Europe's Huge Failure Is About To Be On Full Display - News and Current Events | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading

Europe's Huge Failure Is About To Be On Full Display
Updated: Views / Replies:257 / 0
Created: by kbit Attachments:0

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 90,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors Ė all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you donít need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Thread Tools Search this Thread

Europe's Huge Failure Is About To Be On Full Display

  #1 (permalink)
Elite Member
Aurora, Il USA
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Favorite Futures: futures
kbit's Avatar
Posts: 5,884 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,303 given, 3,334 received

Europe's Huge Failure Is About To Be On Full Display

This might seem obvious, but it's worth repeating: European economic policy has been a complete failure. By every measure, things have been a disaster for years. Nobody is doing anything right.

This coming Thursday we get the latest European GDP report, and the prognosis is really grim.

Here's Carl Weinberg of High Frequency Economics telling it straight. If you don't want to read the full paragraph, you can just read the first, bolded sentence.

For Euroland, the big picture is that the economy is in its seventh year of depression. On our estimate of a 0.7% contraction in the second quarter, GDP was still 3.2% lower than it was in the first quarter of 2008, when the depression began. Eurolandís economy actually contracted in the first quarter of this year when you exclude Germanyís unexpected surge to a 3.3% annualized rate of growth. Only people who were misled by Markitís untested and unproven PMIs believed that such growth was real and sustainable.

Our estimate of second quarter GDP for the Euro Zone includes a contraction of Germanyís economy at a 2% annualized rate, reversing the windfall in the unexplained and inexplicable first quarter spurt. If our forecast proves correct, average GDP growth for Germany in the first half of 2014 will work out to 0.7% at an annualized rate, clearly less than potential but very much in line with the experience over the last few years. Our estimate for Franceís economy is a more horrible contraction of 1.1% for the quarter, or 4.3% at an annualized rate.

Back in 2010-2012, Europe did have a crisis, which it largely solved, and that was the sovereign debt crisis. That was fixed when the ECB offered an implicit debt backstop to every country. That caused borrowing costs to plunge and removed the fears that a country would default and be forced to leave the common currency.

But nothing else has worked. The countries are still largely on an austerity track (even as debt loads continue to rise) and the ECB has twiddled its thumbs, letting loan growth and inflation fade.

And Q2 likely won't mark the end of the pain.

Here's Citi's forecast for dismal GDP growth and inflation that misses ECB targets:

We lower our 2014 & 2015 GDP forecasts by 0.1pp each year to 1.1% and 1.7%, respectively and also shave a decimal point off our 2014 inflation forecast to 0.5%. Although our bean-count models suggest that euro area real GDP growth was around 0.4% QQ in 2Q-14, our bottom-up estimates point to 0.3% QQ. To be sure, most business surveys have been painting a somewhat less constructive picture of economic activity in the latter part of the first half.

Our analysis of the business cycle highlighted risks that the initial and strongest phase of business cycle improvements could be behind us. Recent developments in Ukraine and the persistence of a strong euro indicate that the balance of risks to economic activity remains skewed to the downside, notwithstanding better signs from the U.S. and China. Turning to inflation, strong base effects will likely drive the euro area headline rate to a new multi-year low of 0.3% YY in July (flash estimate on 31 July), with limited prospects of a rebound before Q4, in our view. Our forecast of weak wage dynamics suggests core inflation will stay low, in contrast to the ECBís expectations of an imminent rebound.

As the above hints at, on top of everything else, now there's the Russia situation and the sanctions, which won't help anyone's confidence.

It's all gloom, with no lights at the end of the tunnel.

European Depression - Business Insider

Reply With Quote


futures io > > > > Europe's Huge Failure Is About To Be On Full Display

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

Wyckoff Hunting for Great Risk/Reward Ratio w/Gary Fullett

Elite only

Digging into the Details of iSystems w/Stage 5 & iSystems

Jun 5

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
The Volcker Failure kbit News and Current Events 0 February 24th, 2012 10:37 PM
The Myth of Japanís Failure kbit News and Current Events 0 January 10th, 2012 02:53 PM
U.S. Debt Committee Says It May Be on the Brink of Failure Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 November 20th, 2011 01:00 PM
Europe Set for More Losses on Huge Day for Earnings Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 July 28th, 2011 02:20 AM

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 03:58 PM.

Copyright © 2018 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432,
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2018-05-22 in 0.08 seconds with 19 queries on phoenix via your IP