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China Futures Trading
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China Futures Trading

  #1 (permalink)
Elite Member
Tokyo, Japan
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: S5
Broker/Data: Stage5
Favorite Futures: Commodities
 
Posts: 38 since Dec 2015
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China Futures Trading

The FT is reporting that Chinese retail investors who are not able to trade stocks as they please due to regulatory issues are now piling into the futures markets and pushing markets around for commodities such as cotton, steel, iron ore and eggs, https://next.ft.com/content/5094d2e8-1387-11e6-91da-096d89bd2173.

I always had a hard time believing that retail traders could be pushing around stock markets in China as I have always assumed institutional investors had to have significantly more volume than retail traders. If there are 100k+ retail accounts trading the same futures contracts I can imagine how that would overcome institutional trading volume.

Since futures trading is a zero sum game playing your opponent is just as important as playing the game so I'm trying to figure out what is the best way to play the Chinese retail futures investors. Trend following seems like death by a thousand cuts as the investors seem to have a short term mentality. Volume profile seems to be valid as you may be able to pick the turning points when volume at extended value areas decreases (don't know if I'm using the terminology correctly so just think of this as low volume at prices above or below accepted value areas).

I'd like to hear other opinions on this.

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