my neighbourhood died 2008 of natural cases at the age of 102.
wiki: Albert Hofmann - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

GFIs1

Thanks for participating, but I think you misunderstood my comment.

I am very well aware of who Dr. Hofmann is. He was a very intelligent and interesting individual. However, I don't wish to pry a vial of Sandoz from his cold, dead hands...

Did you ever speak to him?

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whatnext View Post
I've found what I think some will find to be a real treat :-) Reminds me of the Truman Capote of science.

Ingo Swann - Human Super Sensitivities and the Future - YouTube

All the best

I only watched a few minutes, but he is an odd character indeed.

That stuff is way too far out for my taste, I am more interested in the hidden caves within...

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Surly View Post
I figured you'd know about him - his work is in line with "self-directed neuroplasticity". Have you seen John Lilly's "programming and meta-programming in the human biocomputer"? Obviously dated in terms of neuroscience but science relating to the mind often only catches up with what might be called "folk knowledge".

LSD is an awesome way to learn about your mind and what is possible in terms of different "realities" (i.e., how your mind builds up its unique representation of the physical/emotional/rational world). I spent several years in my youth exploring consciousness with it (it is impossible not to sound like a hippie when speaking of LSD - we really don't have a good lexicon or cultural framework for the type of knowledge/experience available in this realm). When used properly LSD (or psilocybin) can at least allow you to temporarily see other possibilities for looking at how you build up the reality you inhabit (here I mean reality in terms of how your mind constructs its representation - not in terms of physical laws, causality, etc).

Although I agree with what Chogyam Trungpa says about LSD being like "driving a car to go next door" and with what Richard Alpert says about it being a great way to be shown the way but that durable expansion of consciousness/potential only comes through diligent effort over time (an idea that aligns well with Jeffrey Schwartz's concept of "mental force" and how directed attention promotes neuroplasticity).

All good stuff!

Thanks for sharing!

I have not read Lilly's book, but I am aware of it. It's been on my list for years, but I've never gotten around to it. I've read far too few books, and that is something I'm trying to remedy. I'm much more of a thinker than a reader, and I sometimes find it difficult to devote time to other people's thoughts...

Well put! I sometimes get embarrassed when speaking of it, mostly because I feel I have trouble communicating my thoughts clearly. It's very easy to sound like hippie, something I am not. I am mostly interested in gaining insight and control over mind and body, in addition to using it as a tool for scientific, or trading, breakthroughs (à la Crick).

I've always liked the very abstract and the unmistakable concrete, but I struggle with things in between. That's why I'm fascinated by trading; It's both very mechanical and abstract at the same time. I've been scratching the surface of Complex Adaptive Systems lately, and that seems right up my alley. I've also devoted more time to AI, which is something I've wanted to do for years. More about this in my reply to @Deucalion in a little while.

My goal was to accumulate 8 figures before I could really start living, but I've adjusted my goal a little. I spent three years traveling the world; flying first class and staying in suites at five star hotels. Everything gets old after a while, and the most fun is to be had within one's own brain. I despise myself for not pursuing my real interests much sooner, but I guess that's part of growing up...

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Anagami View Post
Very interesting, thanks! Especially like Gigerenzer (intuition vs. algo discussion, simple vs. complex, full vs. partial info...etc.).

Found a paper by him on Smarter Heuristics. Looking forward to reading his books on Gut Feelings and Risk.

Thanks. I love Edge.org. A lot of people find it to be intellectual masturbation, but I've picked up some interesting concepts there.

As a strange coincidence, but very off-topic, (thankfully this whole thread is), someone presented me with a paper yesterday:

https://www.sunypress.edu/pdf/21515778.03.01.01.pdf

which is based on C.P. Snow's The Two Cultures

The editor of Edge.org, John Brockman, wrote Third Culture: Beyond the Scientific Revolution

A brief description here:
The Third Culture | Edge

To sum up my thoughts of the paper:

A mathematician who is not also something of a poet will never be a complete mathematician. - Karl Weierstrass

After a certain high level of technical skill is achieved, science and art tend to coalesce in esthetics, plasticity, and form. The greatest scientists are always artists as well.
—Albert Einstein

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Surly View Post
Thanks @Deucalion - great post w great links, etc. I like the talk by Farmer and looked more into INET - they just hosted a symposium in Berlin this last weekend. Soros was a co-sponsor and has a few talks including one on reflexivity that I haven't had a chance to watch yet. I did watch Damasio's address and found him interesting as always. Also looked more into Gigerenzer and his book on guy feelings. All this helps... my skull is thick but its starting to open up...

Reflexivity is indeed an interesting concept...

By the way, I think you're misjudging the thickness of your skull!

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Lornz View Post
Thanks. I love Edge.org. A lot of people find it to be intellectual masturbation, but I've picked up some interesting concepts there.

As a strange coincidence, but very off-topic, (thankfully this whole thread is), someone presented me with a paper yesterday:

https://www.sunypress.edu/pdf/21515778.03.01.01.pdf

which is based on C.P. Snow's The Two Cultures

The editor of Edge.org, John Brockman, wrote Third Culture: Beyond the Scientific Revolution

A brief description here:
The Third Culture | Edge

To sum up my thoughts of the paper:

A mathematician who is not also something of a poet will never be a complete mathematician. - Karl Weierstrass

After a certain high level of technical skill is achieved, science and art tend to coalesce in esthetics, plasticity, and form. The greatest scientists are always artists as well.
—Albert Einstein

Thanks, edge.com looks like it has tons of informative stuff.

The paper has a Wittgenstein quote on top, now I have to bloody read it.

Just finished


Excellent, makes one think about deeper implications for trading (less is more, heuristics vs. complexity).

"The mind is its own place, and in itself can make a heaven of hell, a hell of heaven." - Milton
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Deucalion View Post
Surely you are joking about Bayesian analysis not applying to trading.

These 2 old old articles (How experts make decisions under uncertainty - PART I & Part II.) for some reason triggered some very deep clicks in my head last year when I came across them (both on Bayesian inferences, both by Dr Brett on decision making processes with uncertain and incomplete datasets). At that point I had not heard about any of this - Bayesians, heuristics, adaptive & evolutionary behaviours. What a difference one year makes!

Both talk about how our brains have the ability to process old and new information, and how this information is weighted and meshed. Rational traders have the ability, with either mechanical methods or experience, to place proper weight age to new and unfolding information. Emotional traders don't. Both him and Salzman & Trifan below suggest the same thing, as does Gigerenzer. The latter goes a step in a different direction suggesting that simple heuristics can optimize those analytical methods more than people give them credit.

In this study (uploaded pdf), in 2005, Trifan and Salzman attempted to study market behaviour of Rationals (Bayesians) and Emotionals. I have highlighted some sections I found interesting regarding the behaviours of traders in the decison making process. Essentially, they conclude that, as expected, the Rationals performed best.

They also noted that under certain conditions the emotional traders (relying on honed intuition) may overcome the shortcoming of their emotional leanings by fine tuning their intuition in a similar manner to the rationals. They even suggest that, it may be possible for the emotional trader to produce out size returns as compared to the Rationals in such a case.

This suggests that emotive trading when guided with certain Bayesian behaviours with honed intuition (which is being considered a learned skill these days) is a powerful combination. I have viewed hard work , screen time, open conceptualization and a study of history as some of the ways intutition can be tuned (and I continue to do so).

Gigerenzer (who is referenced in the above study) suggests that both simple heuristics and intution play an often misjudged role in decision making (especially when considering decision making in an uncertain world). This gels, as none of thse concepts stand alone or in violation of another, but seemingly as a cohesive, meshed thought process. I found these very constructive (about intuition and the role of simple heuristics in optimising the decision making process). I don't under stand much about heuristics itself yet, but in time hopefully it will get better.

Video

Video

Both the paper and Gerd suggest that these methods by themselves are not superior, but that they should be not be shunned simply becuase they cannot be quantified as easily as other traditional methods of analysis.

There is paper referenced to Andrew Lo about markets, evolution and adaptive behaviour that was also referenced somewhere else (I cannot remember where) and even more cool was the reference to Doyne Farmer's paper on Market Force (that was one of the foundations of his research leading to the Prediction Company discussed earlier.)

