Applying Fibonacci Cluster and Confluence Zones - NinjaTrader | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


Applying Fibonacci Cluster and Confluence Zones
Updated: Views / Replies:74,679 / 182
Created: by Fat Tails Attachments:103

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 90,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors Ė all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you donít need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Reply
 103  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

Applying Fibonacci Cluster and Confluence Zones

  #41 (permalink)
Market Wizard
virginia
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: ninja
Favorite Futures: ES
 
cory's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,216 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 628 given, 6,314 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


Fat Tails View Post
...

which of the chart below tells you the most compelling story?

chart 4, resistant at 61% and zig zag up.

Reply With Quote
 
  #42 (permalink)
Site Administrator
Manta, Ecuador
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: My own custom solution
Favorite Futures: E-mini ES S&P 500
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 46,238 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 29,350 given, 83,220 received

FWIW, my feelings on the last few posts (is it time to short the ES) can be best summarized by "who knows". Put another way, my feelings are that chart patterns are fun to look at -- but every tick in the market is unique. The saying 'history repeats itself' is quite true in some ways, but not all, especially within the market. Each tick, each time, each trend line, each Elliott Wave, each retracement -- they are all unique. So don't place too much emphasis on what the pattern says to do.

Instead, just focus on what is in front of you. You need to frame the market based on your own methods. Then take action based on your findings, if action is called for. If you are wrong, then get out. If you are right, then good job. Focus on money management -- expectancy etc, and you'll do fine. Simple as that, right?



Mike

Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

Need help?
1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first.
2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses.
3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make.
4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance.
5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers.
6)
Help using the forum? Watch this video to learn general tips on using the site.

If you want
to support our community, become an Elite Member.

Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to Big Mike for this post:
 
  #43 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.probabletrades.com 
OC, California, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB/TWS, NinjaTrader, thinkorswim
Favorite Futures: stocks, options, futures, VIX
 
shodson's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,859 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 480 given, 3,254 received



Big Mike View Post
FWIW, my feelings on the last few posts (is it time to short the ES) can be best summarized by "who knows". Put another way, my feelings are that chart patterns are fun to look at -- but every tick in the market is unique. The saying 'history repeats itself' is quite true in some ways, but not all, especially within the market. Each tick, each time, each trend line, each Elliott Wave, each retracement -- they are all unique. So don't place too much emphasis on what the pattern says to do.

Instead, just focus on what is in front of you. You need to frame the market based on your own methods. Then take action based on your findings, if action is called for. If you are wrong, then get out. If you are right, then good job. Focus on money management -- expectancy etc, and you'll do fine. Simple as that, right?



Mike

Agreed. The market is fractal, except when it isn't.

I think, though, with some geometry you can place trades with high expectancies and favorable risk/reward ratios so you don't have to be right most of the time. You don't have to know where the market is going, only make an educated guess, wrapped around good risk management. Tie it in with out of the money stock/ETF options based on time and price projections and you can reduce your risk/reward even lower.

Reply With Quote
 
  #44 (permalink)
Elite Member
Europe
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
 
Posts: 4 since May 2010
Thanks: 0 given, 2 received


Fat Tails View Post
I am not too much into harmonics or geometry. If you apply all that stuff simultaneously, it is a head-ache. Elliott Wave Theory is a method that allows at least four directions in price (up, down, circle, nowhere), so I never use it. However, I look at overlap, which means consolidation, and at wide ranging bars on high volume, which means that the consolidation is over. Volatility (range and swing size) is one of the most underestimated tools in technical analysis. Indicators are mostly useless. This is particularly true for oscillators. They are just ........

........If I use fib lines at all, I take my secret weapon, the confluence indicator (shown below). The right chart is not for trading, just to explain, how this indicator is working.

FatTails,
nice work with your confluence indicator and your analysis on the probabilities at certain levels. May I ask if you include other levels not strictly related to fibonacci in your indicator. Reason I ask is while doing some statistical research myself I happen to notice levels like 1/4, 1/3 1/2 (that one all fib people usually include though) 2/3 and 3/4.

Theoretically one could of course get probabilities for all levels on all zigzag variants and then find confluence. But I actually run an old computer as I mainly trade watching price action without any indicator at all and suspect it to be way too slow.

Cheers

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to NoBiggie for this post:
 
  #45 (permalink)
Elite Member
Berlin, Europe
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, MultiCharts
Broker/Data: Interactive Brokers
Favorite Futures: Keyboard
 
Fat Tails's Avatar
 
Posts: 9,651 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 4,226 given, 25,601 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


NoBiggie View Post
FatTails,
nice work with your confluence indicator and your analysis on the probabilities at certain levels. May I ask if you include other levels not strictly related to fibonacci in your indicator. Reason I ask is while doing some statistical research myself I happen to notice levels like 1/4, 1/3 1/2 (that one all fib people usually include though) 2/3 and 3/4.

Theoretically one could of course get probabilities for all levels on all zigzag variants and then find confluence. But I actually run an old computer as I mainly trade watching price action without any indicator at all and suspect it to be way too slow.

Cheers

The indicator uses the level 1/2. However it does not make sense to include too many neighbouring levels. For example you could use

A or B:

23.6% or 25 %
38.6% or 37.5%
50% both
61.8% or 62.5%
76.8% or 75%
88.6% or 87.5%

On the left side you see the fib levels, on the right side it is simply 2/8, 3/8, 4/8, 5/8, 6/8, 7/8.

It does not really make a difference, whether you trade 1/8's or fib ratios.

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Fat Tails for this post:
 
  #46 (permalink)
Elite Member
San Jose, Ca
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Ninja
Broker/Data: AMP/CQG
Favorite Futures: Something moving
 
David_R's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,510 since Nov 2009
Thanks: 2,267 given, 2,371 received


Big Mike View Post
FWIW, my feelings on the last few posts (is it time to short the ES) can be best summarized by "who knows". Put another way, my feelings are that chart patterns are fun to look at -- but every tick in the market is unique. The saying 'history repeats itself' is quite true in some ways, but not all, especially within the market. Each tick, each time, each trend line, each Elliott Wave, each retracement -- they are all unique. So don't place too much emphasis on what the pattern says to do.

Instead, just focus on what is in front of you. You need to frame the market based on your own methods. Then take action based on your findings, if action is called for. If you are wrong, then get out. If you are right, then good job. Focus on money management -- expectancy etc, and you'll do fine. Simple as that, right?



Mike

I completely agree. As soon as we start thinking we know what is going to happen we better watch out. Even if you are correct in your assessment why not let the market show you first and then look to take a trade.

By the way, I don't want to post off topic, but I was wondering if confluence of fibs combined with other methods have value? For example, this attached chart with a 78.6 retracement with MP zone. I apologize if the post should be in its own thread.

David

Attached Thumbnails
Applying Fibonacci Cluster and Confluence Zones-conf-mp.jpg  
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to David_R for this post:
 
  #47 (permalink)
Elite Member
Berlin, Europe
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, MultiCharts
Broker/Data: Interactive Brokers
Favorite Futures: Keyboard
 
Fat Tails's Avatar
 
Posts: 9,651 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 4,226 given, 25,601 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


David_R View Post
I completely agree. As soon as we start thinking we know what is going to happen we better watch out. Even if you are correct in your assessment why not let the market show you first and then look to take a trade. David

If you wait for the market to show you first, you will enter to late. I feel that I am only rewarded, if I take a risk, which is always a difficult decision. I look at risk-to-reward and not at no-risk-to-no-reward ratios.


David_R View Post
I completely agree. As soon as we start thinking we know what is going to happen we better watch out. Even if you are correct in your assessment why not let the market show you first and then look to take a trade.

