Morgan Stanley Still Sees Strong Chances For QE3 - News and Current Events | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


Morgan Stanley Still Sees Strong Chances For QE3
Updated: Views / Replies:679 / 1
Created: by kbit Attachments:0

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 90,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors – all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you don’t need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

Morgan Stanley Still Sees Strong Chances For QE3

  #1 (permalink)
Elite Member
Aurora, Il USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Favorite Futures: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,872 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,301 given, 3,332 received

Morgan Stanley Still Sees Strong Chances For QE3

Morgan Stanley continues to think the Federal Reserve will provide more stimulus via bond buying this year, even as improving economic data have led many in the market to think the sun may be setting on that particular strategy.

"For some time, our call has been that the Federal Reserve will undertake additional balance-sheet action in the first half of 2012," writes Vincent Reinhart, an economist with the bank and a former top-level Federal Reserve staffer.

He argues it's most likely the Fed will act to expand its balance sheet via Treasury and mortgage bond buying--in market parlance, QE3--at either the April or June Federal Open Market Committee, and that the ultimate size of the program could tack on $500 billion to $700 billion onto what is currently a $2.9 trillion balance sheet.

There's also a chance they will put in place a modified version of the current effort to sell short-dated bonds to buy longer-dated securities.

Why act? Reinhart says the second half of the year will box the Fed in politically. Officials will not wish to be seen starting a high-profile action in the thick of the presidential campaign. Also, he reckons growth will still be too weak, and inflation will be falling short of the Fed's 2% target.

The recent improvement in economic news, especially on the jobs front, will increasingly be seen as a head fake, the Morgan Stanley economist said. "We share the view that the fillip to economic growth associated with a restocking of inventories is fading and that real GDP growth will slow notably in the current quarter," Reinhart said. "Anxiety-inducing headlines that the economy is losing steam will be conducive to Fed action."

The forecaster noted that he understands how market participants may be marking down the chances of action, but he said part of that may be attributable to a misreading of some of the recent Fed rhetoric. Reinhart acknowledged the surge in oil prices creates a decent chance that inflation data may look less benign.

That said, he believes Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will view those increases as something that lowers consumer spending power. Put another way, oil prices are a greater negative for economic growth, in the Fed leader's way of thinking.

For many in markets, the case for the sort of stimulus Reinhart describes will face a major test Friday with the release of the February jobs report. It's expected to come in pretty strong and continue the trend of falling unemployment rates. But as fast as the jobless rate may be improving, it remains historically high. It's easy to see why central bankers might want to act.

Late last week, San Francisco Fed President John Williams noted that if the recovery suddenly got weaker, or inflation stayed well below the Fed's 2% target, he could see the Fed buying mortgage bonds, in a bid to stimulate growth. In testimony before Congress last week, Bernanke kept his options open and didn't commit to any particular policy outlook.

On Monday, however, Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher made the case for those who see little value in more stimulus. "I am personally perplexed by the continued preoccupation, bordering upon fetish, that Wall Street exhibits regarding the potential for further monetary accommodation," he said.

He went on to say a huge amount of the stimulus the Fed has already delivered is "lying fallow, not being employed in the real economy." Furrowing his brow, he observed, "Financial market operators keep looking and hoping for more. Why? I think it may be because they have become hooked on the monetary morphine we provided when we performed massive reconstructive surgery."

eFXnews : FED WATCH: Morgan Stanley Still Sees Strong Chances For QE3

Reply With Quote
 
  #2 (permalink)
Elite Member
Aurora, Il USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Favorite Futures: futures
 
kbit's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,872 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,301 given, 3,332 received

This sounds about right....I suspect the powers that be will run the markets down enough to create the imputus to act on this.
What it comes down to is it will drop and then go back up...even to new highs in November and then dump in Dec or Jan and get seriously ugly after the election.
This is almost to easy to see.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to kbit for this post:

Reply



futures io > > > > Morgan Stanley Still Sees Strong Chances For QE3

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

Jigsaw Trading: TBA

Elite only

FuturesTrader71: TBA

Elite only

NinjaTrader: TBA

Jan 18

RandBots: TBA

Jan 23

GFF Brokers & CME Group: Futures & Bitcoin

Elite only

Adam Grimes: TBA

Elite only

Ran Aroussi: TBA

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Morgan Stanley, UBS, Goldman May Be Cut by Moody’s GridKing News and Current Events 0 February 16th, 2012 10:15 AM
Morgan Stanley On What Happens Next In Greece, And Why It Is All Very Euro Negative Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 November 1st, 2011 11:18 PM
Why Morgan Stanley Is Battling A Massive Selloff In Its Shares Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 October 5th, 2011 03:20 PM
Morgan Stanley Cuts Outlook, Cites Threat of Recession Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 August 18th, 2011 09:10 AM
Morgan Stanley Swings to Profit, Smashes Estimates Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 July 21st, 2010 09:30 AM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 05:09 AM.

Copyright © 2017 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2017-12-18 in 0.08 seconds with 19 queries on phoenix via your IP 23.22.136.56