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LaVorgna 'Guesses' 3 Standard Deviations Above More Confident Consensus For Non-Farm
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LaVorgna 'Guesses' 3 Standard Deviations Above More Confident Consensus For Non-Farm

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LaVorgna 'Guesses' 3 Standard Deviations Above More Confident Consensus For Non-Farm

Tomorrow's much-watch-moment, aside from NI HEADS on the Bloomberg Terminal for every second-by-second market-ramping/crushing headline from Europe, is the non-farm payroll print. With a median estimate of +95k across the 91 'economists' that Bloomberg keeps an eye on, we did notice that the dispersion is considerably lower than normal. Not one 'expert' sees a drop in payrolls with Sean Incremona (4Cast) and Pierre-Livier Beffy (Exane) at the low-end with +50k and everyone's favorite talking-head, Joe LaVorgna of Deutsche, topping us out at +150k. At almost 3 standard deviations above consensus, Joe is going for the home-run as we note the last time he was this 'positive', back in May/June 2011, NFP missed expectations dramatically - printing below the lowest estimate.

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The last time Jovial Joe was the at the upper-end of estimates didn't work out so well for him (or the US economy) and with confidence seemingly very high - given the relatively narrow dispersion between high and low estimates - what could possibly go wrong?

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Goldman Sachs are around 1 standard deviation below consensus at +75k and Morgan Stanley's David Greenlaw is just over 1 standard deviation above consensus at +125k.

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One final thing we noticed while looking at the NFP time series, is the ever-decreasing absolute change in the NFP change from month-to-month of this naturally noisy time series. In the 1940s and 50s, the change in the change was quite volatile (red), from the 1960s through the 90s, it began to calm down (orange), and since 2000, the change in the change in NFP has been downright muted with only one exceptional print more than 2 standard deviations away from long-run means. It's almost as if someone was smoothing the series to avoid scary outliers?

Charts: Bloomberg



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