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unemployment record broken as of Jan 2011
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unemployment record broken as of Jan 2011

  #1 (permalink)
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unemployment record broken as of Jan 2011

Since the Great Depression, the greatest number of months that the unemployment rate has
exceeded 9% was 19 months, set in the recession of the early 80's. (S.S.)

The latest figures released on Jan 7, 2011 show 20 straight months of
unemployment exceeding 9%. (S.S.)

The first graph shows the unemployment figures for several months. Current
unemployment is now 9.4%. (S.S.)


The table helps explain why the reported unemployment rate fell from 9.8% to 9.4%. A key reason was the decline in the participation rate. If the participation rate had held steady at 64.5%, then the unemployment rate would have only declined to 9.64%.

So almost 2/3rds of the decline in the unemployment rate was related to the decline in the participation rate. Some of the decline might be from workers going back to school, but some is probably due to people just giving up.

The participation rate has fallen sharply from 66% at the start of the recession to 64.3% in December. That is almost 4 million workers who are no longer in the labor force and not counted as unemployed in U-3, although most are included as "discouraged workers" or "Marginally Attached to Labor Force" in U-6.

A decline in the unemployment rate mostly due to a decline in the participation rate is not good employment news.


Calculated Risk: Employment: The Declining Participation Rate


The the graph showing the unemployment rate looks bad, as unemployment is high, and
staying high. But the graph showing "U.S. unemployment level, part-time for economic reasons"
shows a much more telling view of how bad all this is. (S.S.)

'''part-time for economic reasons''' means, These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job.


Calculated Risk: Employment Summary and Part Time Workers, Unemployed over 26 Weeks

Also terrible, is the graph showing 'unemployed for over 26 weeks'. (S.S.)

Things have NOT turned around as yet regarding the U.S. unemployment figures, regardless of what you might be hearing on the news. (S.S.)

- Stephen

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unemployment record broken as of Jan 2011-lastest-graph.jpg   unemployment record broken as of Jan 2011-part-time-economic-reasons.jpg   unemployment record broken as of Jan 2011-unemployed-over-26-weeks.jpg  
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  #2 (permalink)
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"There are three kinds of lies: Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics"
-Mark Twain

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  #3 (permalink)
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Slipknot511 View Post
"There are three kinds of lies: Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics"
-Mark Twain

I've heard that saying before regarding statistics, but one must remember that
statistics aren't the problem.

This was written about 3000 years ago from the Book of Proverbs (Old Testament):

Buy the truth, and don't sell it.

Why? because it never goes down in value.

The problem is, that there are those that are incompetent and/or corrupt.

Maybe there are other reasons for the truth (about whatever subject) not getting out,
but these two reasons are the only ones I can think of off-hand.

Some people are without adequate ability.
Some people believe that a lie will serve them better.

From Jan. 8, 2011 (that is, after the most recent release of the unemployment numbers):

Excerpt from:

Weekly Address: President Obama Touts Benefits of Tax Cut Package to Take Place in the New Year | The White House

{Economists disagree on the number of jobs that must be created each month on average to keep pace
with population growth. The ballpark figure seems to be 120,000 jobs per month. Keep that in mind also
when reading the President's statements below.

Last month, our economy added more than 100,000 private sector jobs and the unemployment rate fell sharply. This follows encouraging economic news from increased auto sales to continued expansion of our manufacturing sector.

Now, we know that these numbers can bounce around from month to month. But the trend is clear. We saw 12 straight months of private sector job growth – the first time that’s been true since 2006. The economy added 1.3 million jobs last year. And each quarter was stronger than the last, which means the pace of hiring is picking up.

- President Barack Obama

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