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Turkey Week
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Turkey Week

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Quick Summary
Turkey Week

It's Phil v. Others. Is there a rational argument for taking a bullish position (even if it's still a waiting game short-term)? Here are a few views, including some of Phil's logic regarding a new wave of hyperinflation which is a counter force to the Elliott Wave trajectory and the current trend. ~ Ilene

Turkey Week

(excerpt from Stock World Weekly)

Bearish sentiment is currently running strong in the community of financial analysts. Jim Rogers recently remarked, “We’re certainly going to have more crises coming out of Europe and America; the world is in trouble. The world has been spending staggering amounts of money that it doesn’t have for a few decades now, and it’s all coming home to roost.” He then warned that the crisis will be much worse than the one experienced in 2008: “Last time, America quadrupled its debt. The system is much more extended now, and America cannot quadruple its debt again. Greece cannot double its debt again. The next time around is going to be much worse. In 2002 it was bad, in 2008 it was worse and 2012 or 2013 is going to be worse still. Be careful.” (100% Chance of Crisis, Worse Than 2008: Jim Rogers)

Bloomberg quoted Pimco’s Mohamed El-Erian saying that U.S. economic conditions are “terrifying” and that the odds of the U.S. slipping back into recession are as high as 50%. “We have less economic momentum than we thought we had and we have no policy momentum. What’s most terrifying, we are having this discussion about the risk of recession at a time when unemployment is already too high, at a time when a quarter of homeowners are underwater on their mortgages, at a time when the fiscal deficit is at 9% and at a time when interest rates are at zero.” (Pimco’s El-Erian Says U.S. Economic Setting ‘Terrifying’)

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Stock trader Allan of AllanTrends took a similarly bearish stance on the stock market based on his technical analyses - Elliott Wave analysis and trend analysis. He wrote, “IWM leads this Weekend Commentary because it generated a preferred wave count, the first of the major indexes to do so in their weekly models, and because of the dire implications of that count. The Wave 5 target for IWM is under 30. That is over a 50% decline in the Russell 2000, which would pretty much extend to all other indexes... The trends are all down, which the Elliott Wave count confirms, Europe confirms, the financials confirm, Iran confirms, MF Global confirms, shall I go on? If you’re in the business of gambling trading, these opportunities are few and far between, but are not slam dunks by a long shot. Nonetheless, this one is here now. Govern yourselves accordingly.” (New World Disorder)

All the doom and gloom in the headlines makes it easy to miss news like Wednesday’s report from the Association of American Railroads which showed gains in weekly rail traffic. Weekly rail traffic was up 1.1% compared to the same week a year ago. There was also a report from the American Trucking Associations showing that truck tonnage increased 0.5% in October, on top of a 1.5% increase in September.

Of course, there are serious problems needing resolutions. The continuing European Black Debt drama appears to be coming to a head, with yields on various bond issues climbing rapidly higher. On Friday, Phil wrote, “Rates WILL go higher – they have to. At a certain point, there’s simply not enough money to lend to cover everyone’s debt rollovers. The only way for countries to cover their debts is to either A) Find more people to lend money to them (possibly by raising rates to attract more cash) or B) Print more money.

“'A' is hard, because we’ve kind of already tapped out all the lenders, and now we can only take money out of stocks or commodities, but then we will exhaust those as well, and it doesn’t matter how much interest you offer – all you are doing is competing for money that someone else needs to borrow. Clearly, if one Nation collapses, we’re all screwed, so what good does it do us to offer 8% when Europe offers 7% if all we accomplish is bankrupting Europe? (Click here for a great chart of ALL THE MONEY IN THE WORLD)

“That leaves B – PRINT MORE MONEY – and we’re already doing that, of course. But now we have to give some to the poor people as well, through wage increases and stimulus, to kick-start the flow of money – which will make more money available for our Government to borrow.

“THAT’s my bullish premise – it’s very simple, no one is going to let the World end. In the end, our leaders will do what they have to do to keep things going, and what they have to do is lead us down the path to hyper-inflation, which will allow all debts to be paid – albeit with money that is worth less (worthless) - but we will avoid all the messiness of default and placate the masses by handing out raises and bonuses that they’d better spend fast or it will melt, and banks will pay a reasonable rate of return for money saved so old people can once again live off their savings (i.e., T-Bills) and, of course, the prices of homes can once again shoot up, like they did in the 70?s and the 00’s, to make our nation’s 100M homeowners feel rich again as the homes they bought for $300,000 sell for $1M and they pay off all their debts and have $500,000 to spare, which they put in the bank at 7% and get a $35,000 annual income to supplement their dwindling Social Security payments.”
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As the NYMO chart on the left shows, equities are currently well in the oversold range. For now, we are “cashy and cautious” again, staying mostly on the sidelines, keeping our powder dry and looking for confirmation of a near-term bottom before doing any bargain hunting.

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