Improving Employment or Dead Cat Bounce - News and Current Events | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


Improving Employment or Dead Cat Bounce
Updated: Views / Replies:654 / 1
Created: by Quick Summary Attachments:0

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 90,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors – all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you don’t need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

Improving Employment or Dead Cat Bounce

  #1 (permalink)
Quick Summary
Improving Employment or Dead Cat Bounce

Courtesy of Lee Adler of the Wall Street Examiner

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).
The real measure of sustained and sustainable improvement in the US economy isn't just total employment; it's full time employment. Part time jobs normally don't pay enough to even pay the rent (the rent is too damn high), let alone support a family. When business won't invest in hiring full time workers, that may be good for their profits in the short run, but it can't support sustained economic stability, and it certainly won't promote long term growth.

By that standard, even though today's jobs report showed great growth, it is not the kind of growth that will sustain a stable or growing economy. Instead the numbers show an economy retarded by the dead weight of too many people not working.

The government's household survey showed an increase of 476,000 full time workers in October, based on the actual, not seasonally fictionalized, survey data. That's the best October performance since 1996. Sounds great, right?

Full time employment peaks in July or August and then typically declines until January. This year's drop since July is 303,000. That is the best performance since the data on full time employment started being tabulated in 1968. This is very good news indeed!

The devil, as always, is in the details. The number of those employed who usually work full time this October was reported to be 113.5 million. That's better than the last two years. It's an increase of 1.86 million full time jobs since October 2009, for an average increase of over 77,000 per month.

Therein lies the problem. The percentage of the population working full time now stands at 47.2%, which is hardly better than last October's 47.1%, and the same as 2009's 47.2%. Even in October 2008, in the pits of the financial collapse, the percentage of the population working full time stood at 51.2%. In fact, we have to go all the way back to 1975, when fewer women were in the work force, to find a ratio this low in October.

So while it's great that the numbers appear to be improving, we have to ask ourselves, "Improving from what?" These numbers remain equivalent to the worst levels of the past 43 years.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


October's improvement may even prove to be a fleeting mirage. Federal wage tax collections for the full month of October were down by 1.3% on a per diem basis versus September. The BLS household survey is conducted earlier in the month. Back on October 20, withholding tax collections for the month to date were running 1.7% ahead of September. That's consistent with the gain in October employment which the BLS reported.

However, by the end of the month, that advantage seems to have disappeared. Over the last 10 days, withholding tax collections are virtually flat versus the 10 days through October 3. Furthermore, in real terms, adjusted for the change in employment costs, withholding for the past 10 days is down 3.7% from last year. Some, but not all, of that is due to the cut in payroll taxes. The data suggests that no more people are working today than were working a year ago.

As the graphic shows, the US employment picture has not even begun to recover from the devastation that took place from late 2007 through mid 2009. It's just laying there dead in the water. This is not recovery. Furthermore, real time withholding tax data, which is not subject to survey error or statistical manipulation, hint at recent weakening. This data suggests that the the signs of improvement in the BLS data were little more than a dead cat bounce from brutally bad levels.

Stay up to date with the machinations of the Fed, Treasury, Primary Dealers and foreign central banks in the US market, and get regular updates on the US housing market in the Wall Professional Edition, Money Liquidity, and Real Estate Package. Click this link to try WSE’s Professional Edition risk free for 30 days!

Pic credit: Guidepostings



More on ZeroHedge...

Reply to share your thoughts on this current event.

 
  #2 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Austin, TX
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: IRT
Favorite Futures: Guitar
 
Posts: 82 since Nov 2011
Thanks: 2 given, 12 received

no idea

when I think of all the jobs that have gone away due to internet and due to outsourcing, makes my head spin. I used to own a printing company. Was thinking last night of how annoying paper has become. You know? You don't see as much in your mailbox, the one at the street, not your email box. When I think of all the products and services the internet has replaced and when I think of all the basic jobs that are now outsourced, makes me wonder what the heck people, regular people, are doing for work. I am all for the internet. It is a thing of wonder, but, really, people need to work and serve and have something productive to do. No macro economist here, just a regular guy, wondering.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to rwhitt for this post:

Reply



futures io > > > > Improving Employment or Dead Cat Bounce

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

Linda Bradford Raschke: Reading The Tape

Elite only

Adam Grimes: TBA

Elite only

NinjaTrader: TBA

January

Ran Aroussi: TBA

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
ECO2New Indicator - question on improving it Todd NinjaTrader 5 January 4th, 2014 05:20 PM
JPMorgan Warns Of An Even More Disappointing Employment Index kbit News and Current Events 0 August 1st, 2011 07:49 PM
Market's Big Question: Real Rally or 'Dead Cat Bounce'? Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 July 7th, 2011 04:10 PM
looking for bounce JTrain Bonds and Interest Rates Trading 14 March 2nd, 2011 08:44 AM
US Employment Seen Falling, Private Hiring Tepid Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 September 3rd, 2010 03:20 AM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 06:44 AM.

Copyright © 2017 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2017-12-12 in 0.33 seconds with 19 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.145.51.250