Why Traders Donít Trust the ADPís Read on Fridayís Jobs Report. - News and Current Events | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading

Why Traders Donít Trust the ADPís Read on Fridayís Jobs Report.
Updated: Views / Replies:699 / 0
Created: by kbit Attachments:0

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 90,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors Ė all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you donít need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Thread Tools Search this Thread

Why Traders Donít Trust the ADPís Read on Fridayís Jobs Report.

  #1 (permalink)
Elite Member
Aurora, Il USA
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation
Favorite Futures: futures
kbit's Avatar
Posts: 5,884 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 3,303 given, 3,334 received

Why Traders Donít Trust the ADPís Read on Fridayís Jobs Report.

That giant thud you felt at 8:15 Eastern time this morning was not another freak earthquake but rather the impact of thousands of jaws on Wall Street hitting the floor all at once when the ADP December payroll number hit the tape.

But traders quickly gathered themselves and moved past the blockbuster number, largely because there are bigger European fish to fry, but also because they still canít bring themselves to trust the ADPís numbers.

RBCís Tom Porcelli sent along this chart that illustrates the reason for the skepticism about ADP numbers, particularly around the holidays.

As you can see, since 2006, the average gap between initial December ADP numbers and the initial private non-farm payroll numbers reported by the government has been 122,000 jobs. In November, itís been 120,000 jobs.
Those are numbers big enough to drive Michigan Stadium through. For perspective, the average miss of all non-December months has been 79,000.
Porcelli writes:
We cannot be more clear on this: ADP has done a very poor job giving you an early read on private payrolls. This is the historical record Ė not a slice-it-up analysis by a couple of economists.
Let us be further clear: after years of just a downright dour backdrop, we would love nothing more than for this number to be right (it gets tiring writing about how dismal things are), but we will not let a mediocre indicator with a bad forecasting track record dictate when itís time to change our tune.
As for our estimate for Friday, given the above we are not changing our Private NFP call of 137k.
Remember, as Joel Prakken of Macroeconomic Advisers, which helps ADP put these numbers together every month, said on CNBC this morning, subsequent revisions to the governmentís NFP data have made the ADPís track record look a little better.

Still, traders are going to trade on the initial NFP read they get tomorrow. Thatís probably unfair and illogical, but itís the world we live in, and until we start getting revisions, these are the only numbers we have.

Why Traders Don't Trust the ADP's Read on Friday's Jobs Report - MarketBeat - WSJ

Reply With Quote


futures io > > > > Why Traders Donít Trust the ADPís Read on Fridayís Jobs Report.

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

Wyckoff Hunting for Great Risk/Reward Ratio w/Gary Fullett

Elite only

Digging into the Details of iSystems w/Stage 5 & iSystems

Jun 5

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Look Ahead: Focus Already on Friday's Monthly Jobs Report Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 March 3rd, 2011 02:40 AM
Friday's Jobs Report May Be Priced Into Market Already Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 February 4th, 2011 01:00 AM
Friday's Jobs Report Will Be Key for Marketsóand Fed Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 September 2nd, 2010 06:20 PM
Friday's Jobs Report: Forecast Is for More Disappointing News Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 August 5th, 2010 07:00 PM
Friday Jobs Report Could Divide Bears From Economists Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 July 1st, 2010 11:00 PM

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 11:43 PM.

Copyright © 2018 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2018-05-26 in 0.07 seconds with 19 queries on phoenix via your IP