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polar bears first, Americans last
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polar bears first, Americans last

  #41 (permalink)
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“Just when you publish something and it looks like you’re seeing a connection,” Dr. Wallace said, “nature has a way of humbling us.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/25/science/earth/25cold.html?_r=1

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  #42 (permalink)
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Victim of Availability Heuristic?


redratsal View Post
“Just when you publish something and it looks like you’re seeing a connection,” Dr. Wallace said, “nature has a way of humbling us.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/25/science/earth/25cold.html?_r=1

I downloaded a paper from the website of the Turtle Traders. It explains some of the main findings of Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahnemann, the developpers of prospect theory.

Anyone citing the current cold winter may have fallen prey to availability heuristic. Prospect theory is highly relevant to trading and moreover quite entertaining. Currently reading this book by Richard Thaler: Nudge. It is a recommended read.

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  #43 (permalink)
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Fat Tails View Post
I downloaded a paper from the website of the Turtle Traders. It explains some of the main findings of Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahnemann, the developpers of prospect theory.

Anyone citing the current cold winter may have fallen prey to availability heuristic. Prospect theory is highly relevant to trading and moreover quite entertaining. Currently reading this book by Richard Thaler: Nudge. It is a recommended read.

IMO page 9 of your document Guarding against Bias is the most interesting one, studies on climate changes were conducted not earlier than 18th century, natural causes have influenced the climate much before and during the industrial revolution. Take for example the eruption of vulcanoes; they contribute to ozone depletion, as well as to both cooling and warming of the earth's atmosphere.

With regards to readings and theories I would like to remind you Karl Popper's falsiability assumption "... a theory should be considered scientific if and only if it is falsifiable..."

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  #44 (permalink)
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redratsal View Post
IMO page 9 of your document Guarding against Bias is the most interesting one, studies on climate changes were conducted not earlier than 18th century, natural causes have influenced the climate much before and during the industrial revolution. Take for example the eruption of vulcanoes; they contribute to ozone depletion, as well as to both cooling and warming of the earth's atmosphere.

With regards to readings and theories I would like to remind you Karl Popper's falsiability assumption "... a theory should be considered scientific if and only if it is falsifiable..."

I fully agree with your answer. It very difficult to make a difference between the anthropogenic part and the natural part of climatic change. By the way, sun activity has had a larger impact on our climate than volcanic activity during the last centuries.

However, there are alarming sign of a global heating, whether anthropogenic or not. As there is no way currently to exact model to establish a causal relationship between carbon dioxide emissions or methane emissions from agriculture and our climate, it seems prudent not to increase the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to unprecedented levels.

If you look at the graphic below - this is no theory, but observed data: Everybody who neglects or sugarcoats the problem, is acting in an irresponsible way, as the consequences for our environment are still unknown.

Under George Bush, America has shown leadership in irresponsibility and awarded a license to all poorer countries to follow path.

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  #45 (permalink)
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I agree with you 101% especially on the Kyoto protocol.

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  #46 (permalink)
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I didn't really check out the Canada Free Press article. I do however
find the saying that global warming has become the new religion very true.
There are environmental groups in the U.S. that will not change their views
on global warming. They just won't. If it should snow this July they will still
hold on to 'global warming' or maybe they say 'climate change' as I posted
several days ago in this thread. With 'climate change' anything different means
something bad is happening.

================================================================================
New York City and Newark, N.J., picked up a whopping 19 inches of snow. For the month, both cities now have piled on 36-38 inches, making January 2011 the snowiest January on record! Bridgeport, Conn., Islip, N.Y. and New York-La Guardia airport have also now seen their snowiest Januaries.

Hartford, Conn., now has nearly 57 inches this month, beating December 1945 as the snowiest month on record.

January 27, 2011

Yet Another Major Snowstorm Hits Northeast - weather.com

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  #47 (permalink)
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I reccomend this series of videos on the topic.

The video maker is very objective and thorough in his research:

YouTube - potholer54's Channel

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  #48 (permalink)
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I've just shoveled my one octillionth snowflake.

If I get ambitious I'll post how incredible (ie. bad) this winter was
for the U.S. sometime after the spring equinox.

This winter won't soon be forgotten. I just hope people in general
in the U.S. pay attention to the reality of all this snow and cold and
cast the global warming propaganda of the early 21st century into
the trash heap of history.
=================================================
People have short memories though. I just found this. Maybe this is
what is needed:


Fimbulwinter is three successive winters where snow comes in from all directions, without any intervening summer.

Fimbulwinter - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

=======================================================



Chicago's 20.2 inches of snow was the city's third-largest amount on record.

"A storm that produces a swath of 20-inch snow is really something we'd see once every 50 years - maybe," National Weather Service meteorologist Thomas Spriggs said.




Feb. 2, 2011


Nearly Half of U.S. Buried Under Snow - CBS News

Million, Billion, Trillion...

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stephenszpak View Post
I didn't really check out the Canada Free Press article. I do however
find the saying that global warming has become the new religion very true.
There are environmental groups in the U.S. that will not change their views
on global warming. They just won't. If it should snow this July they will still
hold on to 'global warming' or maybe they say 'climate change' as I posted
several days ago in this thread. With 'climate change' anything different means
something bad is happening.

================================================================================
New York City and Newark, N.J., picked up a whopping 19 inches of snow. For the month, both cities now have piled on 36-38 inches, making January 2011 the snowiest January on record! Bridgeport, Conn., Islip, N.Y. and New York-La Guardia airport have also now seen their snowiest Januaries.

Hartford, Conn., now has nearly 57 inches this month, beating December 1945 as the snowiest month on record.

January 27, 2011

Yet Another Major Snowstorm Hits Northeast - weather.com


OMG!!!!! The snow here is so deep that when I need to go anywhere, I call my neighbors across the street and have them watch for street traffic when I pull out of my driveway.

where the driveway meets the street the snow is piled to 6 ft. Its impossible to see from inside the car!!!

RJay

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  #50 (permalink)
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I don't mean to sound offensive here, but anyone saying things to the effect of "Global warming can't be true, look how extremely cold this winter is!", really needs to educate themselves on climate change.

Climate change does not rule out these types of events, and may in fact be predictive of them. They can arise for all types of reason, for example warmer oceans creating more rising moist air, causing severe snow storms and colder temperatures in other parts of the globe. However when the temperatures are averaged out over the globe, there is no question at all there is an upward trend in temperature.

A Lot of the problem stems from the term "global warming". The correct term is "climate change". Overall the planet is warming, however this does not mean that winters will suddenly become warm. Weather systems may contain more energy as a whole due to certain warming factors, which can lead to more extreme winters as well as more extreme summers.

I really don't care much for the subject so that is all I want to say.

Anyone interested in the subject would do well to watch the videos in the link i posted earlier.

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