Video

My point is this - when I read Brett's papers initally about how figher pilots make decisions in seconds with new unfolding information for survival, or how athletes change their response mid swing or mid action, this clicked with me. On a very simple level, I related that instantly to how I play squash, often changing my decisions mid swing or mid - stroke. How I will evaluate strokes long before I hit them, as my opposer is simply moving and before he hits his shot. In 15years, my decision making in squash has become intuitive. Fluid. I don't have to think any more, it just comes. In my mind, I have been able to isolate instances that my trading has displayed similar characteristics. I have no doubt this is from practice, screen time and focus. In trading, I am no where close to that fluid level, there is too much thinking going on, and not enough honed intuition so far.

I have no doubt that this path will contiue to fine tune itself as long as I don't do anything stupid. I believe most traders would benefit from that, even if they are mechanical types. Problem is, this is no doubt hard to put down on paper, hard to show to others, hard to demonstrate with pretty and squiggly lines. people don't pay sustained attention to it for long enough to see results. And therefore, the lack of interest in this forum to such dry things.

The response to the mind games stuff on other threads is very encouraging though, people are waking up...and that is step one, I think.


Thanks for the links, @Deucalion. Interesting stuff indeed!


I was joking about Bayesian inference, of course. I think you have me confused with someone who wish to guide others to the end of the trading rainbow...

I am a very intuitive thinker, but I have a long way to go in order to understand how that process actually works.

I think in pictures and often find it hard to describe my feelings and thoughts. I classify things based on a intuitive feeling of coarseness and shades of color. I have great difficulty remembering auditory information, and I struggle with separating background noise from speech. It's nearly impossible for me to watch a "noisy" movie without subtitles for me; I experience sensory overload. I also have difficulty focusing on a single stream of information, especially such banalities as small talk, and normally drift in and out of the dialog. However, when I really get interested in something, I experience a sort of "hyperconcentration" where I am oblivious of my surroundings.

However, I'm also mathematically inclined and like to quantify my intuition as much as possible. It's very important to distinguish between emotion and intuition, though. I'm a quite calm, rational human being, but my intuition simply outperforms my other cognitive efforts. Since intuition can't easily be reverse engineered, it sometimes feels as if my brain is a black box. It's kind of like Plato's Cave; I can sense an outline of what is going on, but not completely.

My view has always been that there are complex processes in the unconscious that form my intuition. The more input I feed it, the better it performs. I've never understood why people have such a hard time accepting that theory. Probably it's because most people's intuition is not very fine-tuned. I spent quite a bit of time to be able to recognize and try to eliminate emotional bias. I've never been very emotionally affected, and I've always seen that as a human weakness. When people speak of using feelings to one's advantage, they are usually referring to intuition.

Quickly rereading what I wrote, I can see that I sound like an pretentious, egomaniacal, pompous ass. It seems that I think I am Nietzsche's Übermensch. That's not my intention, and that is also why I rarely speak of such matters. However, I thought it might be fitting for this thread.
To balance out the bragging, I would like to add that I am often quite a slow learner. I usually spend a lot of time getting the fundamentals right, but then I am usually able to take quantum leaps. I spend a lot of time focusing on the on the essence of the more complex aspects, before I even attempt to fully understand the basics. I really don't like the linear approach one is forced to follow in school.

In trading it seems that almost all are focused on very narrow fields, without having a deep understanding bout the interconnected "whole". I think this is a big mistake. It's in the complex relationships between the whole and the parts that the brain has the greatest advantage over machines. I am using a complex evolving system, my brain, to solve and exploit a complex adaptive system.

I'm much more interested in Bayesian probabilities with regard to machine learning. My interested in AI lies in the possibility of trying to quantify an approximation of my intuition. I've wanted to spend more time on this for years, but I haven't been able to actually get started until recently.

Christopher M. Bishop (the author of Amazon.com: Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning (Information Science and Statistics) (9780387310732): Christopher M. Bishop: Books) gave this general talk about bayesian inference from a machine learning viewpoint.
Introduction To Bayesian Inference - videolectures.net

I've been following the Model Thinking course (https://www.coursera.org/course/modelthinking), which I recommend everyone check out. It is basically over now, but one can still log in and download/watch the lectures. Good stuff!
The lecturer, Scott Page, has also written this book: Amazon.com: Complex Adaptive Systems: An Introduction to Computational Models of Social Life (Princeton Studies in Complexity) (9780691127026): John H. Miller, Scott E. Page: Books

I bought a couple of books, but I haven't had the time to work through them yet:

Amazon.com: Networks, Crowds, and Markets: Reasoning About a Highly Connected World (9780521195331): David Easley, Jon Kleinberg: Books

Amazon.com: Networks: An Introduction (9780199206650): Mark Newman: Books

Some interesting videos:




Andre Lo also gave a talk at the Santa Fe Institute a little while ago




If people want to learn more about this stuff, there are a ton of papers the AAAI's website.

Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence

https://www.ai-class.com/

https://www.coursera.org/course/ml

About Me

The problem with all of this, at least for me, is that it's more interesting than trading. So even though a lot of it might not necessarily be applicable to trading, I still want to delve into it. I'm screwed.... I've been working on a way to just focus on my swing trading for some time, and I think this is it...


Deucalion View Post
As cool as the above stuff is to me, this one well and truly blows my mind, not just plain old brain elasticity, but actual neurogensis. Wowsa!

Video

Dr Kandel with the more of the same....Healthy Minds ~ Neurogenesis (#108) | WLIW21 Productions

And the best for last, a true pioneering miscreant....The Molecules of Emotion (Dr Candice Pert)

Video

Funnily, that vid about Pert, reminded me of this...."Win or lose, everybody gets what they want out of the market. Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money". Now, which wise guy said that?

Yeah, neurogenesis is a beautiful thing. Running seems to be a good type of exercise for this. Any exercise that involves balance and speed should be good. I can't wait for this to get more documented. At the rate I'm going, I'm afraid my brain will explode from all the new neurons...

I've been doing Tabata intervals on and off for the past 6 years, it incredibly effective:
https://www.cs.unm.edu/~wneumann/files/guerilla_cardio.pdf

P.S. Wasn't it Seykota who said that?

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I forgot to add that good money and risk management is key if basing trades on one's intuition. I don't really want to get into details about it, but modeling for volatility is really helpful.

Someone sent me a video of an installation based on the patterns in nature:


Aren't patterns wonderful?

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Lornz View Post
Thanks for the links, @Deucalion. Interesting stuff indeed!

I was joking about Bayesian inference, of course. I think you have me confused with someone who wish to guide others to the end of the trading rainbow...

I am a very intuitive thinker, but I have a long way to go in order to understand how that process actually works.

I think in pictures and often find it hard to describe my feelings and thoughts. I classify things based on a intuitive feeling of coarseness and shades of color. I have great difficulty remembering auditory information, and I struggle with separating background noise from speech. It's nearly impossible for me to watch a "noisy" movie without subtitles for me; I experience sensory overload. I also have difficulty focusing on a single stream of information, especially such banalities as small talk, and normally drift in and out of the dialog. However, when I really get interested in something, I experience a sort of "hyperconcentration" where I am oblivious of my surroundings.

However, I'm also mathematically inclined and like to quantify my intuition as much as possible. It's very important to distinguish between emotion and intuition, though. I'm a quite calm, rational human being, but my intuition simply outperforms my other cognitive efforts. Since intuition can't easily be reverse engineered, it sometimes feels as if my brain is a black box. It's kind of like Plato's Cave; I can sense an outline of what is going on, but not completely.

My view has always been that there are complex processes in the unconscious that form my intuition. The more input I feed it, the better it performs. I've never understood why people have such a hard time accepting that theory. Probably it's because most people's intuition is not very fine-tuned. I spent quite a bit of time to be able to recognize and try to eliminate emotional bias. I've never been very emotionally affected, and I've always seen that as a human weakness. When people speak of using feelings to one's advantage, they are usually referring to intuition.

Quickly rereading what I wrote, I can see that I sound like an pretentious, egomaniacal, pompous ass. It seems that I think I am Nietzsche's Übermensch. That's not my intention, and that is also why I rarely speak of such matters. However, I thought it might be fitting for this thread.
To balance out the bragging, I would like to add that I am often quite a slow learner. I usually spend a lot of time getting the fundamentals right, but then I am usually able to take quantum leaps. I spend a lot of time focusing on the on the essence of the more complex aspects, before I even attempt to fully understand the basics. I really don't like the linear approach one is forced to follow in school.....

