I took a quick look today at the last major swings on the ES. Here is what we get using Excel:
This suggests we'll have a rotational day or a down day. The Mid point or 50% of the many swings shows the uptrend has been developing for many consecutive days. Looking at the mid point progression is like looking at the series of HH HL. That's another way to gauge a trend, are the middle points going up or down. That's all we need. Here in the Excel chart i used a polynomial curve to make some prediction based on the information available up to this point.
The Magenta line shows the progression of the middle point of the previous swings identified. If i would be using Illustrator from Adobe to draw a curve i'd say we are at a key area to add an anchor point and start a new direction or adjust the handles of the anchor point to make some adjustment to the developing curve.
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It seems that there were some questions regarding the functionality of the PitchFork tool in Ninja and I was unable to find any posts resolving this. So, I hope I'm not stating the obvious but if you draw a pitchfork, select it, and right click on it and select properties, you now have access to a bunch of additional functionalities.
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I didn't notice this in b23, and wonder if this was added in r1. (didn't check, i don't use NT very much for charting)
I used the pitchfork tool this morning, and it functions decently but has a major deficiency that I see - very limited on the number of warning lines, especially if one is using midpoint lines as well.
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I'm a new forker myself and have been reading everything I can find on the subject. I thought I might mention that in a lot of the charts that I've seen posted here it seems like users should be using a schiff pitchfork. This often works better than a traditional fork especially when the slope of the fork is very steep. Often the traditional fork with capture the parabolic portion of a price move and the schiff fork will catch the follow through. Hope this helps.
Until now, I have read the Mikula book. I would love to know what are the best resources, to learn this thoroughly.
Timothy Morge, Greg Fisher, Gordon de Roos, Ron Janeisch, Mircea Dologa are some of the best trading coaches for Pitchfork analysis.
Timothy Morge seems to be quite popular based on postings by various traders on the Internet. Also Ron Jaenisch calls posted on his group, are really accurate, although his course fees are around 3900$, bit high for me, right now.
I would to know which ones of these coaches, would you guys recommend, to upgrade my skills.
Which coaches should someone new to this begin with ?
Last edited by rishi; December 6th, 2011 at 07:47 PM.
I have spent the better part of 3 months devouring everything I could on pitchforks. There isn't a ton of information out there and it seems like you have hit on all the major players. I too have read the original Andrews course, the Mikula book, some of Gordon de Roos work and the free stuff that Greg Fisher has made available.
In my opinion the Mikula book is a travesty. I have no doubt that he knows a ton about pitchforks and has done a ton of research into the subject but I personally feel that he has taken a subject that is elegantly simple and has twisted it into something horrifyingly complex.
For the money I can't imagine there is better value than signing up for Timothy Morge's premium membership. I believe the first month is around $100 and you get 3 weekly live webinars with Tim and his disciple Shane. You also get access to his backlog of webinars which must be nearing 1000 hours of material. His basic approach is to teach you how to think about trading and to develop a strategy which is centered around money management and patience. He also has a ton of free articles.
I should also mention that I can't imagine any of the other fork guys have the credentials of Mr. Morge. He has traded professionally for years with position sizes sometimes in the billions. He admits to having a winrate of around 2/3rds with a risk to reward ratio in excess of 3-1. He also trains floor traders from the CME. He doesn't do it for the money.
This isn't to say anything bad about the other guys but Tim is widely regarded as THE fork expert.
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I've never dealt with Ron but I would recommend you send an e-mail to Timothy Morge asking how he feels about Ron and his material before shelling out $4000. I've looked at his website and it makes flags go off for me. The original Andrew's course which which you can download for free was under 100 pages but he claims to have a1000 pages of distilled material, he's created some kind of indicator (ORE) and claims to also have Babson material.
This all may be true but I am always very cautious when someone claims to have lost secrets. Just do your due diligence. Here is the link to the original course: