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Improving on win percentages, how can I do that?


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Improving on win percentages, how can I do that?

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  #1 (permalink)
austin, texas
 
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About 8 days ago I started trading a system that I put together. I started with about $900.00 I have built my account up to about $1,900.00 net including commissions. I have been only trading 1 contract on the Russell. I know that it is still early but I am pleased with my results, but I am not pleased with the percent of winning trades. My stats show me to have a 39.77% profitable rate. To me this is really low. Although my profit and loss is descent, I would really like to increase my percent profitable rate. What I am asking is how does one go about sharpening the knife so to speak with my system. What can I do too either filter out trades I should not be taking or adding another indicator. My system is simple and is based on a couple of standard indicators for my set up and then a standard indicator for a trigger. Kind of new to the improvement on a system. My system is nothing fancy but it works for me. Any help would be appreciated as to what process I can take to improve my percent profitable rate. I have attached a screen shot of my Ninja account performance sheet so that one can see the nuts and bolts of the end factor. By the way this is real money not sim trading.

part 1: http://screencast.com/t/ErEhZuTWhq
part 2: http://screencast.com/t/Bf77Xg4nJl

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Hector

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  #2 (permalink)
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Win percentage is nothing to be overly concerned with.

What really matters is how much you are risking relative to the reward.

If you doubled an account in a few days the risk is likely way too much.

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  #3 (permalink)
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hector24 View Post
About 8 days ago I started trading a system that I put together. I started with about $900.00 I have built my account up to about $1,900.00 net including commissions. I have been only trading 1 contract on the Russell. I know that it is still early but I am pleased with my results, but I am not pleased with the percent of winning trades. My stats show me to have a 39.77% profitable rate. To me this is really low. Although my profit and loss is descent, I would really like to increase my percent profitable rate. What I am asking is how does one go about sharpening the knife so to speak with my system. What can I do too either filter out trades I should not be taking or adding another indicator. My system is simple and is based on a couple of standard indicators for my set up and then a standard indicator for a trigger. Kind of new to the improvement on a system. My system is nothing fancy but it works for me. Any help would be appreciated as to what process I can take to improve my percent profitable rate. I have attached a screen shot of my Ninja account performance sheet so that one can see the nuts and bolts of the end factor. By the way this is real money not sim trading.

part 1: performance part 1 - hector24's library
part 2: performance part 2 - hector24's library

Thanks
Hector

40% win rate is fine....mine has been around 36-37% now for months...and I am nicely profitable with it...i would like a better win rate but I realize its not the rate, its how big I win vs my losers.....thats really the only criteria and perhaps the real holy grail.....

Be happy with 40% and make sure you lose less than you win in terms of absolute dollars.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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  #4 (permalink)
austin, texas
 
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Big Mike View Post
Win percentage is nothing to be overly concerned with.

What really matters is how much you are risking relative to the reward.

If you doubled an account in a few days the risk is likely way too much.

Sent from my LG Optimus G Pro

I am risking 7 ticks per trade and I go to break even at +5 then I use my fib extensions for my targets
and trail from there.
Is that what you mean by risk based on reward. Maybe the question I am asking is how do I determine risk vs reward as the definition that you would consider.

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Hector

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  #5 (permalink)
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PandaWarrior View Post
40% win rate is fine....mine has been around 36-37% now for months...and I am nicely profitable with it...i would like a better win rate but I realize its not the rate, its how big I win vs my losers.....thats really the only criteria and perhaps the real holy grail.....

Be happy with 40% and make sure you lose less than you win in terms of absolute dollars.

Oh ok great Panda. I was really just wondering because I saw that on my stat sheet and was a little surprised. Great to hear that this could be in line with other traders like yourself. What concerns me is that I hear other traders say that they are 80 and 90 percent win rates. But I guess like you say it really amounts to what your bottom line is.

Thanks
Hector

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  #6 (permalink)
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hector24 View Post
Oh ok great Panda. I was really just wondering because I saw that on my stat sheet and was a little surprised. Great to hear that this could be in line with other traders like yourself. What concerns me is that I hear other traders say that they are 80 and 90 percent win rates. But I guess like you say it really amounts to what your bottom line is.

Thanks
Hector

People who say they have 80-90% win rates are either scalping or selling something or both. I mean, who wants to buy something that is advertised as winning only 40% of the time. That sounds stupid. Hence the high win rates.

I believe some highly disciplined scalpers could have those kind of win rates but its beyond my personal discipline level and I'm not sure it's sustainable over time.

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  #7 (permalink)
 
 
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After 1 week of trading, why would you be looking to improve your system? I can think of a few reasons, and none of them end well.

Here is a quick primer on why winning percentage is irrelevant...

Futures Magazine - April 2013

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  #8 (permalink)
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kevinkdog View Post
After 1 week of trading, why would you be looking to improve your system? I can think of a few reasons, and none of them end well.

Here is a quick primer on why winning percentage is irrelevant...

Futures Magazine - April 2013

Thanks Kevin, very interesting. Thanks, Hector

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  #9 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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kevinkdog View Post
After 1 week of trading, why would you be looking to improve your system? I can think of a few reasons, and none of them end well.

Here is a quick primer on why winning percentage is irrelevant...

Futures Magazine - April 2013

Thanks Kevin , I had been using the wrong formula

Anyways, I have met maybe 2 traders that consistently achieve greater than 70% win percentage over time. I sometimes catch a lucky streak and do 80%+ wins, but always 'revert' back to the 50-60% zone. For planning purposes, I just assume going in I will end up with a 50% win rate.

I would just like to add, based on my experience, avoiding large losing trades is as important as anything a trader can do. I have found in my trading I get a lot of small wins and small losses, and a few larger wins, and (hopefully) no large losses. At least keeping a small loss from becoming a large loss is one thing we can control.

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kevinkdog View Post
After 1 week of trading, why would you be looking to improve your system? I can think of a few reasons, and none of them end well.

Here is a quick primer on why winning percentage is irrelevant...

Futures Magazine - April 2013

Thanks for this Kevin.....we'll written and easy to understand.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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  #11 (permalink)
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You have more than doubled your money. That is excellent regardless of success rate. IMHO

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  #12 (permalink)
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its down to the amount of risk you are willing to accept and the account size you have. As long as you can be consistently in the green with a risk level that doesn't drive you personally mad its fine. A lot of people cant do that, that's why you see a lot lower winning %'s. I think this is where the psychological component comes in big time.

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Big Mike View Post
Win percentage is nothing to be overly concerned with.

What really matters is how much you are risking relative to the reward.

If you doubled an account in a few days the risk is likely way too much.

Sent from my LG Optimus G Pro

indeed...

russian roulette has a positive expected return, but has a standard deviation that could kill you

however, that doesn't seem to be an issue here- doubling an account that small is not difficult and probably isn't the result of taking excessive risk, rather than a function of a skewed distribution

being under capitalized; the rake and grind is more likely to be the cause of ruin

so, more than ever...

average time in market and ratio average win/average loss and average etd are the metrics you should be concerned with

improving those stats, is the only way you can grow an account that uses a system with a negative expectation

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