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From Bad To Worse As Europe Opens
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From Bad To Worse As Europe Opens

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From Bad To Worse As Europe Opens

The overnight news of worries over Dexia's bailout deal and the weak Chinese PMI print did nothing to help the generally poor sentiment as the US closed on the stress test news. Equity and Treasury Futures (as cash was closed in Tokyo) were in risk off mode but stabilized with ES around 1170 (-1% from US close). With Europe opening and TSYs trading once again, CONTEXT shows that the sell-off is broad based and supports equity weakness for now. European sovereigns are opening generally higher in yield and spread across the board with Ireland the stand-out currently. France and Belgium are also weak performers (Dexia?) followed by Italy and Spain. European credit has gapped down on the open with senior and sub financials worst performers (+7bps and +14bps respectively) followed by XOver and Main (+11bps and +3.5bps) - in line with US underperformance for now. Bloomberg's BE500 equity index just opened gap down around 1% but is outperforming credit for now as EURUSD touches 1.3440 again.

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As TSYs reopened 2-3bps lower in yield, CONTEXT converged rapidly to ES weakness as broad weakness is clear across every risk asset. Copper and Silver are falling the most with Oil and Gold (back above $1700) in sync for a small period into the European open but diverging now (oil up and gold down). Oil and Silver are perfectly in sync with USD's strength this week at around 0.6%.

European Sovereigns will likely set the tone once again and spreads are mostly wider relative to Bunds. Ireland standsout as the weakest performer - jumping to its widest since 8/25 as GDP estimates are revised but decompression is rife in almost every segment of the market.

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AUD weakness is still the most impressive this week as carry unwinds and economic prints careen into this once unstoppable currency. EUR lost ground, trading back to 1.3450, as DXY is back up to the highs of the week at 78.5 (+0.6% on the week).

Chart: Bloomberg and Capital Context

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