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Europe Opening A Little Shaky - And No ECB To The Rescue Yet With BTPs
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Europe Opening A Little Shaky - And No ECB To The Rescue Yet With BTPs

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Europe Opening A Little Shaky - And No ECB To The Rescue Yet With BTPs

With EURUSD trading back to overnight lows at 1.3740 (100pips off its overnight highs), BTPs just opened 8bps wider to Bunds at +465bps. Gold is clinging to $1770 as Silver, Oil, and Copper drop notably thanks to USD strength. S&P futures are 16pts off overnight highs now having retraced almost 75% of friday's late swing higher. US TSY yields are compressing but relatively parallel for now and in line with Bunds. With Goldman and SocGen now calling for an EU recession in the next 2 quarters and Goldman suggesting short XOver credit, the situation is rapidly spiraling.

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5Y to 10Y BTPs are all in the 6.4-6.5% yield now as 30Y BTPs just broke 7%. We would expect JEF to suffer more on Monday morning as the ITA 2s10s curve flattened 18bps so far this more and from their exposures, they are positioned for a curve steepener - ouch! No ECB buying yet either!!


Credit markets are not happy either with XOver +25bps, Main +5bps, SENFIN +11bps, and SovX +9bps

After initially trading very rich to broad risk assets (CONTEXT), it is clear that ES is starting to gather pace and lead risk-off (this can be tracked here in real-time - delayed 30mins for non-subscribers).

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FX markets are also starting to get active and CHF is losing ground rapidly against the USD. Gold continues to hold up as the rest of the commodities and PM complex loses ground.

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As we post all these trends are extending and ES is dropping notably.

Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context



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