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As US Decouples From World, Stocks Decouple From USD
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As US Decouples From World, Stocks Decouple From USD

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As US Decouples From World, Stocks Decouple From USD

UPDATE: ORCL missed. $8.8bn Rev vs $9.23bn exp., 54c EPS vs 57c exp. - Stock -9% AH

With ES (the e-mini S&P futures contract) managing to pull over 40 points off overnight lows (bringing back memories of the 11/30 global bailout rampfest), we saw correlated risk assets disconnect one by one as the day proceeded. First to leave the party was FX carry (or more simply the USD) just before Europe closed. Then Gold stabilized and stopped accelerating and credit markets also went only gently higher/stable in the afternoon. Oil kept on lifting with stocks - helping Energy stocks lead the way (up over 4% on the day) - but even Oil went flat within an hour or so of the close. The only other asset that seemed to be correlating and self-reinforcing was the Treasury complex - most specifically the 10Y and the 2s10s30s butterfly but it was the former that had the highest correlation overall and kept going right to the end. Volume did die away towards the end but surged right at the close as average trade size picked up and ES started to roll over a little - pros selling into the close? Who knows but there was little else supporting ES up here on the day and with the 'news' ahead on LTRO take-up - maybe better safe than sorry.



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ES and TSYs stayed tick for tick as most other risk assets (specifically DXY above) fell away as the day wore on. With an hour to go Financials were the clear winners on the day having trumped Energy stocks, but by the close Financials had lost their leadership role and were over 0.5% off the highs of the day. Of course that didn't take the shine off the day for JEF longs but we remind them that remain long after hours, we have seen these kind of Euro-related jumps before in this non-belwether belwether stock and while bonds did rally today - nothing like as positively as the squeeze in stocks would suggest. Also - and we are reaching here - MS, BAC, and C are still down for the week here as we close - despite a solid up move today.

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HYG continues to outperform - pulling healthily off the late day dive yesterday. We can't help but get more and more suspicious that whenever we see a decent dive in HYG, the market comes roaring back but maybe that's just our paranoia. ES did outperform broad IG and HY credit this afternoon.

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Commodities broadly rose on the equity exuberance with Oil up almost 4% on the week and Copper 1.5% but as is clear in the chart - the afternoon saw relative stability in the face of another 1-1.5% extension in US equity markets. Gold is outperforming the USD this week handily as Silver disappoints so far.



We know it might sound a little silly but this did not feel like a huge short squeeze in other than a few specific names - when we look at the performance of the most shorted names for instance, it was consistently 0.5% outperforming the broad market all day and did not accelerate as it typically does when short squeeezes come on...this felt more like a low volume melt up from an overshoot last night supported by hope for tomorrow - we will see.

UPDATE: ORCL chart - huge volume dump and -9% after hours.

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