By the way, I don't want to post off topic, but I was wondering if confluence of fibs combined with other methods have value? For example, this attached chart with a 78.6 retracement with MP zone. I apologize if the post should be in its own thread.

David

You need to combine fibs with other methods. A fib line has a probability that price will react, there is no certainty. The probability will increase, if you find other valid arguments to enter or exit a trade. One fib line is not a sufficient reason in any case. Also I would like to see some confirmation by volume and price action.

Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to Fat Tails for this post:
 
  #48 (permalink)
Elite Member
San Jose, Ca
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Ninja
Broker/Data: AMP/CQG
Favorite Futures: Something moving
 
David_R's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,510 since Nov 2009
Thanks: 2,267 given, 2,371 received


Fat Tails View Post
If you wait for the market to show you first, you will enter to late. I feel that I am only rewarded, if I take a risk, which is always a difficult decision. I look at risk-to-reward and not at no-risk-to-no-reward ratios.



You need to combine fibs with other methods. A fib line has a probability that price will react, there is no certainty. The probability will increase, if you find other valid arguments to enter or exit a trade. One fib line is not a sufficient reason in any case. Also I would like to see some confirmation by volume and price action.


What I mean by the market showing you first would be to see if the areas that one has indicated as support or resistance is indeed acting as such. If the support or resistance level is defined from a much higher time frame such as a daily chart or a 60 minute chart and we see the area holding on a smaller time frame wouldn't that provide some degree of comfort that maybe the area is holding?

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to David_R for this post:
 
  #49 (permalink)
Elite Member
Berlin, Europe
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, MultiCharts
Broker/Data: Interactive Brokers
Favorite Futures: Keyboard
 
Fat Tails's Avatar
 
Posts: 9,651 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 4,226 given, 25,601 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


David_R View Post
What I mean by the market showing you first would be to see if the areas that one has indicated as support or resistance is indeed acting as such. If the support or resistance level is defined from a much higher time frame such as a daily chart or a 60 minute chart and we see the area holding on a smaller time frame wouldn't that provide some degree of comfort that maybe the area is holding?

Ok, guess I missunderstood what you meant.

Yes, I usually do not enter a trade because somewhere my chart shows a line. I watch price action, when it approaches the fib line. I would enter on the way back from a retest of the high or low.

I do look at different timeframes. Ideally I want to see a retest of price within the smaller timeframe, which is a retest in a larger timeframe as well. Quite agree with you!

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Fat Tails for this post:
 
  #50 (permalink)
Elite Member
Berlin, Europe
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, MultiCharts
Broker/Data: Interactive Brokers
Favorite Futures: Keyboard
 
Fat Tails's Avatar
 
Posts: 9,651 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 4,226 given, 25,601 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Some charts of today without comment


All ranges and lines plotted in real time without redrawing. There are support and resistance levels, which cannot be explained by Fibonacci lines, as not all traders use them. Pivots for example would be as important. But on each of the Fibonacci lines, a sufficient number of traders is gathering to make them tradeable on range days.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to Fat Tails for this post:

Reply



futures io > > > > Applying Fibonacci Cluster and Confluence Zones

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

Linda Bradford Raschke: Reading The Tape

Elite only

Adam Grimes: TBA

Elite only

NinjaTrader: TBA

January

Ran Aroussi: TBA

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Jackson Zones max-td The Elite Circle 32 July 8th, 2012 01:42 AM
Complex Cluster Indicators sidney7g MetaTrader 8 April 8th, 2012 02:35 PM
Excel for updating zones Avartanian EasyLanguage Programming 2 August 25th, 2011 02:35 PM
High degree of confluence in CL GaryD Commodities Futures Trading 26 July 23rd, 2011 02:01 AM
Fib confluence philloo The Elite Circle 19 May 9th, 2010 10:47 PM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 01:55 AM.

Copyright © 2017 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2017-12-13 in 0.16 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.92.201.232