Inflation is becoming a question of when, not if - News and Current Events | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading

Inflation is becoming a question of when, not if
Updated: Views / Replies:392 / 0
Created: by kbit Attachments:0

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 100,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors – all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you don’t need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Thread Tools Search this Thread

Inflation is becoming a question of when, not if

  #1 (permalink)
Aurora, Il USA
Trading Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Favorite Futures: futures
kbit's Avatar
Posts: 5,897 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,312 given, 3,358 received

Inflation is becoming a question of when, not if

At this point, most experts agree that inflation is set to rise. The question is when. And a clue could come this week, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the latest readings for both the Consumer Price Index and the Producer Prices Index for Final Demand.

"I'm looking at these numbers with great interest," said Jim Iuorio of TJM Institutional Services. "If you look back at the last set of unemployment data we got, the wage growth was somewhat stagnant. And then we saw a labor number that contradicted that.

"So I think it's time to become keenly interested in inflation. I'm not saying it's time to become very concerned with inflation. We could know that later in the week, though."

A falling unemployment rate is generally expected to lead to a rise in wages, as companies have to pay more to their workers due to the tighter supply, and this is expected to lead to widespread inflation. But so far, that simply hasn't happened. Average hourly earnings have only risen by 4 percent over the past two years, even as the unemployment rate has fallen from 8.2 percent to 6.3. (Incidentally, S&P 500 earnings have risen more than 9 percent from Q1 2012 to Q1 2014, according to FactSet.)

For Deutsche Bank senior US economist Carl Riccadonna, part of the issue is that we haven't yet seen the impact of the labor market's growth.

"We know we crossed above trend growth toward the end of last year. And inflation tends to lag by about six quarters, so toward the end of the year we will see inflation pressures start to tick up. But that will really represent a lagged response to the recent growth acceleration, rather than the fact that we're just getting to a certain level unemployment," Riccadonna said. "Still, by that time, we'll probably be closer to 5.5 percent on the unemployment rate, and that will lead to meaningful inflation pressures as well."

While Riccadonna is not overly concerned about inflation, he has little doubt that it's on the horizon.

"We're going into a period when there are going to be persistent upward inflation pressures. Not next week, and probably not even in the first half of this year. But we'll see increasing wage-driven inflation pressures as we go deeper into the back half of this year."

Of course, wage growth isn't the only driver of inflation. And some say other pressures could lead to higher prices in the nearer-term.

"Rents are rising a lot, and with 35 percent of the population renting—the highest since 1995—rents are very important," said Peter Boockvar, chief market analyst at the Lindsey Group. "Throw in commodity prices, and you have the potential for inflation numbers to start surprising to the upside."

Economists aren't expecting to hear too dramatic this week. A price rise of 0.3 percent is expected in April's CPI data, and a 0.2 percent rise in the PPI-FD, according to economists polled by Reuters.

And with the 10-year Treasury note yielding just 2.6 percent, it appears that fixed income investors are none too worried about the prospect of inflation, either.

But if the economy continues to grow, the labor market continues to tighten, and certain key pockets of the US economy start to put serious pressure on prices, the inflation outlook could end up changing dramatically between now and the end of the year.

Inflation is becoming a question of when, not if

Reply With Quote


futures io > > > > Inflation is becoming a question of when, not if

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

futures io is celebrating 10-years w/ over $18,000 in prizes!

Right now

$250 Amazon Gift Cards with our "Thanks Contest" challenge!

Right now

Using Order Flow Analysis & Longer Term Trading w/John @ No BS Trading

Elite only

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Is Inflation Of 2% Enough For You? Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 October 28th, 2013 11:00 PM
A Little Inflation Can Be a Dangerous Thing kbit News and Current Events 0 September 19th, 2011 06:55 PM
Inflation Actually Near 10% Using Older Measure Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 April 12th, 2011 08:10 PM
Bernanke Says US Inflation Spike Won't Last Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 April 5th, 2011 12:50 AM
No Inflation? That's Not What Food Prices Are Saying in US Quick Summary News and Current Events 1 February 28th, 2011 08:33 PM

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:04 AM. (this page content is cached, log in for real-time version)

Copyright © 2020 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432,
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts