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Market Sentiment And Overnight Summary
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Market Sentiment And Overnight Summary

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Market Sentiment And Overnight Summary

Bloomberg analyst TJ Marta summarizes market developments in the last few hours since the death of Kim Jong Il pushed risk aversion, especially in Asia to an extreme:

  • Asia stocks fell, led by Koreaís KOSPI -3.4%, on uncertainty following Kim Jong Ilís death
  • Most EU sovereign yield-to-bund spreads moderately tighter ahead of ECBís 3-yr long-term refinancing operation on December 21 in which banks can borrow unlimited funds using sovereign bonds as collateral despite skepticism as EU finance ministers seek to meet self-imposed deadline for drawing additional aid to debt crisis; most EU stock indexes,
  • U.S. futures modestly higher
  • FX, commodities mixed; exceptions Chinese yuan +2.1 std. devs., 0.2%, after PBoC published rules allowing more overseas funds to be invested in domestic market; corn +2.2 std. devs., 2.7%, after China announced it will purchase in temporary stockpile to support prices
And BBG's James Holloway summarizes broader market sentiment and key events to keep an eye for:

  • Treasury 10-yr yields holding near lowest levels since Oct. as investor confidence that comprehensive solution to EU debt crisis wanes.
  • EU finance ministers to hold call to discuss Ä200b in additional funding through IMF, mechanics of the fiscal compact that was negotiated at Dec. 9 summit
    • LTRO is invitation to embrace carry trade, ease funding woes of euro zone, except that it probably wonít: SocGen
  • Sarkozyís appeal for lenders to take central bank money and buy government bonds will probably go unheeded on concern borrowing the money signals weakness and buying the debt will incur losses
  • ECBís Draghi damped expectations the bank will step up bond purchases to tame rising borrowing costs, telling the Financial Times in an interview published today that the bank canít overstep its mandate
  • Spanish yields fall amid speculation banks bought the debt to use as collateral when the ECB starts offering three-year loans tomorrow
  • North Korea said its people and military back Kim Jong Un, the third son of Kim Jong Il, as leader; Kim Jong Il died Dec. 17 from a heart attack, the official Korean Central News Agency said today, ending a 17-year tenure in which North Korea built nuclear weapons while some 2m of its people died from famine
  • Measures in the derivatives markets show traders expect the euro to fall further amid declining expectations in the ability of EU leaders to contain the debt crisis
  • U.S. branches of foreign banks, struggling to tap American markets for short-term funding amid the European debt crisis, are using up their cash at the fastest pace since at least 2006 and seeking infusions of dollars from their home countries
Key events:

  • 10:00am, NAHB Housing Market Index, Dec., est. 20 from 20
  • 11:00am, Fed to purchase $4.25b-$5b notes in 12/31/2017 to 11/15/2019 range
  • 11:30am, U.S. to sell $29b 3-month, $27b 6-month bills
  • 12:30pm, Fedís Lacker to speak in Charlotte, NC
  • 1:00pm, U.S. to sell $35b 2-yr notes
Source: Bloomberg

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