As was reported yesterday, Iran has now officially commenced its 10 day wargame exercise in the Straits of Hormuz. What happens next is 10 days in which one false move, either planned or false flagged, can have some serious (if required by the status quo) consequences: after all WTI is at $100, and the ECB has quietly "printed" $700 billion in the past 6 months, with the Fed not far behind - there has to be some implicit backstop to keep crude from soaring once it becomes clear that print mode is on, and the only way that can happen is the "possibility" of expanded oil supply through control of the main supply channels. From Reuters: "Iran began 10 days of naval exercises in the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, raising concern about a possible closure of the world's most strategic oil transit channel in the event of any outbreak of military conflict between Tehran and the West. The military drill, dubbed "Velayat-e 90", comes as the tension between the West and Iran is escalating over the Islamic state's nuclear programme. Iranian authorities have given no indication the strait will be closed during the exercise, and it has not been shut during previous drills. "Displaying Iran's defensive and deterrent power as well as relaying a message of peace and friendship in the Strait of Hormuz and the free waters are the main objectives of the drill," Sayyari said. "It will also display the country's power to control the region as well as testing new missiles, torpedoes and weapons."
Some analysts and diplomats believe the Islamic Republic could try to block the strait in the event of any war with the West over suspicions it is seeking atom bombs. Iran's arch-foes Israel and the United States have not ruled out military action if diplomacy and sanctions fail to rein in Iran's nuclear work.
Iran says it wants nuclear energy only for peaceful ends.
"The enforcement of the decision to close of the Strait of Hormuz is certainly within Iran's armed forces' capability, but such a decision should be made by the country's top authorities," Iranian Navy commander Habibollah Sayyari was quoted as saying by the semi-official ILNA labour news agency.
Iran has said in the past that it would respond to any attack by targeting U.S. interests in the region and Israel, as well as closing the strait, the only access channel for eight U.S.-aligned, Gulf Arab states to foreign markets.
"Velayat" is a Persian word for "supremacy" and it is currently used as a title of deference for the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Those wishing to follow up to date developments on the wargames, and any potential surprises, can do so via the Press TV site.
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No worry. The war has already been started. It all matters is how it ends.
1. Both sides, Iran and USA are keeping it quiet, the former is not capable of fighting back and the latter sees no need to raise concerns.
2. At least four recent major explossions in nuclear and military related facilities in Iran are quietly being pushed under the rug.
3. Congress passed sanctions rule on Iran's central bank. No money, trade or not, can change hand with Iran.
4. Dollar, Euro, and Gold have hit new highs in Iran. Free dollar has a 10-15 % markup over the official bank rates.
5. Iran suspended issuing LC for trades with UAE, a subservient of USA.
6. Japan, one of few against sanctions on central bank, has already acquired new contracts to replace majority of Iran's oil.
7. Iran closed down (filtered) USA's virtual embassy site (a clear attempt to stir up things) and UK's embassy's web site.
8. Iran captured highly advanced US spy plane and a real US-born Iranian spy working for DOD and BAE Corp.
9. In the eyes of the world (the rest) China and Russia are more trustworthy now than USA and and its allies.
10. In elections, France passes a genocide bill against Turkey (pisses off Turkey accusing France of genocide in Algeria) and USA must keep returning soldiers occupied and AIPAC happy.
11. Iran's oil exports are around 2.4 MB a day. Saudi, another US subservient, can easily make up for that from Red Sea.
12. The Iranian naval exercise covers only 2000 sq. Kilometers, that is barely 2kilometers band from SOH along their shoreline to the Pakistan border.
13. USA Navy 5th Fleet based in Bahrain, yet another USA subservient, with 1000s of guided missiles (some nuclear) is bored and trigger happy (and Iranians know that - remember how they downed an IranAir commercial flight to Dubai with over 300 on board).
14. Another 300-500 nuclear missiles over the Dead Sea are ready for Qom, Tehran, Natanz, Karachi, Islamabad, and god forbid Mecca (then we really have to deal with 1.5B Muslims all over the globe).
And on, and on, and on (let's not forget the rise of the new Nazism in Germany, the new Office of Taliban Affairs in Qatar,...)
So, no worry about Iran to start a/ (or escalate the) war, their plate is full. If anything sparks a full blown war, it will be from the cigars of the oil executives of Exxon, Mobile, Shell and BP in a board room asking "Gentlemen, how else do we keep our investors and Wall Street happy with our stocks." and acting on pressures from special interest lobbies. Of course, we have RM and the kinds to drum up the media for all that.
Last edited by aligator; December 24th, 2011 at 03:59 PM.