Google "intuition & emotion" and one comes with a ton of nonsense linking the two and mixing intuition with spirituality, hocus pocus as if it was some magical (mystical?) mumbo jumbo. This typically comes from idiots and pseudo scientists/self-proclaimed experts who quickly want to label and package things neatly into boxes. Just your everyday reductionist BS that pervades our lives. No nuance, no insight, no subtlety, no acceptance of the abstract and the possible.....just living in prose. Utter Banality.

I have a hard time accepting intuition is a pure abstract that one is simply born with. I am firmly in the camp of believing that one's social & learning environment hones it. It is a an important tool for me. I mirror your thoughts on intuition, although I am less inclined with the math side of it. Being a physics student, I am happy when my intuition does not clash or contradict natural logic and rational thought. That's it. Your thoughts on intuition reminded me of this - Intuition -- Psychodynamics and the Science of Intuition

For one thing, this explains better INT"X" rather than just "J". Actually, today I believe my brain is evolving into a similar thought process too. Secondly, I use to scoff at the right brain types, the abstract thinkers, the artisans - believing vainly in the edge of the Rationals. No more - I often admire the artsy types for their abilities to think freely - my rational bit keeps me grounded - so this maybe the best of two worlds so to speak. You can be thinking and perceving at the same time without losing rational & logical thought.

Jung (famously) - "It is fashionable stupidity to regard everything one cannot explain as a fraud."

Mintzberg (less famously) - "It isn't possible to assess the use of intuition by purely logical processes. It is a subconscious process, which no one really understands, except by certain of its characteristics (such as the speed with which it can sometimes produce answers.) Thus the dismissal of intuition as an irrational process is itself irrational, just as embracing it as a process superior to formal logic is itself illogical."

This is a lovely piece on this thought - Einstein On Creative Thinking: Music and the Intuitive Art of Scientific Imagination | Psychology Today

 
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Lornz View Post
............In trading it seems that almost all are focused on very narrow fields, without having a deep understanding bout the interconnected "whole". I think this is a big mistake. It's in the complex relationships between the whole and the parts that the brain has the greatest advantage over machines. I am using a complex evolving system, my brain, to solve and exploit a complex adaptive system.

I'm much more interested in Bayesian probabilities with regard to machine learning. My interested in AI lies in the possibility of trying to quantify an approximation of my intuition. I've wanted to spend more time on this for years, but I haven't been able to actually get started until recently.

The problem with all of this, at least for me, is that it's more interesting than trading. So even though a lot of it might not necessarily be applicable to trading, I still want to delve into it. I'm screwed.... I've been working on a way to just focus on my swing trading for some time, and I think this is it...

Yeah, neurogenesis is a beautiful thing. Running seems to be a good type of exercise for this. Any exercise that involves balance and speed should be good. I can't wait for this to get more documented. At the rate I'm going, I'm afraid my brain will explode from all the new neurons...

P.S. Wasn't it Seykota who said that?


Lornz View Post
I forgot to add that good money and risk management is key if basing trades on one's intuition. I don't really want to get into details about it, but modeling for volatility is really helpful.

Aren't patterns wonderful?

Qualifier - it would be easy to get lost into detail with the stuff you covered, so i am going to use Occam's Razor principle here (imagine my pleasant sense of deja vue when I read this linking Occam's Razor to heuristics, bayes, probablity et al...)

I agree, some people focus trading on a narrow basis. Trading patterns in any market are a result of human beliefs. Beliefs are rational, irrational, instinctual, intellectual, mob driven, predictable, unpredictable....etc etc.......They come from every facet of human endeavour. Anyone that disregards this is missing the bigger picture. In fact, this I would say I abhor that sort of narrow approach - Every trade of mine is constantly evaluating "why" and "why not" together....right from entry to exit. It keeps me out of some simple trades but it also keeps me of trouble (which works for me)

All of this is reflected in everyday patterns. This again comes back to why I only trade EW. I believe on both an intuitive and rational level that human beings will always color the market with their beliefs (no matter how good the machines get). After all, machines are based on our collective learning and knowledge. I also would state that EW is one way of interpreting our belief systems (not the only way but one way that appeals to me holistically).

I would go as far as claiming that simple Bayesian thoughts, optimised by common sense heuristics and pattern recognition are all linked together in this....nothing violates the other. This is poetry to me....I cannot quantify it (yet). But it's there. It's such a pleasant thing to note that when I mentioned intuition and emotion, you followed that with Bayes with machine learning. And pattern recognition. I understand that you are talking about this is a general sense, more than just trading. And this is so true.....pattern recognition rules everything. Trading, our beliefs and responses to all sensory input. This is obviously why pattern traders have a powerful tool (if done well). Obviously with common sense money managemernt. otherwise its just illogical

Once again, I will quote Dr Brett about this aspect - Pattern Recognition: A Core Trading Competency

Big Boris covers this beautifully - Pattern Recognition And Trading Models. Let me be clear, I do not endorse or support or subscribe to him, but his articles on trading and trading behaviour are endearingly simple as he consciously (or unconsciously) covers the mental side of this in often succinct words here - Tiger Shark Trading, Daily Commentary from Professional Traders

You are more keen than I am on the math side of it, trying to quantify it and all. You may find some material here - Intelligent Trading. I found this simple stuff nifty (I assume you are way past this level though) - https://retina.cs.bilkent.edu.tr/papers/patrec_tutorial1.pdf

Unfortunately, I have made zero progress reading about stuff that interests me (in trading and general) about neuroplasticity and genesis, as well as Pattern Recognition as I got sidetracked with a final effort in understanding market profile (both time and volume based) and other volume related studies in trading recently. Ultimately realizing, after much effort that my interpretation of EW already gives me a sledgehammer and the current popularity of this hot new(?) trend of using MP is just that, another trend that will lose its lustre as everyone adopts it (which is also why I said the bit about Occam's Razor in the beginning). Simplicity rules!

Wish I found running interesting, it was/is squash that always clicked me on, physical chess my old man calls it. And so relates to trading as well - anticipation, controlled aggression, sudden violence and frequently unpredictable.

It was indeed the good man himself.......



Edit - 1025EDT: forgot that BBC Mind Changers is back with a new material..............https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b008cy1j

 
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@Deucalion

Thanks for your posts! I was planning on replying now, but something has come up. I'll get it done within the next couple of days...

Cheers!

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Hi Lornz

I was just wondering if you were ever going to post about your trading methodology, the journal-like stuff that you mentioned earlier in the thread. And if you already did, and I missed it, could you point me in the direction?

I know this is your "scattered thoughts" thread and I've tried to follow along and it sure is scattered. but i'm a newbie anyway so its alright. Your book recs will have me going for quite a while anyway.

Thanks

 
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"The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift" - Unknown (attributed incorrectly to AE)

Is Charles Limb kidding or is he fantastic? I think the latter



And of course, something for the miscreant....



Want to be More Creative? Science Suggests Stop Fretting Over Mistakes

"The only joy in life is to throw away all rules, and question everything" - Unknown

Scattered Thoughts?..................hardly.

 
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  #163 (permalink)
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mikusha View Post
Hi Lornz

I was just wondering if you were ever going to post about your trading methodology, the journal-like stuff that you mentioned earlier in the thread. And if you already did, and I missed it, could you point me in the direction?

I know this is your "scattered thoughts" thread and I've tried to follow along and it sure is scattered. but i'm a newbie anyway so its alright. Your book recs will have me going for quite a while anyway.

Thanks

Do your own stinkin' research!

But, to be serious for a brief moment, I doubt I will discuss my trading in more depth. I really tried, but I just don't have it in me. This thread has had far more readers than I intended, and I don't feel that my secrets would be safe here...

However, I will compile some worthwhile resources and speak in generalities like every other poseur on the internet! It's just that my generalizations will be far superior to the junk that all the other clueless idiots spew out...

Stay tuned!

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  #164 (permalink)
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@Deucalion

Thanks for those videos. I love TED.

That last one reminded me of this:



There are several good talks by Mr. Robinson on YouTube. Creativity is underappreciated...

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  #165 (permalink)
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Deucalion View Post
Google "intuition & emotion" and one comes with a ton of nonsense linking the two and mixing intuition with spirituality, hocus pocus as if it was some magical (mystical?) mumbo jumbo. This typically comes from idiots and pseudo scientists/self-proclaimed experts who quickly want to label and package things neatly into boxes. Just your everyday reductionist BS that pervades our lives. No nuance, no insight, no subtlety, no acceptance of the abstract and the possible.....just living in prose. Utter Banality.

