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the best indicator and settings for swing trades
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the best indicator and settings for swing trades

  #11 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
new york, new york
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: ninjatrader
Favorite Futures: spy
Posts: 49 since Apr 2010
Thanks: 62 given, 9 received

Fat Tails View Post
There is no "best" indicator. An indicator does not mean anything, as it is only a projection of price by eliminating some of the information. If you want to trade, you need

(1) a setup, for example

- overbought or oversold condition as identified by one or several indicators
- a trend filter
- a time filter

(2) a trigger, for example

- price moving in the expected direction and making a new n-bar high

(3) position sizing and a stop-loss determined by money management rules (money stop)

(4) a market stop-loss determined by support and resistance as identified by another indicator

(5) one or several targets for taking your profit

This is a system that might give you an edge.

Now each instrument that you can trade shows a different behaviour, depending on the traders that trade them. The vegetation of Madagascar is different from the vegetation of Greenland. And so are the trading strategies of YM and CL traders.

Cycles do have an impact. There is a daily cycle and a weekly cycle. Average volatility is higher on Friday compared to Mondays, so you can build on these cycles, because there is a reason for them to exist. Otherwise identifying cycles is a dangerous game, because you might just invent something.

There are too many former engineers running around that have majored in signal processing. Of course, if there is a cyclical signal, you can find that with some fourier transform, fisher transform, sine wave or fashionable corona indicators. But often there is no cyclical component, and these indicators will produce false signals. If you use cycle indicators, you should be sure that there is a cyclical component first, and an idea is needed why it should be there.

To summarize, I do not use cycle indicators. I prefer indicators that identify overbought and oversold conditions, such as

- support and resistance directly taken from price
- Keltner Channels or Bollinger Bands
- Stochastics, RSI or CCI

in conjunction with volume analysis.


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