The Andrew's Pitchfork is really a great tool as price really seems to follow a pitchfork at almost any given time.
This can really attract a trader to the pitchfork.
Now I didnt read through the whole thread and will. But i noticed alot of pictures have more then one pitchfork.
Also some of the ones that are valid are not always drawn with the pivote low or high.
Any 3 pivots can produce 2 pitchforks (more if you dont only use pivotes) One of these will typically face down and the other up. This will lead to price being squeezed to satisfy both pitchforks for as long as it can and then we have a break out where a certain pitchfork is now followed.
On top of this at this point there is probably half a dozen new pitchforks that can be drawn and only one or 2 will be followed. again we will see price squeeze in to accomodate as many pitch forks as possible and then break out to follow one. (at this time once again half a dozen more pitchforks can be drawn.
This sqeezing of price can be seen as what many refer to as a triangle formation. Often people that use pitchforks can see a triangle formation well before others.
But there is no edge in it. one can easly do just as well if they saw the triangle later on.
Not a break out trader? The trend is your friend ?
well if we assume that a pitchfork will keep in its lines and there is space to draw atleast 2 pitchforks for every 3 pivotes and new pivotes are always being produced, what are the chances the pitchfork you are are using as your entry and exit is teh correct one out of the other 10. ?
why not just trade triangles? or connect the last few pivotes and make a diagonal line ?
In essance doing so will let you enter at the best pitchforks. The lines that mater.
Im a pro pitchfork trader. and i notice that everything seems so clear untill you trade it live with money.
Then you see price always going against you or stoping you out. I can easily draw 100 pitchforks and yes price will go to the spots where there are alot of intersections... Doesn't mean its tradable.
Also since pitchforks can be drawn in so many ways we dont always draw them the same.
Try to draw your 7 or so pitchforks and then take a picture. the next day try to reproduce them. either they will be different or you will want to adjust them as you see something you didnt before.
So there is no way to constantly use the same rules to make pitchforks on different stocks.
this means that you will not be able to take keep track of yoru trades as there is no value that can be given to what you saw that day vs what you see another day.
Again I like them and am trying a way to use them. but before you think you found the answer here, understand that there is alot of work to do. Using pitchforks adds alot of manual work. It may be wise to just look at diagonal resistance lines or triangles and scan for them and learn to play them. ( it will be easy to quantify your results). You will still be using the pitchfork concepts but with way less work.
OR be stuborn and do it the hard way...
Like me and so many others that get addicted to geometry.
The following user says Thank You to traitor786 for this post:
You can draw a billion forks but not all of them will contain the frequency of price. My general rule is to not have more than three forks on a chart at a time. I also am constantly trying to evaluate which fork is dominant. In a down trend I am more interested in trading off a downward sloping fork and will use an upward sloping fork to help locate likely turning points when price is retracing.
The skill in forks is using the correct ones. Yes - it takes time to master them - this is true of any useful trading technique. Very few indicators are leading and have probabilities associated with them. This is what makes forks special and more helpful than a basic triangle pattern. Also the study of forks contains the study of market structure which is immensely helpful to any trader.
Well i would have to agree. the problem is i have been using forks exclusively and it has not yielded profit for me. Granted I had very sloppy trade management, it should of still been a net positive as if there is even teh slightest edge it reflect in my profits.
Now im focusing more on keeping track of trades and win percentages and all.
Is this supposed to be the missing link ? has it worked for you ?
I would recommend signing up for Tim Morge's webinars at market geometry. It costs around $150 bucks a month but you get to learn from one of the biggest traders around who only uses median lines to trade. I have found median lines to be "it" for me. I'm not killing it profit wise but I am profitable. The more I practice the better my eyes become at seeing setups.
If I payed for advice that i feel could benefit me I would not need to trade to loose my money.
I find the pitchforks really works well. Its kind of spooky. On gold it did wonders catching the 1900 high and the low.
but i am finding that it may be too often that a fork is broken. Or that price runs along one of the arms giving the feeling that we may break out.
I'm not sure about the 80 % theory but ill look more in to it.
If it was that clear we would not gave to look for aditional entry signals like 123 of fibs.
but now when i see a chart all i see a 90 degree moves every little bump and be a pitfork and though it may not trend in it it will still follow some resistance.
I think every one that plays around with it learns something different. Its like no matter what way you look at you and justify that it works.
now i pre adjust my pitchforks laying the median line along any hugging of a outer line. and i am ready fo the expansion.
It really is the only thing i have looked at as far as indicators and drawings go.
Price will meet resistance . but knowing how to trade resistance is a whole other story.
I really enjoyed adding forks to spy qqq and fas. it was interesting how when one of them breaks out of fork the others do to.
It also explained why sometimes one moves and the other doesn't. If the qqq is stuck at a median it just is more likely to stay flat on the median while the spy reverses violently off an arm. I could talk about the fork for hours and show some interesting stuff. But i have learnt that it is all useless unless you know how to trade.
I am curious though, has any one tried other inductors or patterns or drawings and found it to be jsut as accurate? I feel like it may be very similar to fibs ?
Great chart . but zoom in a bit. If you have a closer look the actual uptrend movement in the chart is after hours (assuming it was a stock) the actual daily movement does not in anyway reflect the uptrend. The daily charts react to previous highs and lows that are horizontal.
great for swing trading. questionable at best for day trading..
$SPX = SP 500 cash, there is no after hours - pitchforks, median lines, jaenish are useful for targets , support and resistance , if you can spot meaning full anchor points , same with fibs etc... in this case the fork, the fibs support and resistance are all pretty much inline , I don't use em as much as fibs and usually only on bigger picture , but they can work on smaller time-frames ....