I have a hard time accepting intuition is a pure abstract that one is simply born with. I am firmly in the camp of believing that one's social & learning environment hones it. It is a an important tool for me. I mirror your thoughts on intuition, although I am less inclined with the math side of it. Being a physics student, I am happy when my intuition does not clash or contradict natural logic and rational thought. That's it. Your thoughts on intuition reminded me of this - Intuition -- Psychodynamics and the Science of Intuition

For one thing, this explains better INT"X" rather than just "J". Actually, today I believe my brain is evolving into a similar thought process too. Secondly, I use to scoff at the right brain types, the abstract thinkers, the artisans - believing vainly in the edge of the Rationals. No more - I often admire the artsy types for their abilities to think freely - my rational bit keeps me grounded - so this maybe the best of two worlds so to speak. You can be thinking and perceving at the same time without losing rational & logical thought.

Jung (famously) - "It is fashionable stupidity to regard everything one cannot explain as a fraud."

Mintzberg (less famously) - "It isn't possible to assess the use of intuition by purely logical processes. It is a subconscious process, which no one really understands, except by certain of its characteristics (such as the speed with which it can sometimes produce answers.) Thus the dismissal of intuition as an irrational process is itself irrational, just as embracing it as a process superior to formal logic is itself illogical."

This is a lovely piece on this thought - Einstein On Creative Thinking: Music and the Intuitive Art of Scientific Imagination | Psychology Today

I agree. There's so much junk out there that it boggles the mind. I think people are suffering from information overload, leading them to simply pick something and defend it to their death. It's sad, really. All that energy could be spent learning to know oneself, and one's surroundings, with an open mind. I find a lot of that pseudoscience harder to understand than real science, but people won't even give it a chance. Probably because there are far too arrogant people using science to feed their own ego, which ruins it for all of us.

Engineers are often the worst. There seems to be a ton of engineers on trading sites, and they like to tell other what can't be done. They are just displaying their own ignorance; they have no flair for the abstract. I would say that abstract algebra is more useful to a trader. I am, of course, talking about discretionary trading, or possibly an adaptive automated strategy, as I don't classify other approaches as real trading. I'm referring to the art of intuitively capturing the essence of an immensely complex system, not jerking around with infrastructure-based trading. Latency arbitrage is not "true" trading; those kinds of approaches are for the uninspired.

There's so much ego on trading boards; everyone is looking to justify their failing trading careers by claiming superiority in the cyber realm. Or they actually make money, but are simply severely disturbed human beings.
Before I get many hostile replies claiming that I am the most arrogant of all, I would like to reiterate that I am simply a great humorist. It is just that it is so subtle that it's hard to pick up.

I really liked the article about Einstein. It pretty much summed up my thoughts on the subject. Music is also a very visual experience for me and I've spoken about the link between music and trading a few times before. I quickly got corrected, of course, by the people who must use war metaphors and other aggressive approaches to trading.

Yes, I made the transition from J to X in my teens, but I still feel like punching hippies in the face!

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  #166 (permalink)
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Lornz View Post
There's so much ego on trading boards; everyone is looking to justify their failing trading careers by claiming superiority in the cyber realm. Or they actually make money, but are simply severely disturbed human beings.

Post of the day (month?).

I only disagree with being disturbed and making money. That's kinda hard to do (be) both at the same time. Gotta have your shit together to pull the dough in.

"The mind is its own place, and in itself can make a heaven of hell, a hell of heaven." - Milton
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  #167 (permalink)
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Deucalion View Post
Qualifier - it would be easy to get lost into detail with the stuff you covered, so i am going to use Occam's Razor principle here (imagine my pleasant sense of deja vue when I read this linking Occam's Razor to heuristics, bayes, probablity et al...)

I agree, some people focus trading on a narrow basis. Trading patterns in any market are a result of human beliefs. Beliefs are rational, irrational, instinctual, intellectual, mob driven, predictable, unpredictable....etc etc.......They come from every facet of human endeavour. Anyone that disregards this is missing the bigger picture. In fact, this I would say I abhor that sort of narrow approach - Every trade of mine is constantly evaluating "why" and "why not" together....right from entry to exit. It keeps me out of some simple trades but it also keeps me of trouble (which works for me)

All of this is reflected in everyday patterns. This again comes back to why I only trade EW. I believe on both an intuitive and rational level that human beings will always color the market with their beliefs (no matter how good the machines get). After all, machines are based on our collective learning and knowledge. I also would state that EW is one way of interpreting our belief systems (not the only way but one way that appeals to me holistically).

I would go as far as claiming that simple Bayesian thoughts, optimised by common sense heuristics and pattern recognition are all linked together in this....nothing violates the other. This is poetry to me....I cannot quantify it (yet). But it's there. It's such a pleasant thing to note that when I mentioned intuition and emotion, you followed that with Bayes with machine learning. And pattern recognition. I understand that you are talking about this is a general sense, more than just trading. And this is so true.....pattern recognition rules everything. Trading, our beliefs and responses to all sensory input. This is obviously why pattern traders have a powerful tool (if done well). Obviously with common sense money managemernt. otherwise its just illogical

Once again, I will quote Dr Brett about this aspect - Pattern Recognition: A Core Trading Competency

Big Boris covers this beautifully - Pattern Recognition And Trading Models. Let me be clear, I do not endorse or support or subscribe to him, but his articles on trading and trading behaviour are endearingly simple as he consciously (or unconsciously) covers the mental side of this in often succinct words here - Tiger Shark Trading, Daily Commentary from Professional Traders

You are more keen than I am on the math side of it, trying to quantify it and all. You may find some material here - Intelligent Trading. I found this simple stuff nifty (I assume you are way past this level though) - https://retina.cs.bilkent.edu.tr/papers/patrec_tutorial1.pdf

Unfortunately, I have made zero progress reading about stuff that interests me (in trading and general) about neuroplasticity and genesis, as well as Pattern Recognition as I got sidetracked with a final effort in understanding market profile (both time and volume based) and other volume related studies in trading recently. Ultimately realizing, after much effort that my interpretation of EW already gives me a sledgehammer and the current popularity of this hot new(?) trend of using MP is just that, another trend that will lose its lustre as everyone adopts it (which is also why I said the bit about Occam's Razor in the beginning). Simplicity rules!

Wish I found running interesting, it was/is squash that always clicked me on, physical chess my old man calls it. And so relates to trading as well - anticipation, controlled aggression, sudden violence and frequently unpredictable.

It was indeed the good man himself.......

Edit - 1025EDT: forgot that BBC Mind Changers is back with a new material..............BBC - BBC Radio 4 Programmes - Mind Changers


I have always opposed quantifying my trading, mostly because I thought it would be impossible. But, after trading for nearly 10 years, I am bored with trading. I feel that I've mastered it, and I've been struggling with my motivation for the past year. I am not easily motivated by money. That's why I started posting on message boards; it's become so routine that it's mind-numbingly boring. This hopeless feeling of despair sparked my interest in the quantitative side. Although I have my concerns about the viability of my project, I am sure it will be a lot of fun regardless. I always intended to retire from intraday trading before turning 30, but I've spent far too much money traveling the world to be able to justify such a drastic move at this point. However, I hope to sufficiently compound my way out of this meaningless endeavor over the next year or two, or possibly manage to automate it. Mind you, I will still continue my global macro trading until I my early death, which is where the real fun, and money, is. To quote the great PTJ:

"I love trading macro. If trading is like chess, then macro is like three-dimensional chess." (AR)

As an EW guy, you will probably enjoy this:
https://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/13/business/13speculate.html?_r=1&ex=1192939200&en=3fd543193ab577b1&ei=5070&emc=eta1

I assume that you've seen this:
History’s Hidden Engine

I don't understand the renaissance of MP. It's been around forever, why has it suddenly caught on? Probably because it stopped working! EW talks about waves, while MP revolves around rotations. I liked the compact charting MP offered, but I always split the TPOs. The distribution aspect of MP is meaningless, but MP itself charting isolates some metrics that can be made useful. Most (?) used it in combination with the Liquidity Data Bank, but I hardly see that mentioned. However, all of those things are just tools to filter the markets (aside from the LDB, which provides additional information), and once one gets a feel for the underlying principles they become irrelevant. People thinking about this theory vs that theory are deluding themselves; there are only underlying processes and various attempts to decipher them. The only right answer is what makes the most money at any given time. There is no point in growing emotionally attached to any particular market philosophy. I might be completely wrong, of course, but I generally look at the markets as dangerously close to random most of the time. I rarely have a clue about what's going on. But, when I do, I use it for what it's worth. That's enough to make quite a decent living, but people seem to long for total enlightenment. To each his own: I've developed my own approach and I ain't sharing.

