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Scattered thoughts...
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Scattered thoughts...

  #161 (permalink)
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Hi Lornz

I was just wondering if you were ever going to post about your trading methodology, the journal-like stuff that you mentioned earlier in the thread. And if you already did, and I missed it, could you point me in the direction?

I know this is your "scattered thoughts" thread and I've tried to follow along and it sure is scattered. but i'm a newbie anyway so its alright. Your book recs will have me going for quite a while anyway.

Thanks

 
  #162 (permalink)
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Scattered thoughts?

"The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift" - Unknown (attributed incorrectly to AE)

Is Charles Limb kidding or is he fantastic? I think the latter



And of course, something for the miscreant....



Want to be More Creative? Science Suggests Stop Fretting Over Mistakes

"The only joy in life is to throw away all rules, and question everything" - Unknown

Scattered Thoughts?..................hardly.


Last edited by Deucalion; April 30th, 2012 at 07:23 PM.
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  #163 (permalink)
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mikusha View Post
Hi Lornz

I was just wondering if you were ever going to post about your trading methodology, the journal-like stuff that you mentioned earlier in the thread. And if you already did, and I missed it, could you point me in the direction?

I know this is your "scattered thoughts" thread and I've tried to follow along and it sure is scattered. but i'm a newbie anyway so its alright. Your book recs will have me going for quite a while anyway.

Thanks

Do your own stinkin' research!

But, to be serious for a brief moment, I doubt I will discuss my trading in more depth. I really tried, but I just don't have it in me. This thread has had far more readers than I intended, and I don't feel that my secrets would be safe here...

However, I will compile some worthwhile resources and speak in generalities like every other poseur on the internet! It's just that my generalizations will be far superior to the junk that all the other clueless idiots spew out...

Stay tuned!

 
  #164 (permalink)
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@Deucalion

Thanks for those videos. I love TED.

That last one reminded me of this:



There are several good talks by Mr. Robinson on YouTube. Creativity is underappreciated...

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  #165 (permalink)
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Deucalion View Post
Google "intuition & emotion" and one comes with a ton of nonsense linking the two and mixing intuition with spirituality, hocus pocus as if it was some magical (mystical?) mumbo jumbo. This typically comes from idiots and pseudo scientists/self-proclaimed experts who quickly want to label and package things neatly into boxes. Just your everyday reductionist BS that pervades our lives. No nuance, no insight, no subtlety, no acceptance of the abstract and the possible.....just living in prose. Utter Banality.

I have a hard time accepting intuition is a pure abstract that one is simply born with. I am firmly in the camp of believing that one's social & learning environment hones it. It is a an important tool for me. I mirror your thoughts on intuition, although I am less inclined with the math side of it. Being a physics student, I am happy when my intuition does not clash or contradict natural logic and rational thought. That's it. Your thoughts on intuition reminded me of this - Intuition -- Psychodynamics and the Science of Intuition

For one thing, this explains better INT"X" rather than just "J". Actually, today I believe my brain is evolving into a similar thought process too. Secondly, I use to scoff at the right brain types, the abstract thinkers, the artisans - believing vainly in the edge of the Rationals. No more - I often admire the artsy types for their abilities to think freely - my rational bit keeps me grounded - so this maybe the best of two worlds so to speak. You can be thinking and perceving at the same time without losing rational & logical thought.

Jung (famously) - "It is fashionable stupidity to regard everything one cannot explain as a fraud."

Mintzberg (less famously) - "It isn't possible to assess the use of intuition by purely logical processes. It is a subconscious process, which no one really understands, except by certain of its characteristics (such as the speed with which it can sometimes produce answers.) Thus the dismissal of intuition as an irrational process is itself irrational, just as embracing it as a process superior to formal logic is itself illogical."

This is a lovely piece on this thought - Einstein On Creative Thinking: Music and the Intuitive Art of Scientific Imagination | Psychology Today

I agree. There's so much junk out there that it boggles the mind. I think people are suffering from information overload, leading them to simply pick something and defend it to their death. It's sad, really. All that energy could be spent learning to know oneself, and one's surroundings, with an open mind. I find a lot of that pseudoscience harder to understand than real science, but people won't even give it a chance. Probably because there are far too arrogant people using science to feed their own ego, which ruins it for all of us.

Engineers are often the worst. There seems to be a ton of engineers on trading sites, and they like to tell other what can't be done. They are just displaying their own ignorance; they have no flair for the abstract. I would say that abstract algebra is more useful to a trader. I am, of course, talking about discretionary trading, or possibly an adaptive automated strategy, as I don't classify other approaches as real trading. I'm referring to the art of intuitively capturing the essence of an immensely complex system, not jerking around with infrastructure-based trading. Latency arbitrage is not "true" trading; those kinds of approaches are for the uninspired.

