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Will Bernanke Give the Market What It Wants?
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Will Bernanke Give the Market What It Wants?

  #1 (permalink)
Quick Summary
Will Bernanke Give the Market What It Wants?

Financial markets are likely to continue to expect another round of Fed easing. But will Bernanke give it to them at his speech in Jackson Hole or just dangle the carrot?

More on CNBC...

Reply to share your thoughts on this current event.

  #2 (permalink)
Fortitudo et Honor
Austin, TX
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Favorite Futures: Futures
Posts: 882 since Mar 2011
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Judging from testimony from the other board members, he won't do anything concrete at this meeting.

The consenus is that if the Fed does change policy it won't be before the Sep 12th meeting.

And even so, it's particularly risky right before an election. The Fed certainly doesn't want to draw more attention to itself than it already has recently and doesn't want to see too political.

The economic data just hasn't been bad enough in my opinion for them to risk being perceived as overly political.

The other member of the board said that they would need to see some running unemployment reports of job creation less than 100k to have proper ammunition.

We are however in a wierd "buy-buy" scenario, where the market has the thread a needle in order to sell. If the market data is really bad and employment is really bad....buy, because they'll do another round of magic tricks.

If the market data is good and employment data good, buy for obvious reasons.

However, if the market data is blah and the employment data is blah, you could find a smaller short opportunity.

"A dumb man never learns. A smart man learns from his own failure and success. But a wise man learns from the failure and success of others."
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  #3 (permalink)
Elite Member
Los Angeles, CA
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Platform: TOS, TradeStation
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Posts: 6 since Sep 2012
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Mr Bernanke is an honest man with an honest bias (toward preventing another 1930's style depression). He after all based his academic career on studying and learning from the tragic mistakes made by very smart people that drastically worsened the world-wide economic calamity of the 1930's.

Are these lessons the appropriate ones for today? Sure wish I and many others knew the answer to that. History does repeat itself, but mostly in unique ways.

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  #4 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
spokane, wa
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: tradestation
Favorite Futures: cl
Posts: 28 since Jan 2014
Thanks: 0 given, 10 received

I say yes. He seems to always keep his language as market friendly as possible.

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