By the way, thanks for making me aware of "Mind Changers", it seems interesting.

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  #168 (permalink)
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I just wanted to follow up my psychotic rambling with this:

Never spend too much time trying to learn a theory that describes the market, study the market itself instead. Start with the ridiculously simple, and then add and remove complexity in a never-ending quest for an ounce of understanding.

IMHO, people trade too often. Try to isolate certain conditions and build from there. If I could pick only one thing, it would have to be my spreadsheet. It is a brilliant piece of art, if I am allowed to say so myself...

Most important of all, to all the lurkers out there, don't listen to anyone on online message boards. Not even me. Fuck me! Who am I to tell others what is right?

I feel that this journal has nearly reached its natural end.... I will try to give it an honorable kiss of death in the near future.

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  #169 (permalink)
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Anagami View Post
Post of the day (month?).

I only disagree with being disturbed and making money. That's kinda hard to do (be) both at the same time. Gotta have your shit together to pull the dough in.

Thanks! I had to put that in there because I can't know for certain. I can think of a poster or two on ET that might fit the latter description.

It's very clear that nearly everyone that posts on these boards are not making consistent gains, excluding the premium sellers that works for scraps.

How's your Dual N-Back training going? Are you still experiencing positive effects?

What about your paid thing, @Deucalion? Is it worth it?

I'm thinking about getting my parents to start doing mental exercises, and I'm contemplating which one to chose. Does the IQ Mindware require a certain level of English proficiency? I saw a screenshot of stuff like "Lornz is to cool as @Deucalion is to uncool"...

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  #170 (permalink)
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Lornz View Post
..........
Before I get many hostile replies claiming that I am the most arrogant of all, I would like to reiterate that I am simply a great humorist. It is just that it is so subtle that it's hard to pick up.

I really liked the article about Einstein. It pretty much summed up my thoughts on the subject. Music is also a very visual experience for me and I've spoken about the link between music and trading a few times before....

Dearest Lornz...well I've enjoyed your arrogance, it's always made me smile...
so thank you..
and thank you too for starting that music thread "song(s) of the day"..
One of my favourite threads...!

kind regards

"Every moment I wake up I realize I know nothing, and then I smile..." zt379
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  #171 (permalink)
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zt379 View Post
Dearest Lornz...well I've enjoyed your arrogance, it's always made me smile...
so thank you..
and thank you too for starting that music thread "song(s) of the day"..
One of my favourite threads...!

kind regards

Wow, thanks for the kind words! I like to think that there is an intelligent, sensitive human being buried beneath all of flaws; I'll never give up my search for him...

That thread is one of the main reasons I visit this place. I want to thank both you and the other contributors for broadening my musical horizon. Music is such a beautiful thing!

Cheers!

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  #172 (permalink)
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Lornz View Post
Thanks! I had to put that in there because I can't know for certain. I can think of a poster or two on ET that might fit the latter description.

It's very clear that nearly everyone that posts on these boards are not making consistent gains, excluding the premium sellers that works for scraps.

How's your Dual N-Back training going? Are you still experiencing positive effects?

What about your paid thing, @Deucalion? Is it worth it?

I'm thinking on getting my parents to start doing some mental exercising, and I'm contemplating which one to chose. Does the IQ Mindware require a certain level of English proficiency? I saw a screenshot of stuff like "Lornz is to cool as @Deucalion is to uncool"...

IQM's High IQPro is not bad. A better "stone" for sharpening the WM (it claims to target Gf, I don't agree with that since Jaeggi's original study already made a disclaimer about targeting Gf indirectly), but a stone nevertheless. All these games try to help you remember "more" things. Rudimentary English is required. And hope that it sticks...crudely speaking. Very inelegant.

So my reco is none of them. Instead I found the toy that I prefer....and it's Merzinch's Posit Science. More elegant. Does it work?...I believe it does.....quality over quantity......more sensory.

Brain Training Exercises & Program Goals | Posit Science

As for positive effects, my renewed test revealed minor changes only with IQM - so either my brain is hopeless, or already optimised for these plebeian games. Can't improve perfect...

Video: InSight Brian Fitness

Let me add - at the very least their blog is an illuminating bookmark on my browser....http://www.brainhq.com/blog/

 
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Lornz View Post
But, after trading for nearly 10 years, I am bored with trading. I feel that I've mastered it, and I've been struggling with my motivation for the past year.

This pretty much describes me, but in regards to poker. Hence why I'm here trying to learn a new field


Lornz View Post
But, to be serious for a brief moment, I doubt I will discuss my trading in more depth. I really tried, but I just don't have it in me. This thread has had far more readers than I intended, and I don't feel that my secrets would be safe here...

Fair enough. Perhaps I can ask some things and you can just respond how you want..

Lornz View Post
Do your own stinkin' research!

I've done a fair amount of reading. I struggle to find anything worthwhile. At the same time, who am I to decide what is worthwhile? Its just that nothing I find can provide me with a foothold to grab onto and form a base for trading the market.

In past posts, both you and Fat Tails have recommended learning the structure of the markets instead of reading worthless TA material. The ONLY thing that has made sense to me that I've read so far is this pdf: Larry Harris - Winners and Losers of the Zero Sum Game (gonna move onto the Market Microstructure book next). Probably because of my poker background, it just makes sense to me to look at things from an exploitive point of view. Who am I exploiting? Where does the money come from?

So the pdf was very interesting explaining the different types of participants and what their goals in the market is. However, I'm still finding it difficult to use this information to put together a trading plan. The stuff about price/volume relationship, reading the tape and the dom, that has made the most sense to me. But when it comes time to define entries or interpret the structure of the market and which is more likely long/short, I find all the information about the participants kinda goes out the window.

Any guidance would be appreicated

 
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  #174 (permalink)
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Deucalion View Post
IQM's High IQPro is not bad. A better "stone" for sharpening the WM (it claims to target Gf, I don't agree with that since Jaeggi's original study already made a disclaimer about targeting Gf indirectly), but a stone nevertheless. All these games try to help you remember "more" things. Rudimentary English is required. And hope that it sticks...crudely speaking. Very inelegant.

So my reco is none of them. Instead I found the toy that I prefer....and it's Merzinch's Posit Science. More elegant. Does it work?...I believe it does.....quality over quantity......more sensory.

Brain Training Exercises & Program Goals | Posit Science

As for positive effects, my renewed test revealed minor changes only with IQM - so either my brain is hopeless, or already optimised for these plebeian games. Can't improve perfect...

Video: InSight Brian Fitness

Let me add - at the very least their blog is an illuminating bookmark on my browser....Posit Science Blog - Brain Fitness & Brain Training | Posit Science Corporation

Thanks! One thing is improving a well-functioning brain, another is to try to prevent mental decline. I'm primarily interested in the latter. Just doing simple stuff like mental arithmetic, or trying to remember, after glancing for less then a second, the license plate, both forwards and backwards of each car that pass by while driving. I also enjoyed arriving in a new city, studying a map in my hotel room and then take a taxi to somewhere deep in the "jungle". It's fun trying to find one's way home. Even more fun if there's a few bars on the way. Thankfully a few beer doesn't hurt:
Creative Problem Solving: Forget the Focus

Neurotechnology | High Resolution EEG | Neuroimaging

I'll check out the Posit blog later!

@Anagami Still waiting for your thoughts on the matter. Are you still doing Dual N-Back?

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  #175 (permalink)
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mikusha View Post
This pretty much describes me, but in regards to poker. Hence why I'm here trying to learn a new field

OK. I used to play a little poker, but my focus was mainly on sports betting before I switched to trading. I like playing live, but I prefer trading to playing poker on the internet.

Fair enough. Perhaps I can ask some things and you can just respond how you want..

I'm not making any promises, but generally it doesn't hurt to ask.

I've done a fair amount of reading. I struggle to find anything worthwhile. At the same time, who am I to decide what is worthwhile? Its just that nothing I find can provide me with a foothold to grab onto and form a base for trading the market.

Yes, I get what you're saying. Most of what is out there is junk written by salesmen who never managed to trade.

In past posts, both you and Fat Tails have recommended learning the structure of the markets instead of reading worthless TA material. The ONLY thing that has made sense to me that I've read so far is this pdf: Larry Harris - Winners and Losers of the Zero Sum Game (gonna move onto the Market Microstructure book next). Probably because of my poker background, it just makes sense to me to look at things from an exploitive point of view. Who am I exploiting? Where does the money come from?

So the pdf was very interesting explaining the different types of participants and what their goals in the market is. However, I'm still finding it difficult to use this information to put together a trading plan. The stuff about price/volume relationship, reading the tape and the dom, that has made the most sense to me. But when it comes time to define entries or interpret the structure of the market and which is more likely long/short, I find all the information about the participants kinda goes out the window.

Any guidance would be appreicated

Yes, Harris has written some good stuff. It's important to think about these things, but not necessarily easy to put into practice. There are several approaches to trading. My trading is mainly based on getting a read on the market and only trade when truly feel that it's worth it. People trade too much. Trade less and try to ride the winners for what their worth. Get out quickly if it doesn't work out. As you are a gambler, try to find a pdf of this book: Amazon.com: Secrets of Professional Turf Betting (9780685137529): Bacon: Books

I also included a collection of articles by Toby Crabel. That's a decent place to start.

Just to clarify, I'm not revealing anything about how I trade or claim that the specifics of the material is any good. But I think it might be a better place to start than all of the standard TA mumbo jumbo.

I started by reading this: Amazon.com: CBOT Handbook of Futures and Options (9780071457514): Cbot: Books , but it is now better to read this: Amazon.com: The CME Group Risk Management Handbook: Products and Applications (Wiley Finance) (9780470137710): CME Group, John W. Labuszewski, John E. Nyhoff, Richard Co, Paul E. Peterson, Leo Melamed: Books

I only read a book on balance sheet analysis and one about macroeconomics when I first started. Then I read Klarman's "Margin of Safety". Later I enjoyed reading some of the old books from the early 1900s -- mostly for historical reasons. Jesse Livermore's original 1940 "How I Trade In Stocks" truly captures the essence of being a speculator.

I find great parallels between sports/horse betting and trading. Ziemba has written a lot of stuff that applies to all speculative ventures, but his stuff requires some mathematical knowledge.

Also try to find Mark Fishers seminars. They have been posted before, and maybe a kind soul will reupload them. I'm not sure where I have my copies, but I'm pretty certain @Fat Tails or @mfbreakout have them available. I challenge them to give something back to the community. Especially @Fat Tails! He has always tried his best to avoid helping people...

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  #176 (permalink)
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Lornz View Post
I find great parallels between sports/horse betting and trading. Ziemba has written a lot of stuff that applies to all speculative ventures, but his stuff requires some mathematical knowledge.

Also try to find Mark Fishers seminars. They have been posted before, and maybe a kind soul will reupload them. I'm not sure where I have my copies, but I'm pretty certain @Fat Tails or @mfbreakout have them available.

No I don't. I have only worked through his book "The Logical Trader".


Yes, there are parallels between trading and gambling. I recently bought an interesting book, think it was recommended by Edward O. Thorp, requires a bit of mathematics. Have only started to read it, too early to make a substantial comment, but I really like it.

Amazon.com: The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic, Second Edition (9780123749406): Richard A. Epstein: Books


Lornz View Post
I challenge them to give something back to the community. Especially @Fat Tails! He has always tried his best to avoid helping people...

Do you really think that self-declared speculators and philosophers can have any impact on my well-being?

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  #177 (permalink)
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Fat Tails View Post
No I don't. I have only worked through his book "The Logical Trader".

Hmm, now you made me do a search for the post: . I guess I assumed this meant that you downloaded them. I apologize for the faulty inference.

Yes, there are parallels between trading and gambling. I recently bought an interesting book, think it was recommended by Edward O. Thorp, requires a bit of mathematics. Have only started to read it, too early to make a substantial comment, but I really like it.

Amazon.com: The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic, Second Edition (9780123749406): Richard A. Epstein: Books

Thanks, I'll check it out. I have a great deal of respect for Mr. Thorp. I've posted it a few times before, but he has put up all (?) of his articles and books on his website: Edward O. Thorp . Like I mentioned in my post, Ziemba's work (Publications and Book Chapters) is excellent. I've been trying to hunt down all his old books and articles, but my collection is incomplete. If anyone reading this thread has some of the rarities, please inform me promptly! Parimutuel betting is my hobby...

Do you really think that self-declared speculators and philosophers can have any impact on my well-being?

Not the slightest! I still wanted to pay you a compliment, though!

Please write a review of the book when you're done....

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  #178 (permalink)
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Lornz View Post
Thanks! One thing is improving a well-functioning brain, another is to try to prevent mental decline. I'm primarily interested in the latter. Just doing simple stuff like mental arithmetic, or trying to remember, after glancing for less then a second, the license plate, both forwards and backwards of each car that pass by while driving. I also enjoyed arriving in a new city, studying a map in my hotel room and then take a taxi to somewhere deep in the "jungle". It's fun trying to find one's way home. Even more fun if there's a few bars on the way. Thankfully a few beer doesn't hurt:
Creative Problem Solving: Forget the Focus

Neurotechnology | High Resolution EEG | Neuroimaging

I'll check out the Posit blog later!

@Anagami Still waiting for your thoughts on the matter. Are you still doing Dual N-Back?

Hey @Lornz,

still doing N-backing.

After Dual 3B, I graduated myself to Triple 3B... which proved to be tough and I dropped back down as I felt it wasn't optimal training. So I'm back at Dual 3B, though I feel I mastered that one (around 90% hit rate when I concentrate hard)... not sure if I should go to Triple 3B or Dual 4B next. I'll probably try triple again as I'm interested in improving my 'width' thinking rather than 'length'.

The interesting part is the effects.

Dreams are quite vivid, I remember them in detail... which I find annoying when I wake up in the morning. Instead of being happily oblivious about my subconscious issues, I am now aware. Probably good for me. Also, sometimes I dream in bright colors now and remember numbers in my dreams (4 8 15 16 23 42 ).

Huge improvements in short term memory. I casually glance at license plates while driving and remember them effortlessly days later. As for IQ I'm not sure. I'll do a test after a few months of practice and see if there's some points gain (typically, I've read people reporting 5-10 point gains).

Will post an update in a couple of weeks again.

"The mind is its own place, and in itself can make a heaven of hell, a hell of heaven." - Milton
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Speaking of creating thinking... most people reading this thread would likely enjoy:



The book is all about 'out of the box' thinking processes. Useful and entertaining.

"The mind is its own place, and in itself can make a heaven of hell, a hell of heaven." - Milton
 
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Many parallels between trading and gambling. I have done a little bit of research on sports betting, and they are very close as well. Especially since most of the real winners (sharps) at sports betting have extensive models which they've backtested. These are the 'value investors' who pounce on bad lines that the books offer. You have steam-chasers who basically wait for those sharps to move the lines, and then look for a bookie that is slow to update his in line with the broad market. Those players are the 'front runners'. You have arbers who keep money on all books. You have traders who buy/sell odds on betting exchanges. Its interesting because I just got into sports betting maybe 6 months ago but I'm glad I did, because it helps me make comparisons with trading.

thanks for the links, I'll check them out.

 
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Amazing news!



edX - Home

https://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/03/education/harvard-and-mit-team-up-to-offer-free-online-courses.html?_r=1

MIT and Harvard announce edX | Harvard Gazette

https://news.mit.edu/press

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Anagami View Post
Hey @Lornz,

still doing N-backing.

After Dual 3B, I graduated myself to Triple 3B... which proved to be tough and I dropped back down as I felt it wasn't optimal training. So I'm back at Dual 3B, though I feel I mastered that one (around 90% hit rate when I concentrate hard)... not sure if I should go to Triple 3B or Dual 4B next. I'll probably try triple again as I'm interested in improving my 'width' thinking rather than 'length'.

The interesting part is the effects.

Dreams are quite vivid, I remember them in detail... which I find annoying when I wake up in the morning. Instead of being happily oblivious about my subconscious issues, I am now aware. Probably good for me. Also, sometimes I dream in bright colors now and remember numbers in my dreams (4 8 15 16 23 42 ).

Huge improvements in short term memory. I casually glance at license plates while driving and remember them effortlessly days later. As for IQ I'm not sure. I'll do a test after a few months of practice and see if there's some points gain (typically, I've read people reporting 5-10 point gains).

Will post an update in a couple of weeks again.

Thanks for sharing!

Yes, I'm also interested in the potential effects of increasing the number of stimuli vs increasing the lookback period.

