Merkozy On the Verge of Losing Sarkozy - News and Current Events | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading

Merkozy On the Verge of Losing Sarkozy
Updated: Views / Replies:655 / 0
Created: by kbit Attachments:0

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 90,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors Ė all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you donít need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Thread Tools Search this Thread

Merkozy On the Verge of Losing Sarkozy

  #1 (permalink)
Elite Member
Aurora, Il USA
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Favorite Futures: futures
kbit's Avatar
Posts: 5,884 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,303 given, 3,334 received

Merkozy On the Verge of Losing Sarkozy

The Sarkozy half of the Merkel-Sarkozy alliance, a pairing that's jokingly referred to as "Merkozy," is on the verge of fading into history.

And that spells risks for the sanctity of the euro.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy is trailing socialist Francois Hollande in his bid for re-election, a danger for the euro zone that markets appear to have overlooked.

Hollande "will be more hesitant to toe the hard line and may even have a hard time passing a constitutional budget amendment," says Sassan Ghahramani, president and chief executive of SGH Macro Advisors, a think tank based in New York.

Hollande has pledged to renegotiate Europe's "new agreement on fiscal discipline" and has called for the European Central Bank to play a larger role, including issuing a common euro bond.

Both ideas are strongly opposed by both Chancellor Angela Merkel and the German parliament.

On top of that there's a financial split. Nothing is more damaging to a partnership than a divergence in incomes of the senior partners, in this case France and Germany. And nothing stands out more in an election year than jobs.

In December, the unemployment rate in Germany reached 6.8%, a low not seen since 1991, while in France the unemployment rate rose to 9.3%. Some 2.85 million French voters are now unemployed.

Germany's bonds are also looked upon more favorably. The spread between 10-year German and French bonds has widened by more than 100 basis points since this time last year as contagion from the euro-zone debt crisis has started to eat at France's fiscal credibility. The very real possibility of a downgrade for France's debt rating will keep that differential in place and could drive an even-deeper wedge between the two key economies at the euro zone's core.

Germany's narrative is that its success came from a large restructuring of its work force and austere reforms that took place in the middle of the last decade when German unemployment was as high as 11.5%. It is this example that Merkel has tried to impress upon the rest of Europe to follow. The problem is that Germany rightfully embarked on reform during a global boom time; the rest of Europe is being asked to do so at the moment of highest stress in financial markets.

Will France follow suit or will French voters--many of whom are now giving a lift in the polls to Marine Le Pen, the daughter of far-right National Front founder Jean-Marie Le Pen--reject Berlin's advice and upend the alliance with Germany?

To be sure, even if Franco-German tensions rise in this way, it doesn't necessarily spell the end of the euro zone. Many observers share the view of David R. Kotok, chairman and chief investment officer of Cumberland Advisors, who believes "Europe will find a way" to stick together because "they do not have a death wish."

But even with political elites cognizant of the chaos that a breakup in the currency union would bring, politics have a habit of driving things toward the abyss--as we've seen throughout this crisis. And if the politics shift, the relationship that is the fulcrum of the euro zone is put in jeopardy.

The euro zone exists "only if France and Germany closely cooperate," says Daniel Stelter, senior partner of the Boston Consulting Group based in Berlin.

Stelter argues that eventually "austerity will fail," with German-prescribed fiscal belt-tightening producing larger, not smaller, deficits, and so thrusting the region into a "doom loop."

If the pain becomes too great, it gives a boost to anti-euro candidates such as Le Pen, which in turn raises the political pressure on more mainstream politicians.

Although Stelter does not see a Franco-German rupture as imminent, his analysis of the forces that could bring us closer to that moment is a reminder that foreign exchange traders should start paying close attention to the French electoral campaign

eFXnews : Merkozy On the Verge of Losing Sarkozy

Reply With Quote


futures io > > > > Merkozy On the Verge of Losing Sarkozy

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

Wyckoff Hunting for Great Risk/Reward Ratio w/Gary Fullett

Elite only

Digging into the Details of iSystems w/Stage 5 & iSystems

Jun 5

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy face new Euro battles kbit News and Current Events 0 January 1st, 2012 03:36 PM
France's Sarkozy Serves Up Tough Love to Euro Zone Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 December 2nd, 2011 03:20 AM
Papandreou to Meet with Merkel, Sarkozy Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 November 2nd, 2011 09:10 AM
Sarkozy Says Talks Progressing on European Banks, Greece Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 October 23rd, 2011 11:50 AM
Social Security disability on verge of insolvency kbit News and Current Events 0 August 22nd, 2011 04:13 PM

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:16 AM.

Copyright © 2018 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432,
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2018-05-23 in 0.08 seconds with 19 queries on phoenix via your IP