NexusFi: Find Your Edge


Home Menu

 





Backtest Strategy weak points


Discussion in NinjaTrader

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one walter739 with 16 posts (4 thanks)
    2. looks_two Tiffsgreta with 5 posts (2 thanks)
    3. looks_3 kevinkdog with 4 posts (15 thanks)
    4. looks_4 userque with 3 posts (2 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one kevinkdog with 3.8 thanks per post
    2. looks_two fernlicht with 3 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 vmodus with 2.5 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 walter739 with 0.3 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 10,170 views
    2. thumb_up 58 thanks given
    3. group 225 followers
    1. forum 45 posts
    2. attach_file 7 attachments




 
Search this Thread

Backtest Strategy weak points

  #21 (permalink)
 fernlicht 
Schwyz, Switzerland
 
Experience: None
Platform: NinjaTrader, Visual Studi
Broker: IB, Biftinex, Binance
Trading: Yes
Posts: 59 since Jan 2012
Thanks Given: 7
Thanks Received: 33

Well, my 2cent.
I personally would not trade a intraday strategy
that has a 1 year ‚come back‘ period. It only makes
your broker rich
I tell you my KPIs to put a future intraday strategy online.
(Real Money on Micro ES mini for 3months then ES Mini)
It may not apply to others. The out of sample test
must show:
- min 50% winners or better. Less than 40% is a NoNo.
Your mind has to deal with a lot of losers then which will
feel right. especially in the beginning.
- no more than 6 consecutive losers
- max drawdown less than 11%
- sharpe better than 0.8
- sortino better than 2
- avg winner for sure way better than 0.1%
- recover in less than 3 months

You can expect In real money it will perform worse due to changing market conditions.
If it’s automated the strategy will suffer from IT failures, missed trades that were
Pnl positive. Etc.

This sounds for sure hard to achieve but it prevented me
from overall losing strategies.

So start very small, but start

Reply With Quote
Thanked by:

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on NexusFi?
ZombieSqueeze
Platforms and Indicators
What broker to use for trading palladium futures
Commodities
REcommedations for programming help
Sierra Chart
Quantum physics & Trading dynamics
The Elite Circle
MC PL editor upgrade
MultiCharts
 
  #22 (permalink)
walter739
Caracas
 
Posts: 23 since Sep 2020
Thanks Given: 114
Thanks Received: 12


IFeelLikeNeo View Post
Also... add your trade costs; mine are around $2.75. That makes a difference to a backtest that trades 1,000 times or more, though much less than the essential slippage of course.

Also... buy and read Kevin Davey's book "Building Winning Algorithmic Trading Systems". It covers almost all of the biggest pitfalls you're coming across, including the ones explained here.

Testing on blind periods (either manually or using your platform's 'walkforward' mode) is also essential.

Pick a random spot on your equity curve. Imagine you had just started trading at that point. How long before you made money? Now do that two or three more times. Could you have happily traded through the ensuing 3, 6, 9, 12 months?

Thank you, I think will buy the book of Kevin, but is not easy translate in Spanish with kindle read.

The strategy with splipage is not so good, i need reevaluate for a better profit.

Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #23 (permalink)
JBroex
Istanbul
 
Posts: 35 since Sep 2020
Thanks Given: 24
Thanks Received: 19


I would definitely recommend that too, it will give you some good insight into what is necessary!

Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #24 (permalink)
walter739
Caracas
 
Posts: 23 since Sep 2020
Thanks Given: 114
Thanks Received: 12


T1234 View Post
Did you consider running this in SIM for a while, to see if your results match?

Yes work how expect in the backtest, but if i apply slippage for the real time the strategy is not so good.

Reply With Quote
  #25 (permalink)
walter739
Caracas
 
Posts: 23 since Sep 2020
Thanks Given: 114
Thanks Received: 12


SidewalkAerobics View Post
Your average profit per trade without slippage is $31. With a couple of ticks of slips (-$25) this leaves $6 per trade.

Your largest loss is over $7,000 and will increase as you add slippage, and no fills for some limit orders. (Try using 10% of limit entry winners not filled for backtesting. Also a tick of slippage for each leg of a market order.)

The biggest hurdle will be to enter on a limit rather than market. Limits don't always get filled and market entries create slippage between the bid and ask.

Keep us updated as you generate a report with slippage. Best wishes, your hard work is showing.

Thank you for the advices and your time. I use market orders i believe is more safe for backtest, if i apply limit order in live trading can be diferent to backtest in my strategy.

Reply With Quote
  #26 (permalink)
walter739
Caracas
 
Posts: 23 since Sep 2020
Thanks Given: 114
Thanks Received: 12


fernlicht View Post
Well, my 2cent.
I personally would not trade a intraday strategy
that has a 1 year ‚come back‘ period. It only makes
your broker rich
I tell you my KPIs to put a future intraday strategy online.
(Real Money on Micro ES mini for 3months then ES Mini)
It may not apply to others. The out of sample test
must show:
- min 50% winners or better. Less than 40% is a NoNo.
Your mind has to deal with a lot of losers then which will
feel right. especially in the beginning.
- no more than 6 consecutive losers
- max drawdown less than 11%
- sharpe better than 0.8
- sortino better than 2
- avg winner for sure way better than 0.1%
- recover in less than 3 months

You can expect In real money it will perform worse due to changing market conditions.
If it’s automated the strategy will suffer from IT failures, missed trades that were
Pnl positive. Etc.

