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Mini Flash Crash? ES Plunges By 2 Standard Deviations In 5 Minutes
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Mini Flash Crash? ES Plunges By 2 Standard Deviations In 5 Minutes

  #1 (permalink)
Quick Summary
Mini Flash Crash? ES Plunges By 2 Standard Deviations In 5 Minutes

The last 5 minutes of today's somewhat tempestuous day saw a rather dramatic plunge in ES on very heavy volume which could easily be flash-crash-worthy in its description. Having tested VWAP a number of times during the day and been unable to make any progress above it (suggesting program selling was active), the final desperate straw broke the camel's back into the close as ES dropped 1% in less than 5 minutes as volume dwarfed the rest of the day with machines fighting each other to exit at a reasonable price. Furthermore, the drop in ES was very much standalone as other risk assets did not correlate instantly and only started to drop after a delay led by equities plunge. ES is holding these losses after-hours at a steady 1160. Where's Waddell & Reed when we need them?

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  #2 (permalink)
Elite Member
Raleigh North Carolina
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Ninja Trader
Favorite Futures: ES, levered ETF's
 
Posts: 38 since Nov 2011
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RE

On big down days, I really look to go short in the last 30 min of trade, especially if its off its lows because the last 15 min is when the ETF's do their balancing. At least thats what I hear. The bigger the day the more reliable. Until you get to the true reversal day. When the pit locals start stubbornly selling into a rally the last half hour, thats my tipoff.
Thats just my observation, It could be something different

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  #3 (permalink)
Elite Member
Raleigh North Carolina
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Ninja Trader
Favorite Futures: ES, levered ETF's
 
Posts: 38 since Nov 2011
Thanks: 6 given, 48 received

dead cat


Also keep in mind that the lack of short covering since this large rollover says alot about the lighter vol here.
which to me says we are more in the middle of this move than the end. two big gap down days kept a lot of shorts out. So and any good rallies should be more or less, real buyers.

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