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A lot of times in GC time and sales, I have seen a block order ranging from 50-100 and the market moving instantly - I trade only US open.
1. Do all these blocks get filled right away or they just make temporary 'noise' only?
2. I have seen the prices coming down instantly within one minute in the reverse direction after these blocks 'push' the prices in that direction. E.g. Block order of 50 pushes up instantly for a point or two (10 - 20 ticks in GC), then it comes down equally within a couple of minutes. If it was a block to move forwards, i.e. up or down, without any absence of other block orders, why does it usually come down?
3. How realistic will be the expectation to fill 50-100 cars on market order during the US open? I know ES wouldn't have any problems, what about GC?
Next time you mitice point 1 again , you could check the time and sales data for the exchange it is traded on. There will be a record of each transaction eg time, qty, bid,ask and at what price etc
Good question re 2 , why does it come down. I guess it is buying and selling pressure as dictated by various programs. I have found the markets are very very precise as to where price goes and what patterns it forms.Our task is to find these patterns like you are doing and then testing to see if they are in fact more like axioms.
re 3 ...is this something you are thinking of doing yourself ? if so you must have quite a bit of $$ in the account for taking such a large "risk" Some volume analysis of the time and sales data will answer your question. I do know there are "dark pools" that can supply qty to match but i am out of my depth here sorry.
1. I use Iceberg Detectors now, so when I see the big blocks of buy or sell, there are usually swings associated with it. So, I think I answered my own question.
2. This was just an observation - but like you said, it's good to find the patterns to trade after a swing, or depending on your style of trading.
3. I asked this because when I see big blocks (especially in GC), markets tend to be volatile right away. So I asked if big players are using market orders to fill in their orders quickly (usually news related) or how.
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
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"block trades" may not be exactly what you think they are, and hence may not effect the market the way you think they do.
For reference I'm an energy trader and I regularly execute block trades so have experience with them - at least in the energy markets. Maybe things are completely different in other markets.
First "block trades" may not be exactly what you think they are. A block trade is a trade that is negotiated off exchange. What that trade is, you don't know, all you know is what you see print on the tape. If I do a NYMEX / ICE WTI block trade, and your trading NYMEX Crude, all you will see is the NYMEX Crude Block trade post. You have no idea that it's offset by an identical trade on ICE. There are many other examples but that is the most obvious.
Second "block trades" may not effect the market the way you think they do. Depending upon the product being blocked, brokers have up to 15 minutes (but in many cases only 5 minutes) to post the trade into the system. So the trade your seeing print on the tape is almost guaranteed to be several minutes old and maybe as many as 15 minutes old.