This sounds for sure hard to achieve but it prevented me
from overall losing strategies.

So start very small, but start

Thank for your time, i will study this advices for my backtest. These numbers not easy but i wish cover my weaks before begin the real.

Reply With Quote
  #27 (permalink)
 kanepa 
philadelphia pa
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: ninja
Broker: NinjaTrader Brokerage
Trading: es
Posts: 202 since Jul 2017
Thanks Given: 348
Thanks Received: 409

Many good advice here. Hope you follow and re test your strategy.

Your new result including 1 slippage shows 95k profit over 14 years of trading. That is 7300 per year. Your max draw down is at almost 18k. If you double your max dd to trade, 36k commitment will yield you 7300 per year. That is 20% roi.(in real trading, it will be less) and per year, trading 438 round trips, at $8 per, it will cost you 3507.

So. If you take this strategy to real trading now, more chances of it producing unattractive results.

I am not an expert. Trying to make my system work in real trading arena myself but my suggestion would be this.

- limit your losses. Make them a set risk. 7k largest loss is simply not tradable.

- reduce number of rading.

-Research and analyze different conditions. Such as high volatility vs low. Longer term ma falling vs raising, above or below vwap, price above or below certain pivot, yesterday closing ir open etc. Test as many as you can. This would be beneficial to limit your number of trades as well as finding out where your strategy performs best or worse. And test long and short separately. Treat them as a one strategy. This is to understand your system's characteristics behavior.

- Understand how system performs in three major daily conditions. Bull, bear and side ways. This is to find where your system shines at most.

Doing mentioned above made me understand my system much better and made improvements in my system trading without adding layers and layers of filters to fit past data. Hope this helps a little and good luck.

Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #28 (permalink)
walter739
Caracas
 
Posts: 23 since Sep 2020
Thanks Given: 114
Thanks Received: 12


kanepa View Post
Many good advice here. Hope you follow and re test your strategy.

Your new result including 1 slippage shows 95k profit over 14 years of trading. That is 7300 per year. Your max draw down is at almost 18k. If you double your max dd to trade, 36k commitment will yield you 7300 per year. That is 20% roi.(in real trading, it will be less) and per year, trading 438 round trips, at $8 per, it will cost you 3507.

So. If you take this strategy to real trading now, more chances of it producing unattractive results.

I am not an expert. Trying to make my system work in real trading arena myself but my suggestion would be this.

- limit your losses. Make them a set risk. 7k largest loss is simply not tradable.

- reduce number of rading.

-Research and analyze different conditions. Such as high volatility vs low. Longer term ma falling vs raising, above or below vwap, price above or below certain pivot, yesterday closing ir open etc. Test as many as you can. This would be beneficial to limit your number of trades as well as finding out where your strategy performs best or worse. And test long and short separately. Treat them as a one strategy. This is to understand your system's characteristics behavior.

- Understand how system performs in three major daily conditions. Bull, bear and side ways. This is to find where your system shines at most.

Doing mentioned above made me understand my system much better and made improvements in my system trading without adding layers and layers of filters to fit past data. Hope this helps a little and good luck.

Thank you for your time and advices. I need test those good ideas .I think my strategy have a lot of trades and i can add other parameter and not overadjust.

Reply With Quote
  #29 (permalink)
 simondul 
Houston, TX, USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader, IB TWS, TOS
Broker: NinjaTrader Brokerage, IB,
Trading: Index Futures
Posts: 4 since May 2016
Thanks Given: 2
Thanks Received: 5

There is another book that I found as helpful (if not more so) as Kevin Davey’s “Building winning Algorithmic Trading Systems”. This is “Trading Systems - a new approach to system development and portfolio optimization” by Urban Jaekle and Emilio Tomasini.

Both books also deal with risk of ruin and how to use Monte Carlo simulation to assess the likelihood of this occurring. Monte Carlo is part of NinaTrader so this is relatively simple to perform now.

Both were incredibly helpful to me in understanding how to build automated systems and the steps required to make a system reliably profitable.

Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #30 (permalink)
 
vmodus's Avatar
 vmodus 
Somewhere, Delaware, USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: MultiCharts
Broker: Barchart.com
Trading: Everything, it all tastes like chicken
Posts: 1,271 since Feb 2017
Thanks Given: 2,958
Thanks Received: 2,853



simondul View Post
There is another book that I found as helpful (if not more so) as Kevin Davey’s “Building winning Algorithmic Trading Systems”. This is “Trading Systems - a new approach to system development and portfolio optimization” by Urban Jaekle and Emilio Tomasini.

Both books also deal with risk of ruin and how to use Monte Carlo simulation to assess the likelihood of this occurring. Monte Carlo is part of NinaTrader so this is relatively simple to perform now.

Both were incredibly helpful to me in understanding how to build automated systems and the steps required to make a system reliably profitable.

Thanks, I'll look for the book you mentioned. I recommend Davey's book. It was a game changer for us.

If you cannot do Monte Carlo via your platform, try Equity Monaco, which is a free Monte Carlo analysis tool: Equity Monaco | TickQuest Inc.. I have found Monte Carlo to be invaluable in our strategy development, testing and deployment.

~vmodus

Enjoy everything!
Follow me on Twitter Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote




Last Updated on October 13, 2020


© 2024 NexusFi™, s.a., All Rights Reserved.
Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama City, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada)
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
About Us - Contact Us - Site Rules, Acceptable Use, and Terms and Conditions - Privacy Policy - Downloads - Top
no new posts