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I just saw this thread and have to chime in because I'm somewhat of an aficionado of the halfback phenomenon and have been using it for longer than I care to remember.
I have also been trying to script it for longer than I care to remember. I don't have the programming skills necessary to do that, but I paid several developers to do in TOS. We made some nice progress, but ultimately the project had to be abandoned due to TOS' limitations of not having an array function.
I have been told that it is possible to script it in Ninja, so maybe we can do it here...
First of all, as has been noted in this thread, it seems as if there isn't always a perfect retrace to the 50. Sometimes, it is the sum of two days, sometimes it is three days, etc. But is it really true? The short answer is no. There is always a retrace to the 50.
Second, the halfback technique is not a new discovery. Well before computers were invented, the market behaved in an exactly the same way it does today. Several authors have written books about the system starting in the 1930s. It seems that the first author who provided the systematic description of the system was Burton Pugh. His book, "The Great Wheat Secret" was originally published in 1933.
So, just for fun, I plotted maximum available data for SPX in Thinkorswim, which goes back to 1928.
Regardless of a time frame, there is always a retracement to the 50, even on a 1-minute chart, which is obviously too noisy to be useful. That said - and this is where it becomes difficult to script this - if there is no "traditional" 50% retracement, we're dealing with an extension. In other words, if after hitting either of the targets 123.6% or 161.8% the price did not come back to the 50%, we have an extension. If the price did come back to the 50%, the next traditional is plotted from the last bar that touched the 50% to either a high or a low, depending on a direction.
An extension is plotted from high to high or from low to low. Case in point, on SPX we had a high-to-high extension because the price did not come back to the 50%. It's plotted until there is a retracement to the 50: https://www.screencast.com/t/U09oMPLS
The last retracement is an interesting case because we have both, we have a traditional retrace to the 50 and a high-to-high extension retrace to the 50: https://www.screencast.com/t/J2tuACJLRd
I'm sure all of this is crystal clear and I don't expect any questions
While all liquid markets trade by the same, general 50% retracement rule, they have different "characters."
For example, ES tends to go up in extensions (high-to-high) but goes down using a traditional retracement to the 50. Things can get a little complicated because the levels get nested inside each other, so there might be overlap.
Let's take a look at the most recent development on the /ES. This is /ES, 20 days, 1 hour. We have a high-to-high extension: https://www.screencast.com/t/9XIAYmSA And another high-to-high extension: https://www.screencast.com/t/go6KJ7X3I5fU Notice the long wicks. I call it "let's scare the children." The wicks go past the 61.8 levels sometimes, but the close is above it or above the 50. Aren't stop hunts fun?
Now, where and how has this recent up move on ES started and progressed? It started with and progressed with traditional retracements that turned into extensions that I posted above. Let's take a look:
Here is a quick-and-dirty on the RTY. Different character, the same result. The move up started with a simple traditional, but then it turned into a combo or traditional retracements to the 50 and extensions: https://www.screencast.com/t/LxFnVkIrx
Hi all programmers here, I have two favours to request, they may be simple to acomplish code wise, but out of my reach.
On the indicators daysbalance and balanceline (both atatched) it's possible to add a sound alert when an arrow prints either up or down and send an alert email?
I have noticed some important differences in the calculations and print of the balance line indicators, the first indicator balanceline_NT7 seems to plot more accuratley the 50% line concept than the daysbalance supplyed by Cory, also the daysbalance indicator seems to repaint, that is the triangles print and then will move location.
As we can see the 50% line taken from 2 days seem to be acurate. below is the daysbalance indicator that prints a complete diferent line for the 50% line for the same 2 days calculations.
I can't understand the diference in results, maybe a programmer care to explain what the duality can be.
Thanks in advance for your assistance and Regards,
Beg to differ, no overcomplications on my side, just different results. Indeed the indicator should be simple. The other chart with the balanceline indicator has the same rational applied to it, no diffference in dates or in chart data template, hence the intrigue in my case.
Also, you told me that your indicators never repaint... well not quite the case with the daysbalance.
I am just trying to understand how the indicators aply to the 50% line theory.