There's so much ego on trading boards; everyone is looking to justify their failing trading careers by claiming superiority in the cyber realm. Or they actually make money, but are simply severely disturbed human beings.
Before I get many hostile replies claiming that I am the most arrogant of all, I would like to reiterate that I am simply a great humorist. It is just that it is so subtle that it's hard to pick up.

I really liked the article about Einstein. It pretty much summed up my thoughts on the subject. Music is also a very visual experience for me and I've spoken about the link between music and trading a few times before. I quickly got corrected, of course, by the people who must use war metaphors and other aggressive approaches to trading.

Yes, I made the transition from J to X in my teens, but I still feel like punching hippies in the face!

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  #166 (permalink)
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Lornz View Post
There's so much ego on trading boards; everyone is looking to justify their failing trading careers by claiming superiority in the cyber realm. Or they actually make money, but are simply severely disturbed human beings.

Post of the day (month?).

I only disagree with being disturbed and making money. That's kinda hard to do (be) both at the same time. Gotta have your shit together to pull the dough in.

"...the degree to which you think you know, assume you know, or in any way need to know what is going to happen next, is equal to the degree to which you will fail as a trader." - Mark Douglas
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  #167 (permalink)
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Deucalion View Post
Qualifier - it would be easy to get lost into detail with the stuff you covered, so i am going to use Occam's Razor principle here (imagine my pleasant sense of deja vue when I read this linking Occam's Razor to heuristics, bayes, probablity et al...)

I agree, some people focus trading on a narrow basis. Trading patterns in any market are a result of human beliefs. Beliefs are rational, irrational, instinctual, intellectual, mob driven, predictable, unpredictable....etc etc.......They come from every facet of human endeavour. Anyone that disregards this is missing the bigger picture. In fact, this I would say I abhor that sort of narrow approach - Every trade of mine is constantly evaluating "why" and "why not" together....right from entry to exit. It keeps me out of some simple trades but it also keeps me of trouble (which works for me)

All of this is reflected in everyday patterns. This again comes back to why I only trade EW. I believe on both an intuitive and rational level that human beings will always color the market with their beliefs (no matter how good the machines get). After all, machines are based on our collective learning and knowledge. I also would state that EW is one way of interpreting our belief systems (not the only way but one way that appeals to me holistically).

I would go as far as claiming that simple Bayesian thoughts, optimised by common sense heuristics and pattern recognition are all linked together in this....nothing violates the other. This is poetry to me....I cannot quantify it (yet). But it's there. It's such a pleasant thing to note that when I mentioned intuition and emotion, you followed that with Bayes with machine learning. And pattern recognition. I understand that you are talking about this is a general sense, more than just trading. And this is so true.....pattern recognition rules everything. Trading, our beliefs and responses to all sensory input. This is obviously why pattern traders have a powerful tool (if done well). Obviously with common sense money managemernt. otherwise its just illogical

Once again, I will quote Dr Brett about this aspect - Pattern Recognition: A Core Trading Competency

Big Boris covers this beautifully - Pattern Recognition And Trading Models. Let me be clear, I do not endorse or support or subscribe to him, but his articles on trading and trading behaviour are endearingly simple as he consciously (or unconsciously) covers the mental side of this in often succinct words here - Tiger Shark Trading, Daily Commentary from Professional Traders

You are more keen than I am on the math side of it, trying to quantify it and all. You may find some material here - Intelligent Trading. I found this simple stuff nifty (I assume you are way past this level though) - http://retina.cs.bilkent.edu.tr/papers/patrec_tutorial1.pdf

Unfortunately, I have made zero progress reading about stuff that interests me (in trading and general) about neuroplasticity and genesis, as well as Pattern Recognition as I got sidetracked with a final effort in understanding market profile (both time and volume based) and other volume related studies in trading recently. Ultimately realizing, after much effort that my interpretation of EW already gives me a sledgehammer and the current popularity of this hot new(?) trend of using MP is just that, another trend that will lose its lustre as everyone adopts it (which is also why I said the bit about Occam's Razor in the beginning). Simplicity rules!

Wish I found running interesting, it was/is squash that always clicked me on, physical chess my old man calls it. And so relates to trading as well - anticipation, controlled aggression, sudden violence and frequently unpredictable.

It was indeed the good man himself.......