Haha! Yes, remembering one's dream can be frightening at first. but it's important to realize that sleep is a way of healing psychological trauma. All those issues lurking under the surface that one is not necessarily even aware of. There's been several experiments showing that sleep is an important part of therapy and general well-being. Sleep and Mental Health - Harvard Health Publications

I just used your numbers to buy a lottery ticket; you better be right!

I'm glad to hear that your memory has significantly improved. There actually was an article on Oddbjørn By (Oddbjørn By) in the paper a few days ago. The article mentioned that the current US memory champion, and the founder of Climb for Memory , Nelson Dellis, got started by reading By's (Amazon.com: Memo: The Easiest Way to Improve Your Memory (9780980326901): Oddbjorn By, Siri J Egeland: Books)book. His grandmother had Alzheimer's disease, and he was afraid he would suffer the same fate. He actually memorized deck of cards while climbing Mount Everest. That's pretty hard core!

All those guys mainly use "The Journey Method", I think. It's pretty fascinating. I've never done any memory exercises, but my memory has always been quite good. It'd be interesting to see how far I can take it. I've always found memory techniques to be kind of corny, though...

I started using "Brain Workshop" again yesterday, and I'm excited to see if I get an equally big boost this time around. I did a lot of mental exercises last year, but stopped, due to time constraints, when I started studying financial mathematics. I have concluded that going to school is detrimental to one's mental health!

I'll look forward to your next update.

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Lornz View Post
I feel that this journal has nearly reached its natural end.... I will try to give it an honorable kiss of death in the near future.

Loved to read this thread - blogged by a scattered thinker.
(I think the thread is not dying so quickly )

Some old Dom Pérignon or some LSD (Love Such Disease)
may help to prolong this trip.

GFIs1

PS: You asked if I met Alb Hoffman personally - I didn't as
he lived his last 30 years very privately...

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GFIs1 View Post
Loved to read this thread - blogged by a scattered thinker.
(I think the thread is not dying so quickly )

Some old Dom Pérignon or some LSD (Love Such Disease)
may help to prolong this trip.

GFIs1

PS: You asked if I met Alb Hoffman personally - I didn't as
he lived his last 30 years very privately...

Thanks for the kind words!

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Are there any chemists reading this thread? Or maybe someone knows one? I would be forever grateful if someone could help with some technical questions regarding testing....

This means a lot to me and I'd really appreciate some help...

Thanks!

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New Which Way Next? on Wednesday:

Singularity University | Which Way Next?

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The 65th CFA Institute Annual Conference has just begun. There will (hopefully) be some interesting webcasts over the next few days:

Live Stream Sessions | CFA Institute Annual Conference

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Fantastic.....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
 
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@Anagami

How is your N N-Back training going?

I've been doing Triple Dual-Back for some time, and it has done wonders for my concentration. I'm unsure if I'm going to move to quadruple width, or triple length. Adding color (which is what I did),makes me feel that I'm utilizing more of my brain; it becomes multi-dimensional. I have ADD and OCD, but lately I've been reading pages and pages without any trouble at all. I can also hear the layers of music more distinctly. It's like I've become my old self again, before OCD ruined my ability to concentrate (which was already poor due to ADD). It's a wonderful feeling not having to force myself to concentrate anymore. It all comes so naturally, just like in my teens.

It's an amazing thing, and I really regret not continuing doing it when I first came across it a couple of years ago. I'm nearly addicted now; it gives me a natural high. It's funny, because I was the one who posted about it, but I never really did it systematically. It was only after reading about your progress that I found the motivation to give it a fair shot. Thanks!

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@Anagami

How is your N N-Back training going?

I've been doing Triple Dual-Back for some time, and it has done wonders for my concentration. I'm unsure if I'm going to move to quadruple width, or triple length. Adding color (which is what I did),makes me feel that I'm utilizing more of my brain; it becomes multi-dimensional. I have ADD and OCD, but lately I've been reading pages and pages without any trouble at all. I can also hear the layers of music more distinctly. It's like I've become my old self again, before OCD ruined my ability to concentrate (which was already poor due to ADD). It's a wonderful feeling not having to force myself to concentrate anymore. It all comes so naturally, just like in my teens.

It's an amazing thing, and I really regret not continuing doing it when I first came across it a couple of years ago. I'm nearly addicted now; it gives me a natural high. It's funny, because I was the one who posted about it, but I never really did it systematically. It was only after reading about your progress that I found the motivation to give it a fair shot. Thanks!

Hey @Lornz
That's great man! I have been doing Triple 3-Back (position, color, shape)... which is tough! (at least for me ). Adding a shape to the mix is another ball game, but a great workout that makes my head feel 'funny' afterwards.
I hit a wall in my training, not because of mental ability but because I got addicted to Backgammon and have been playing something like 12 hours every day so didn't have much time for N-backing lately. Making rapid progress in that game, I'm loving it!! Been looking for a perfect game for a long time... chess, go, poker, reversi, hex...etc. I feel like I found it in backgammon!! It's a PERFECT GAME... emulates life so well, every outcome has probability, sharp reversals, with lots of room for skill, both strategic and tactical. So much fun. I don't know if there are any other board game addicts here on futures.io (formerly BMT).


Additionally, I have discovered bond futures and it seems like a great market for my trading style... so been looking back over 100s of charts and having a blast too. I'm doing well on ES, but ZB seems even better. Always dismissed it in the past, but starting to like it a lot.


Life is simple for me right now:

Eat, sleep, trade, and play backgammon.

And oh yes, spend time with my fiancee.

"The mind is its own place, and in itself can make a heaven of hell, a hell of heaven." - Milton
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I should add that if any of you are interested in checking out Backgammon , GNU Backgammon is a great free software to try. Also, more about the game here.

"The mind is its own place, and in itself can make a heaven of hell, a hell of heaven." - Milton
 
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Somebody sent me a PM about N-backing, so I figure I post the links here for everyone.

N-back Wiki
Dual N-back FAQ
Brain Workshop - Free N-Backing Software
N-Backing for Android

All you need to get started.

"The mind is its own place, and in itself can make a heaven of hell, a hell of heaven." - Milton
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mikusha View Post
Many parallels between trading and gambling. I have done a little bit of research on sports betting, and they are very close as well. Especially since most of the real winners (sharps) at sports betting have extensive models which they've backtested. These are the 'value investors' who pounce on bad lines that the books offer. You have steam-chasers who basically wait for those sharps to move the lines, and then look for a bookie that is slow to update his in line with the broad market. Those players are the 'front runners'. You have arbers who keep money on all books. You have traders who buy/sell odds on betting exchanges. Its interesting because I just got into sports betting maybe 6 months ago but I'm glad I did, because it helps me make comparisons with trading.

thanks for the links, I'll check them out.

Nice analogies. Most of my sports betting experience has translated better to swing/position trading, which is what I find most fun. I am what you refer to as a "value investor".

Sadly, I'm also quite good at trading order flow, so I've been a slave to the less intellectual side of trading for the past few years. I intend to retire from it soon, as I am bored to death with it.

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Anagami View Post
Hey @Lornz
That's great man! I have been doing Triple 3-Back (position, color, shape)... which is tough! (at least for me ). Adding a shape to the mix is another ball game, but a great workout that makes my head feel 'funny' afterwards.
I hit a wall in my training, not because of mental ability but because I got addicted to Backgammon and have been playing something like 12 hours every day so didn't have much time for N-backing lately. Making rapid progress in that game, I'm loving it!! Been looking for a perfect game for a long time... chess, go, poker, reversi, hex...etc. I feel like I found it in backgammon!! It's a PERFECT GAME... emulates life so well, every outcome has probability, sharp reversals, with lots of room for skill, both strategic and tactical. So much fun. I don't know if there are any other board game addicts here on futures.io (formerly BMT).

Additionally, I have discovered bond futures and it seems like a great market for my trading style... so been looking back over 100s of charts and having a blast too. I'm doing well on ES, but ZB seems even better. Always dismissed it in the past, but starting to like it a lot.

Life is simple for me right now:

Eat, sleep, trade, and play backgammon.

And oh yes, spend time with my fiancee.

I apologize for my absurdly delayed response, but I am an asshole. If I don't reply immediately, it tends to take a while. I recently replied to an 8 month old PM, so you should probably feel honored rather than insulted.

