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AI beats Human Poker players. Could this be a game-changer for automated trading?
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AI beats Human Poker players. Could this be a game-changer for automated trading?

  #11 (permalink)
Seth
Salt Lake City, Utah
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Jigsaw, NinjaTrader8
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tpredictor View Post
Here is what might be worth considering

HFT -> Edge is simple but requires proper infrastructure.
AI -> Edge is complex and more like discretionary trading and does not require infrastructure but may benefit from it.

I have hypothesized and expressed in the past that discretionary traders should have an advantage over most traditional systematic strategies in the area of robustness because complexity is generally required or associated with modeling complex phenomena. Most system traders do not try to capture that complexity because without advanced data science techniques and expert domain knowledge, extra complexity will result in fragility and over-fitting.

What AI allows for though is for complex strategies that can capture the type of robust, market cognition edges that traditional systems can't capture. If you can build working complex strategies then it makes it more difficult for the crowd to copy your techniques which also lends to robustness.

I worked in technology at a big bank, and this is certainly a large part of how they implemented algorithmic trading strategies. There was a large number of inputs that went into the overall system.

However, there is a missing component. The market is always changing. So such algorithms have to be constantly updated to keep up with current and expected market conditions.

This is why I reject for instance the idea that there's some algorithm just around the corner that will remove all edge from humans in the market. The advantage that the robot has is that it is consistent, but that just makes it easier to game.

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