Edit - 1025EDT: forgot that BBC Mind Changers is back with a new material..............BBC - BBC Radio 4 Programmes - Mind Changers


I have always opposed quantifying my trading, mostly because I thought it would be impossible. But, after trading for nearly 10 years, I am bored with trading. I feel that I've mastered it, and I've been struggling with my motivation for the past year. I am not easily motivated by money. That's why I started posting on message boards; it's become so routine that it's mind-numbingly boring. This hopeless feeling of despair sparked my interest in the quantitative side. Although I have my concerns about the viability of my project, I am sure it will be a lot of fun regardless. I always intended to retire from intraday trading before turning 30, but I've spent far too much money traveling the world to be able to justify such a drastic move at this point. However, I hope to sufficiently compound my way out of this meaningless endeavor over the next year or two, or possibly manage to automate it. Mind you, I will still continue my global macro trading until I my early death, which is where the real fun, and money, is. To quote the great PTJ:

"I love trading macro. If trading is like chess, then macro is like three-dimensional chess." (AR)

As an EW guy, you will probably enjoy this:
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/13/business/13speculate.html?_r=1&ex=1192939200&en=3fd543193ab577b1&ei=5070&emc=eta1

I assume that you've seen this:
Historyís Hidden Engine

I don't understand the renaissance of MP. It's been around forever, why has it suddenly caught on? Probably because it stopped working! EW talks about waves, while MP revolves around rotations. I liked the compact charting MP offered, but I always split the TPOs. The distribution aspect of MP is meaningless, but MP itself charting isolates some metrics that can be made useful. Most (?) used it in combination with the Liquidity Data Bank, but I hardly see that mentioned. However, all of those things are just tools to filter the markets (aside from the LDB, which provides additional information), and once one gets a feel for the underlying principles they become irrelevant. People thinking about this theory vs that theory are deluding themselves; there are only underlying processes and various attempts to decipher them. The only right answer is what makes the most money at any given time. There is no point in growing emotionally attached to any particular market philosophy. I might be completely wrong, of course, but I generally look at the markets as dangerously close to random most of the time. I rarely have a clue about what's going on. But, when I do, I use it for what it's worth. That's enough to make quite a decent living, but people seem to long for total enlightenment. To each his own: I've developed my own approach and I ain't sharing.

By the way, thanks for making me aware of "Mind Changers", it seems interesting.

 
  #168 (permalink)
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I just wanted to follow up my psychotic rambling with this:

Never spend too much time trying to learn a theory that describes the market, study the market itself instead. Start with the ridiculously simple, and then add and remove complexity in a never-ending quest for an ounce of understanding.

IMHO, people trade too often. Try to isolate certain conditions and build from there. If I could pick only one thing, it would have to be my spreadsheet. It is a brilliant piece of art, if I am allowed to say so myself...

Most important of all, to all the lurkers out there, don't listen to anyone on online message boards. Not even me. Fuck me! Who am I to tell others what is right?

I feel that this journal has nearly reached its natural end.... I will try to give it an honorable kiss of death in the near future.

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  #169 (permalink)
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Anagami View Post
Post of the day (month?).

I only disagree with being disturbed and making money. That's kinda hard to do (be) both at the same time. Gotta have your shit together to pull the dough in.

Thanks! I had to put that in there because I can't know for certain. I can think of a poster or two on ET that might fit the latter description.

It's very clear that nearly everyone that posts on these boards are not making consistent gains, excluding the premium sellers that works for scraps.

How's your Dual N-Back training going? Are you still experiencing positive effects?

What about your paid thing, @Deucalion? Is it worth it?

I'm thinking about getting my parents to start doing mental exercises, and I'm contemplating which one to chose. Does the IQ Mindware require a certain level of English proficiency? I saw a screenshot of stuff like "Lornz is to cool as @Deucalion is to uncool"...


Last edited by Lornz; May 2nd, 2012 at 04:26 AM.
 
  #170 (permalink)
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Lornz View Post
..........
Before I get many hostile replies claiming that I am the most arrogant of all, I would like to reiterate that I am simply a great humorist. It is just that it is so subtle that it's hard to pick up.

I really liked the article about Einstein. It pretty much summed up my thoughts on the subject. Music is also a very visual experience for me and I've spoken about the link between music and trading a few times before....

Dearest Lornz...well I've enjoyed your arrogance, it's always made me smile...
so thank you..
and thank you too for starting that music thread "song(s) of the day"..
One of my favourite threads...!

kind regards

Every moment I wake up I realize I know nothing, and then I smile...
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