It's funny that you mention backgammon, because I had a discussing about board games with a friend of mine right before you posted your message. I used to play a lot checkers as a kid, and a little chess. I've always regretted not playing more chess, but my grandfather died when I was fairly young, and I didn't have anyone to play with. I've never played backgammon, but I tend to find most type of board and card games fun. I'm a decent poker player, but I've spent more hours playing hearts, bridge and various other non-poker card games. I think that experience prepared me for trading. It's interesting to note that a game-playing background is usually viewed as favorable by employers in the trading industry. Playing such games certainly does promote strategic thinking. I've been trying to find a good electronic checkers game, but no such luck yet. Have you played Go?

Bond futures are, to my knowledge, the best markets for trading off the DOM. They are a secret hidden in plain sight! I just use the indices for swing trading now, as the order book is too algo-infested for my taste. However, I mostly trade momentum these days, so I tend to stick with rangy instruments. I'm too sick of intraday trading to sit as glued to the screen as I used.

Is your avatar a picture of of your fiancee? If so, I must say that she, if you allow me to quite superficial for a moment, is very beautiful!

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extreme pleasures watching them.... however long.... LOL

thx for the post, lornz.

 
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Mozart, Newton and You?

"Inspiration is needed in geometry, just as much as in poetry." -- Alexander Pushkin

Creativity is essential to particle physics, cosmology, and to mathematics, and to other fields of science, just as it is to its more widely acknowledged beneficiaries -- the arts and humanities. Science epitomizes the extra richness that can enhance creative endeavors that take place in constrained settings. The inspiration and imagination involved are easily overlooked amid the logical rules. However, math and technology were themselves discovered and formulated by people who were thinking creatively about how to synthesize ideas -- and by those who accidentally came upon an interesting result and had the creative alertness to recognize its value.

OUTLYING TALENT

Lately it has become fashionable to question innate creativity and talent and attribute success solely to early exposure and practice. In a New York Times column, David Brooks summarized a couple of recent books on the subject this way: "What Mozart had, we now believe, was the same thing Tiger Woods had -- the ability to focus for long periods of time and a father intent on improving his skills." Picasso was another example he used. Picasso was the son of a classical artist and in his privileged environment was already making brilliant paintings as a child. Bill Gates too had exceptional opportunities. In his recent book, Outliers, Malcolm Gladwell tells how Bill Gates's Seattle high school was one of the few to have a computer club, and how Gates subsequently had the opportunity to use the computers at the University of Washington for hours on end. Gladwell goes on to suggest that Gates's opportunities were more important to his success than his drive and talent.

Indeed, focusing and practice at an early stage so that the methods and techniques become hard wired is unquestionably part of many creative backgrounds. So Brooks and Gladwell undoubtedly are correct in some respects. Though skill and talent matter, they won't get you very far without the honing of skills and intensity that comes with dedication and practice. But opportunities at a young age and systematic preparation are not the whole story.

SCALING A HILL OF BEANS

Practice, technical training, and drive are essential to scientific research. But they are not all that is required. Autistics -- not to mention some academics and far too many bureaucrats -- frequently demonstrate high-level technical skills yet lack creativity and imagination. All it takes is a trip to the movies these days to witness the limitations of drive and technical achievements without the support of these other qualities. Scenes in which animated creatures fight other animated creatures in hard-to-follow sequences might be impressive accomplishments in themselves, but they rarely possess the creative energy needed to fully engage many of us -- even with the light and noise, I frequently fall asleep.

For me, the most absorbing films are those that address big questions and real ideas but embody them in small examples that we can appreciate and comprehend. The movie Casablanca might be about patriotism and love and war and loyalty but even though Rick warns Ilsa that "it doesn't take much to see that the problems of three little people don't amount to a hill of beans in this crazy world," those three people are the reason I'm captivated by the movie (plus, of course, Peter Lorre and Claude Rains).

In science, too, the right questions often come from having both the big and the small pictures in mind. Identifying the big questions is rarely sufficient, since it's often the solutions to the smaller ones that lead to progress. A grain of sand can indeed reveal an entire world, as William Blake, and Galileo, understood so early on.

An almost indispensable skill for any creative person is the ability to pose the right questions. Creative people identify promising, exciting, and, most important, accessible routes to progress -- and eventually formulate the questions correctly. The best science frequently combines an awareness of broad and significant problems with focus on an apparently small issue or detail that someone very much wants to solve or understand. Sometimes these little problems or inconsistencies turn out to be the clues to big advances.

The cracks and discrepancies that might seem too small or obscure for some can be the portal to new concepts and ideas for those who look at the problem the right way.

Einstein didn't even initially set out to understand gravity. He was trying to understand the implications of the theory of electromagnetism that had only recently been developed. He focused on aspects that were peculiar or even inconsistent with what everyone thought were the symmetries of space and time and ended up revolutionizing the way we think. Einstein believed it should all make sense, and he had the breadth of vision and persistence to extract how that was possible.

Many of the creative people I know also have the ability to hold a number of questions and ideas in their heads at the same time. Anyone can look things up using Google, but unless you can put facts and ideas together in interesting ways, you aren't likely to find anything new.
A lot of people prefer to work linearly. But this means that once they are stuck or find that the path is uncertain, their pursuit is over. Like many writers and artists, scientists make progress in patches. We might understand some pieces of a puzzle, but temporarily set aside others we don't yet understand, hoping to fill in these gaps later on.

Space adventurers, but artists and scientists, too, try to "boldly go where no one has gone before." But the boldness isn't random or haphazard and it doesn't ignore earlier achievements, even when the new territory involves new ideas or anticipates crazy-seeming experiments that appear to be unrealistic at first. Investigators do their best to be prepared. That's what rules, equations, and instincts about consistency are good for. These are the harnesses that protect us when traversing new domains.

Scientists who were very adventuresome in their ideas could also be very cautious when presenting them. Two of the most influential, Isaac Newton and Charles Darwin, waited quite a while before sharing their great ideas with the outside world. Charles Darwin's research spanned many years, and he published the Origin of Species only after completing extensive observational research. Newton's Principia presented a theory of gravity that was well over a decade in development. He waited to publish until he had completed a satisfactory proof that bodies of arbitrary spatial extent (not just pointlike objects) obey an inverse square law. The proof of this law, which says gravity decreases as the square of the distance from the center of an object, led Newton to develop the mathematics of calculus.

The expression "thinking outside the box" doesn't come from getting outside your work cubicle (as I once thought might be the case), but from the nine-dots problem, which asks how to connect nine dots with four lines without lifting your pen. No solution to the ninedots problem exists if you have to keep your pen inside the confines of the square, but no one told you that was a requirement. Going "outside the box" yields the solution. At this point you might realize you can reformulate the problem in a number of other ways too. If you use thick dots, you can use three lines. If you fold the paper (or use a really thick line, as a young girl apparently suggested to the problem's creator), you can use just one line.

These solutions would only be cheating if they ignored additional constraints. Competition also plays an important role -- in science as well as in most any other creative endeavor. The artist Jeff Koons told me that when he was young, his sister did art -- and he realized that he could do it better. The chef David Chang expressed a similar thought a little more bluntly. His reaction after going to a new restaurant is, "That's delicious. Why didn't I think of that?"

Research is an organic process. We don't necessarily always know where we are headed, but experiments and theory serve as valuable guides. Preparation and skill, concentration and perseverance, asking the right questions, and cautiously trusting our imaginations will all help us in our search for understanding. So will open minds, conversations with others, wanting to do better than our predecessors or peers, and believing there are answers. No matter what the motivation, and independently of the particular skills that might come into play, scientists will continue to investigate inward and outward -- and look forward to learning about the other ingenious mechanisms the universe has in store.

Lisa Randall: Mozart, Newton and You?

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extreme pleasures watching them.... however long.... LOL

thx for the post, lornz.

Thanks! I thought the Forex trading video from 1985 was pretty cool. Niall Ferguson has made several interesting documentary series. This is also pretty cool: Video: The Crash of 1929 | Watch American Experience Online | PBS Video

A few more:











I apologize for spamming my own thread...

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Good article. Having talent and liking to use the talent very separate things. I knew a brilliant illustrator in school. He could draw anything but hated doing it. Partly because of his father who pushed him into something he did not want to do; This goes contrary to what the article says. Plus, he told me once there was no joy in drawing; it was boring and repetitive. He currently works as a manager at a manufacturing plant.

You also have to wonder how much talent goes unrecognized. If you don’t have people around you who point out how good you are at something or if you are never exposed to what you are good at then you will go through life not knowing. I think talent shows you see on TV are a good example of this.






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Mozart, Newton and You?


nosce te ipsum

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