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What Wednesday 8am Fed Headline Is Being Leaked Now?
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What Wednesday 8am Fed Headline Is Being Leaked Now?

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What Wednesday 8am Fed Headline Is Being Leaked Now?

Forgive our skepticism, but since our earlier market snapshot, most of the broad risk drivers have notably receded from their evening highs - while ES remains at highs. Together with the worst Composite China PMI print in 32 months, we are seeing CONTEXT diverge notably weaker than the 'resilient' ES futures. TSYs did open modestly offered but it is the retracement in FX carry, Silver, Gold, Copper, (and even Oil) that is dragging risk 'off' as the e-mini S&P futures contract holds magically at Friday's closing VWAP. We wonder what comfortable bid is being maintained by them-that-know-better-than-us-what-comes-next? We can only assume that the old adage that the 'worse it gets the better it will be' so BTFD is back in full force but we remind those knife-catchers (alone in the equity market for now this evening) that optical backstops are showing cracks and balance sheets are deleveraging no matter what is done to prop-up sovereigns until Santa arrives.

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Late Friday we saw risk come off notably and ES slowly realize and leak lower to converge (red solid oval). As all the factors opened this evening, we saw CONTEXT and ES converge once again (red dotted oval) then since the broad basket of risk assets has dropped back to unchanged from Friday's close (red arrow) while ES has held up (as seen below - at Friday's closing VWAP level (the light blue arrow) - an often important balance point for institutional traders).

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Copper is 1.3% off its earlier highs, Silver 1% down from its opening level, Gold 0.5% down (back to unch) and even Oil (entirely ignoring the drama in the Middle East for now) is leaking back to only 0.4% up from Friday's close.

30Y TSYs are underperforming for now as EUR leaks back and EURJPY is only 10pips up from Friday's close. Swissy is the worst performer of the majors against the USD (and only one negative) while CAD is the strongest.

Charts: Bloomberg

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